The first day of the US Open takes place on Thursday when the third major of the year gets up and running with the field seeing the South Course at Torrey Pines for the first time in a competitive format which gives us all the chance to assess how much different it will play from the Farmers Insurance Open earlier in the year.
The 156 players who head off on either the first or the tenth tee will all have the same aim – to shoot a good score and position themselves nicely on the early leaderboard and set them up nicely for a big week.
First Round Leader
As ever in a major championship the first market we look at is the first round leader market. Before we select anyone we need to know the format and the weather. The format is that we have a morning and an afternoon wave but the weather isn’t expected to change too dramatically. The Poa Annua greens here do though. They get rough at the Farmers and twice the footfall will be passing through them on Thursday so a morning wave player might be the one to focus on.
I’ll pick out a couple of players from the morning then with the 2019 winner Gary Woodland the first of those. He won his US Open on the Californian coast at Pebble Beach and can start well here. He seems to have a liking for this course because he has twice shot 66 in the Farmers Insurance Open and is no stranger to starting tournaments well. He was in the top 10 at stumps on day one at the USPGA Championship and in the top five at the Wells Fargo Championship. He isn’t putting four rounds together yet but he drives the ball well and morning conditions can help him post a score.
The other player I like is Ryan Palmer whose last five opening rounds here in the Farmers Insurance Open read 68 66 67 72 and 66. They won’t all be on the South Course but hi second rounds in those years were 77 67 67 62 and 70 so whichever way round they were his opening score in two of those years on this course has been either 66 or 67. He has a plum morning draw and someone who drives the ball as well as he does has a chance to get out there and post a score again. Palmer sits 30 on the PGA Tour in round 1 scoring and with many of those above him either not here or in the afternoon wave Palmer looks a big price here.
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Thursday 3 Balls
As ever in the first round of a golf tournament the field go out in threes in the opening round of the tournament. The headline trio in the morning wave sees Brooks Koepka out alongside Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas at 15.29 BST. The other appealing group sees Phil Mickelson out with Max Homa and Xander Schauffele off the tenth tee at 15.51 BST. The afternoon wave is headlined by the groups of defending champion Bryson DeChambeau, Masters winner Hideki Matsuyama and Tyler Strafaci at 21.14 BST while Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose go out at 21.36 BST. I’ve had a look through the card and like four bets for the three balls on Thursday.
Francesco Molinari/Henrik Stenson/Shane Lowry
Match tees off at 15.29 BST
The first group I like from a betting point of view is three winners of The Open out alongside each other when Francesco Molinari goes out with the host of the Scandinavian Mixed last week in Henrik Stenson and the current Claret Jug holder Shane Lowry.
At his very best Molinari is as straight as they come and in firm conditions might have been competitive around here but he’s not even remotely close to that form and he’s been inactive for much of the year so I have this as a match between Lowry and Stenson. In truth there isn’t a lot between these two except for form where Lowry has a significant edge. He also hasn’t been on both sides of the Atlantic over the last few weeks either. Stenson was pretty honest about his game in interviews last week – it isn’t in great shape. Lowry is going well and should have this three ball under control.
Dave Coupland/Taylor Pendrith/Wade Ormsby
Match tees off at 20.30 BST
The second bet I like in the three balls sees the European Tour pair of Dave Coupland and Wade Ormsby going out alongside the Canadian player who plies his trade mostly on the Korn Ferry Tour in Taylor Pendrith.
I’m not chucking Coupland under the bus without respect here. He qualified from the European Tour mini Order of Merit so he arrives here in decent form but with the greatest respect to those tournaments this is a different kettle of fish and he is making his Stateside debut here and it makes sense to expect him to struggle. Ormsby is more likely to go well but he is an extremely short hitter which makes me think that the Canadian bomber is the one to be on here. He gets it right out there and that length advantage could be crucial here. He is used to these sorts of conditions and actually at finished T23 at Winged Foot last year. There is no better form guide in this trio than that so I’m happy to jump on him.
Dustin Johnson/Rory McIlroy/Justin Rose
Match tees off at 21.36 BST
The third bet I have on the opening day sees three former US Open champions out alongside each other when the 2016 champion Dustin Johnson goes out with the 2011 winner Rory McIlroy and the man who won in 2013 in Justin Rose.
I actually think there is a little bit of value in Rose for a small bet here. Johnson doesn’t look in the greatest form to me and although he is as long as they come off the tee that isn’t going to count for much if the rest of the game isn’t in perfect nick. I wouldn’t want to load up against him but I’m happy to take him on. McIlroy seems to flatter to deceive too often at the minute and has become a poor starter in majors. Rose isn’t. He’s already led at The Masters this year with that opening round 65 and the year he won the Farmers Insurance Open he carded a 66 in his first round on the South Course. Rose will be comfortable here and while four rounds might be beyond him a good first one certainly isn’t.
Wyndham Clark/Matthias Schmid/Matthew Southgate
Match tees off at 22.20 BST
The third to last group out off of the tenth tee on Thursday is where my final bet comes from when the American powerhouse Wyndham Clark goes out alongside the German amateur Matthias Schmid and the Englishman Matthew Southgate.
I expect the American to win this three ball. I’m not sure an amateur is going to cope with Torrey Pines regardless of how good they are and while Southgate hits a decent ball and should have won the European Open a couple of weeks ago on a long track, this is a much difference scene entirely. He has only played one American major when he missed the cut at Shinnecock Hills so this is a big week for him but I don’t expect him to do much. Clark has played the Farmers here three times with a 35-MC-32 record but his opening rounds were 69-69-67. They might not all be on the South Course but the first year he put a 67 alongside it in the second round so one of the rounds would have been on it. He has the length to be comfortable on this beast and should feed off less suited foe here.
Tips
Back G.Woodland First Round Leader for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Pendrith to beat D.Coupland & W.Ormsby for a 3/10 stake at 2.38 with Betfred
Back R.Palmer First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.Lowry to beat F.Molinari & H.Stenson for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Coral
Back him here:
Back J.Rose to beat D.Johnson & R.McIlroy for a 2/10 stake at 3.75 with William Hill
Back him here:
Back W.Clark to beat M.Schmid & M.Southgate for a 3/10 stake at 2.05 with Bet365
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