The race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup, takes place in the early hours of Tuesday morning and finding the winner looks as difficult as ever. However, I’m going to have a go and am taking 3 at big each way prices.
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4.00 Flemington: Melbourne Cup
In an attempt to narrow the field, I’d suggest using a couple of very strong trends; in the last 13 years, all winners had seen the racetrack inside the last 28 days and we haven’t had an English or Irish trained winner. Those trends are unsurprising; fitness is important whilst travelling halfway across the world is likely to take its toll. However, applying those 2 discounts 13 of the 23 runners, leaving us with just 10 to focus on. Of the 13 to go, it includes the front 4 in the betting; last year’s winner Almandin as well as Marmelo, Johannes Vermeer and Rekindling.
There are 3 that catch my eye and, at the prices, I’m happy to take them all. The most fancied of the 3 is Amelies Star, who currently trades at 20/1. She is one of two mares in the field who was last seen in Caulfield Cup where she finished down the field after using up too much energy early doors to get a position from her wide draw. She was bang in the mix until a furlong out and that run can be ignored. Previous to that, she trotted up in the Cummings Stakes, accounting for Almandin in the process and is now better off with that rival too. Her stamina is taken on trust but, aside from that, she has everything in her favour.
Ventura Storm is my 2nd selection and was formerly trained in the UK where his best form was his St Leger 2nd. He ran 2 good races here over inadequate distances when behind Humidor where he didn’t get any sort of a run and then a well beaten 2nd by wonder horse Winx. He suffered a bruised heel in the Caulfield Cup last time out and provided he’s back to full fitness, he will go well with a better jockey on board, a decent draw and the longer trip all big positives.
The final selection, and the biggest price, is Libran. He’s another who was formerly trained in the UK but has settled into life down under very well. He’s a hold up type so will need luck in running but he looks better the further he goes and I feel he will be running on past many beaten horses off the home turn; I’m just hoping he’s not too far back. Last time out in the Moon Valley Gold Cup, he was held up and finished best of all but was never quite getting to the winner. He looks a massive price at 50/1.
Tips
Back Amelies Star (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Paddy Power (⅕ odds 1-6)
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Back Ventura Storm (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-6)
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Back Libran (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 Ladbrokes (⅕ odds 1-5)
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