The big night of the Breeders Cup, culminating in the Classic where Bob Baffert holds the strongest of strong hands, with Arrogate bidding to follow up last year’s win. I cannot be playing in a race dominated by 1 trainer, Aiden O’Brien like, so I’ve looked further down the card for 4 bets.
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8.14 Del Mar: Filly & Mare Sprint
It seems like Unique Bella is unbeatable assessing her recent form but she’s yet to race in a Grade 1 and her times haven’t been over sparkling. That suggest there is value further down the market and the one I’m siding with is Paulassilverlining.
She’s won 3 of her 4 starts this term, including 2 Grade 1s which is something no other runner in the field has done. She has a lovely draw on the inside in stall 2 and is a real fighter, often prevailing by the smallest of margins. Her last 3 wins were all by a neck.
She has drifted to a big price off the back of a disappointing 5th of 7 but that was a race where the pace wasn’t particularly fast and didn’t suit our selection. Interestingly, her trainer has given her a 10 week break since and has been quoted as saying ‘she is training as well as far’. At 12/1, she looks a worthy each way play.
Tips
Back Paulassilverlining (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
9.37 Del Mar: Sprint
This is another race with a short priced jolly in Drefong, the winner of this 12 months ago. He’s surely hard to beat but I’d be worried that, last time here, he unshipped his jockey 100 yards after the start. The opposition looks pretty good too so I’ll be looking elsewhere for a bet.
Current 2nd favourite, Roy H, is the one I cannot get away from. He’s won 4 of his last 5 starts and was mightily unlucky in the one he finished 2nd in, when loose running Drefong carried him very wide off the turn. Otherwise, I’m certain he’d have won. What is interesting is that the selection was favourite, ahead of Drefong that day, so why is he now 3 times the price.
Admittedly, Drefong has won a Grade 1 by 4 lengths but our horse has also landed a Grade 1 in untroubled fashion. At 5/1, he looks an each way bet to nothing.
Tips
WON – Back Roy H (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 6.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
10.19 Del Mar: Mile
Back on turf where the European challenge looks strong with the likes of Ribchester and Roly Poly lining up. The favourite, however, is the US trained World Approval and he has a big chance.
However, I’m going with the French challenger Zelzal. The French have a good record in this race and, whilst the form doesn’t look special this season so far, he has had plenty of excuses. Soft ground does not suit so you can ignore his last 2 starts; that said, he ran a super race last time out when racing widest all of the way to only go down by under 2 lengths.
He’s a high class horse having won the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat last season and has conditions to suit here. He has a nice draw and travels well which is a bonus in this type of race. The owners have 2 in the race, the other being front runner Karar and I’m certain instructions will be to make this a truly run race that will suit our horse.
Tips
Back Zelzal (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
11.37 Del Mar: Turf
This looks like it could all be about Highland Reel in a bid to repeat last year’s win but I cannot imagine the rest of the field will let him have such an easy time in front this time. He is, without doubt, the picks of the Europeans, but I think there’s a US raider that gone unnoticed and could well outrun his odds.
That horse is hold up performer Sadlers Joy who has a wide draw that doesn’t worry me with his run style. He did win the Grade 1 Sword Dancer swooping fast and late to land a comfortable victory by half a length but has had excuses either side of that. Slowish ground was an issue last time out and a wide challenge in the Bowling Green took its toll late on 3 starts back.
His trainer is talking up his chances and thinks he has one as good as anything. That’s good enough for me at the current odds.
Tips
PLACED – Back Sadlers Joy (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
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