Ahead of the world famous Kentucky Derby, we have the big race of the girls, the Kentucky Oaks. The race is 3 year old fillies, racing over 9 furlongs on the dirt at Churchill Downs, a typical US track with sharp turns. This is no poor relation this year with a cracking field of 9 having assembled & there are a couple of stats worth bearing in mind. None of the last 5 winners have started favourite but all have gone off at under 15/1, & they’ve all recorded a RPR of at least 107 on one of their last 2 runs. The front 4 in the market all qualify on RPR grounds whilst the other 5 don’t, the highest RPR any of the 5 outsiders have recorded is 100.
Favourite
Gamine is the odds on favourite having been first past the post on all 3 starts, the last 2 by a combined 26 lengths. She likes to go from the front so is drawn slightly wider than ideal in stall 5 but she’s all speed & the only time she’s gone further than a mile, she only just held on. There has to be a stamina doubt, especially if she can’t dictate the pace, and is opposable.
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Contenders
Swiss Skydiver is in top form, winning 4 of her last 5 starts with her only defeat being to the high class Art Collector. The 3/1 on offer isn’t much value given she has the inside draw and she may be the one to push Gamine at the head of affairs. The pair may set it up for a closer. Speech has finished behind both of the market leaders but won the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes in fine style last time out. She’ll need to improve again though to beat the front 2 although the race may suit her more than the others.
Betting
At a ridiculous price, we’re siding with Donna Veloce. She’s clearly a fragile type, having only raced once this year, back in March, but it’s worth noting she gave Speech a near 5 length beating (which is more than the 2 market principles have beaten Speech by). She didn’t even get the best trip that day, stumbling out of the stalls, but she quickened clear in the style of a top class filly to win very comfortably. Her 2 year old career was none too shabby either, finishing a head 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. Her trainer Simon Callaghan is excellent with horses returning after long absences & the very capable Ricardo Santana Jr is another positive. With a nice draw in 3, she looks sure to be the one most suited by the fast pace & provided she’s 100% fit, she rates a super each way bet at the prices.
Tips
Back Donna Veloce (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 15.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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