There is one last market to look at ahead of the beginning of the Sky Bet League One season on Saturday and that is the top goalscorer market. This market is always a popular one across the divisions so we’ll have a look at the market here.
Recent Winners
2017-18 – Jack Marriott
2016-17 – Billy Sharp
2015-16 – Will Grigg
2014-15 – Joe Garner
2013-14 – Sam Baldock
2012-13 – Paddy Madden
2011-12 – Jordan Rhodes
2010-11 – Craig Mackail Smith
2009-10 – Rickie Lambert
2008-09 – Rickie Lambert
Market Leaders
Brett Pitman is the favourite to be the top scorer this season. The former Bournemouth striker chased home Jack Marriott in vain for the Golden Boot last term and with Pompey expected to go well this season it stands to reason that he will go well with it but he’s a top price of 9/1 and even though he is a standout goalscorer he is not getting any younger at 30 and any injuries could be an issue. He’s respected but is too short for me.
Charlie Wyke has recently made the move to Sunderland and he is a 14/1 shot to win the Golden Boot. He bagged 15 goals in this division for a stuttering Bradford City side last season. With decent supply from the likes of Aiden McGeady you would think the chances will come along regularly and he will be a leading player.
Lyle Taylor is a 14/1 shot to top the goal charts and his move to Charlton Athletic should see him build on the 14 strikes he managed to notch for AFC Wimbledon last season. His pace will scare defences and you would expect him to be the focal point of the Charlton attack so he is another who must be respected albeit I fancy he might find one or two better than him at this stage.
Danny Hylton, Jason Cummings and Kieffer Moore are all 16/1 to lead the goalscoring. I keep reading about doubts over whether Hylton can play at this level but in this Luton side who create tons of chances he’ll be fine. My fear is he’ll miss too many matches to lead the scoring. Jason Cummings went well at Rangers last season and Peterborough usually score plenty of goals but I wonder if that will change under Steve Evans this term. If it does 16/1 feels a little short on him while Moore has a huge reputation but for a youngster to fire Barnsley back to the Championship there is a lot of pressure on his shoulders and I wonder if he’ll cope with it.
Profile
By and large it is promoted sides who offer up the top scorer in this division with the exception of last season although it is fair to say now that Jack Marriott was playing a league below himself so I’m going to stick with teams I expect to be in the promotion mix, certainly for a main bet at least.
I also like players who will be the focal point of the attack for their side. I’m not really interested in teams who will play two up front and share the goals around which rules out the likes of Luton players and Peterborough. I’ve come up with two I’m happy to back at the prices.
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Betting
My main bet is going to be on Charlie Wyke. He ticks every box that I like in this market and when we factor in that only five players outscored him last season and three of those are in a different division now he looks a leading player to me despite missing the first 2-3 games with an injury. They are against title rivals Charlton and Luton so he might not have had much joy in them anyway. I’m convinced Sunderland will go well this season and the longer the campaign goes on and they build up a run of form the more goals will come. He is decent enough on the ground and a threat in the air. You won’t see him outside the width of the box too often and at 14/1 he looks a great bet.
We saw last season that League Two can produce the leading scorer in this division so I’ll take a chance that Billy Kee can make the step up here. Kee will take penalties and set pieces for Accrington and he’s another fox in the box sort of striker but he has a decent shot on him from distance as my lot found out when he scored the winner from 25 yards at Kenilworth Road last season. Accrington might struggle but Kee will score a significant percentage of their goals and that could be enough to see him in the mix at a fair price.
Tips
Back C.Wyke Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 15.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Back B.Kee Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
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