After what seems like an absolute age since the Scottish Open, the European Tour is finally back this week and with some huge events on the horizon we are heading into a big part of the campaign now. That all begins with the Czech Masters out in Prague.
This tournament is still establishing itself on the European Tour but that won’t be a concern for Andrea Pavan, who flushed his way to victory in this tournament last season, and who will be looking to make a successful title defence here.
Recent Winners
2018 – Andrea Pavan
2017 – Haydn Porteous
2016 – Paul Peterson
2015 – Thomas Pieters
2014 – Jamie Donaldson
The Course
Once again we are back at the Albatross Golf Resort this week. This is a track where the bigger hitters should have a massive advantage but actually two relatively short hitters have come out on top here in the last three years. The course is a par 72 which stretches way beyond 7,400 yards and with wide fairways and big greens everything plays into the hands of the powerful hitters, even if recent winners suggest otherwise.
Greens in regulation and putting were the key statistics last year. Only one of the top eight was outside the top 25 in greens hit and the majority of those in the top 10 ranked very high in the putting statistics, so this could very well be a second shot golf course and inwards. Therefore we are looking for good iron players who have ability with the flat stick.
The Field
Although there is a big event going on for 70 of the best players in the world in America this week, a good level of field has been assembled for this tournament. Twice winner this year Bernd Wiesberger, will be looking for a hat trick of titles on the year while the likes of Lee Westwood and Eddie Pepperell will be looking to add to their trophy cabinets as well.
Thomas Pieters made a name for himself when he won here a few years ago and he could do with a big spin here. Tom Lewis, Andrea Pavan, Julian Suri amd Haydn Porteous all hold claims at winning the title while veterans Padraig Harrington and Edoardo Molinari will also be looking to challenge strongly on a course which could suit.
Market Leaders
Depending on where you shop this week you can get a 14/1 price about four co-favourites. They are Erik van Rooyen, Eddie Pepperell, Lee Westwood and Bernd Wiesberger. The first of those names has not won at this level so I’m not really interested in backing him at this sort of price, while Westwood doesn’t win very often these days so he could be a bit on the short side himself. The other two are very interesting though it has to be said but this feels slightly more competitive than 14/1 the field.
Thomas Pieters comes next in the betting at 18/1. He knows what it takes to win around here which is very much a positive but the fact that he hasn’t won for more than three years is very much a negative for my money. I always think he can win at any point because he is good enough to but it never seems to materialise so he isn’t really for me at this sort of price even allowing for him having good memories here.
The defending champion Andrea Pavan and decent level European Tour player Tom Lewis come next at 25/1. I’m never really that keen to back a defending champion as there is often a lot more stress on their time. Lewis tends to have a good record in the tournaments slightly below the top tier having previously won the Portugal Masters so he could be interesting although he is no more than a fair price. It is 28/1 bar.
Main Bets
It is hard to find great bets with any confidence this week given that the European Tour has had the better part of a month off but there are two players I like here who fit the criteria that I’m looking for. The first of those is Julian Suri, a previous winner on the European Tour who has a couple of top five finishes this season. One thing I like about the American is that he won on the Challenge Tour in the Czech Republic so he has good memories of this part of the world. Suri gives it a bit of tap off the tee and ranks in the top 20 in putts per GIR. That is a key stat here so there is a lot to like about the American this week.
There is plenty to like about Gavin Green here too. He is another monster hitter off the tee and he was third here on debut last year so natural logic would suggest that he is going to improve now that he knows the place and if that is true he is going to have every chance of landing a decent blow here. Prior to the Scottish Open, where he missed the cut on a under par score, he had three top 10 finishes in four events so he is very much warming to the task on the European Tour. He will definitely win at this level in the not too distant future and given that nobody really has much competitive action in their legs, this could be his week. At 28/1 I’ll pay to find out.
Outsiders
I’ll play a couple of outsiders this week as well with the first of those being Jason Scrivener, who statistically at least has a lot going for him here. He sits second on the European Tour in strokes gained in approach which could be the most telling statistic of the lot here. The man above him in that standing isn’t here so it could be even more of a factor. He also sits inside the top 40 in birdies on the Tour which helps so if he can keep the big numbers off the card, on a relatively easy track in that regard, then the Australian should have a decent enough week.
Jamie Donaldson has previously won around here and showed some signs of coming back to form last time out in Scotland when he finished inside the top 10 playing some decent golf. He spoke that week of how his belief is beginning to come back and nothing will make him feel better than going to a track he has won on before. Despite his troubles in recent times, Donaldson sits in the top 20 on strokes gained on approach so if he has kept that form up with the short stick from Scotland he is entitled to go well at probably four times the price he would be at had he been coming here with an extended run of form.
Tips
Back J.Suri to win Czech Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back G.Green to win Czech Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Scrivener to win Czech Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back J.Donaldson to win Czech Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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