The classic season is already well underway in England and we are just two weeks out from the next two taking place however over in Ireland the magic set of races are about to get going and they do so on Saturday with the 2000 Guineas.
The Curragh is the venue for the race which has a much more select field than we are used to seeing and with a very warm favourite to boot. That doesn’t create a huge amount of value but we have found a horse we like.
3.20 Curragh: Irish 2000 Guineas
Preview
We head over to Ireland for the first of the Irish Classics, the 2000 Guineas, and what a disappointing turnout we have. There’s a field of just the 9 runners, headed by Native Trail who went off a short priced favourite for the Newmarket equivalent but finished 2nd behind stablemate Coroebus. Previous to that, he’d won his first 5 starts including 2 Group 1s. One of those wins was in the National Stakes at this track so his chances are well touted as he’ll be better back on a more conventional track & doesn’t appear to have a Coroebus in opposition. He should be very hard to beat but his price reflects that, trading at a best price of 2/5. His closest market rival is Buckaroo from the Joseph O’Brien yard & whilst he’s the most likely challenger, odds of 4/1 appear skinny. He really only has one piece of exceptional form in the book but to be fair, that was last time out when he ran out a convincing 4 length winner of the Tetrarch over course & distance, ahead of one of today’s rivals Wexford Native. Previous to that, he’s finished behind Atomic Jones & one place in front of Duke De Sessa, both of whom reopposes.
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Contenders
Ivy League is the Aiden O’Brien / Ryan Moore hope & he’s a progressive type that didn’t see the racetrack until 8 weeks ago. After finishing midfield in his maiden, he won his next 2 including a handicap but was behind Pretreville in a Group 3 on his most recent start. He definitely needs to step up significantly on what he’s shown so far to be involved. The champion, Colin Keane, rides Atomic Jones & he has a chance. He won both starts as a 2 year old, including the Group 2 Champions Juvenile, and then finished 9 lengths 4th behind leading Derby hope Stone Age when reappearing in the Derby Trial. Duke De Sessa was a head behind in that race so the pair are closely matched although I feel Atomic Jones may be more suited to the step back in trip.
Betting
At the prices, I cannot resist a nibble on the other British raider in the shape of Imperial Fighter. He was his maiden at Goodwood & then continued to improve despite not finding the winner’s enclosure again in 3 more starts at 2. He was 2nd in the Group 3 Acomb where he finished in front of Dewhurst 2nd Dubawi Legend before then running Guineas winner Coroebus to 2 lengths in the Autumn Stakes. He arguably put up an even better performance on his last start at 2 where he finished 5th, just 2 lengths behind the winner, in the Futurity. That day, he took a keen hold so the fact he ran Luxembourg, who was Guineas 3rd & favourite for the Derby before suffering a setback, so close is a big plus. His prep for this was in a Listed race at Newcastle on the all weather he raced freely & didn’t get a clear passage, and only managed 3rd. He’s sure to be spot on today, has a good jockey booking & the ease in the ground is massively in his favour. Some of this field look to be middle distance types but this one is a definite miler, backed up by the fact his only other fancy entry is in the St James’ Palace. Whilst he may not have the speed for Native Trail, I think he could easily be good enough to see off the rest so I’ve also taken him in the without the favourite market.
Tips
Back Imperial Fighter (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back Imperial Fighter (e/w) in the ‘without Native Trail’ market for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-3)
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