The Ryder Cup is looming large on the horizon but before all the attention turns to Paris we have one last event on the European Tour when the Portugal Masters takes place from Thursday through to Sunday.
Given what is taking place next week and the fact the PGA Tour ends this week you would expect the field to be a bit below par here but that is not the case at all and if Lucas Bjerregaard is to successfully defend his title he will need to see off some seasoned campaigners.
Recent Winners
2017 – Lucas Bjerregarrd
2016 – Padraig Harrington
2015 – Andy Sullivan
2014 – Alex Levy
2013 – David Lynn
2012 – Shane Lowry
2011 – Tom Lewis
2010 – Richard Green
2009 – Lee Westwood
2008 – Alvaro Quiros
The Course
We are back at the Victoria Golf Course this week although it has been renamed the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course. It is a par 71 which measures 7,146 yards and really and truly it is a course to be taken apart by these top class players.
The fairways are wide here and the greens are huge so all things being equal this is going to come down to a putting contest and if you look through the past winners here they are all decent putters with wonderful short games. Look for those who have been putting well in recent times who are capable of scoring low.
The Field
Generally you won’t see players in the Ryder Cup competing in Europe the week before the tournament but two men heading to Paris next week in a playing capacity are here in Thorbjorn Olesen and Sergio Garcia.
Lucas Bjerregaard is here to defend the title while former champions Padraig Harrington, Andy Sullivan, Richard Green, Shane Lowry and Tom Lewis are all taking the chance of landing the title once again. Charl Schwartzel, Eddie Pepperell and Chris Wood all tee it up this week as does three-time winner this season Matt Wallace.
Market Leaders
Lucas Bjerregaard is a 16/1 favourite this week and he comes in here with three top 10 finishes in succession. Even so he looks mighty short to me. I don’t really like taking defending champions although he has probably been helped with the fact that two men teeing it up next week are in the field. He is playing well and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is in the mix again but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if there are one or two too good for him.
Thorbjorn Olesen and Sergio Garcia are the joint second favourites at 18/1. The first thing to ask about the pair of them is whether they will be focused on this week or if they will have more than one eye on next week. The latter would be completely understandable. With that in mind I can’t be backing either even though technically this should be right up Olesen’s street.
Charl Schwartzel and Shane Lowry are next in the betting at 20/1. Lowry has won this tournament before but there haven’t been many signs that he is about to go in again. Schwartzel would rate the better chance of the two but I’m not exactly about to break walls down to back him either.
Andy Sullivan, Eddie Pepperell and Chris Wood all come next in the betting at 22/1. Sullivan is a winner and a runner up around here but he’s another who is not in the best form at the minute. Both Pepperell and Wood have offered much stronger form in recent times and would be considered stronger but I think the value lies elsewhere. It is 30/1 the field bar those named.
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Main Bets
Hideto Tanihara is one of the better putters on the European Tour when he has the short stick working and that has certainly been the case in the last few weeks. He has three top five finishes in his last five starts and is representing the sort of form that will go strongly here. He is decent enough off the tee and is likely to find these greens without any trouble so assuming the short stick keeps cooperating he should put himself right in the mix this week.
Jorge Campillo is another one who is a strong putter and I believe it will only be a matter of time before he goes in and it could be a tournament like this where he is close to home and maybe a second tier event without being disrespectful that he goes in. He offered up four solid rounds last week and on another course that plays to his strengths. Campillo doesn’t make many tee to green errors and on the greens only seven men gain more strokes than him on the entire tour and a number of those don’t tee it up here. At 50/1 he looks a solid bet.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three more players who are putting it well. One has a dream short game and the other two pound it which is no bad thing around here either. Pablo Larrazabal is making up for lost time this year after injuries has put paid to a lot of it but he is improving all the time and arrives here with a pair of top 20s to his name. His record here isn’t the best but I would imagine he’s been there for the craic most of the time given that he has usually been rubber stamped for Dubai. That isn’t the case this week so I’m expecting a serious Pablo and on this course that should be a dangerous Pablo.
Haydn Porteous can belt the ball a million miles and in the hot and dry air similar to his home land I expect him to run hot this week. Interestingly in recent times it isn’t just his distance that has caught the eye. His putting is coming on as well and if he can keep the ball in play, which really shouldn’t be too much of a test around here, and the short stick plays ball he should not be far away. His form is solid without that truly special week. That could come here.
I’m convinced Nino Bertasio is going to go in soon. He just can’t seem to string four rounds together but on this course he should be able to if he can continue his putting form. He has the length and the accuracy to get involved here and if he can get some putts to drop he won’t be far away. His tee to green game was bang on in Switzerland and his putting was flawless last week. If he can combine the two he is a real runner.
Tips
Back H.Tanihara to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Campillo to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Larrazabal to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back H.Porteous to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back N.Bertasio to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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