What is quickly becoming a wonderful T20 series between New Zealand and Australia continues on Friday when the fourth game of the five is played out on an evening where there is plenty at stage inside the Sky Stadium in Wellington.
New Zealand have another chance to win the series with a match to spare but Australia kept the series alive on Wednesday and will be looking to win here and take it to a deciding match at the same venue on Sunday.
New Zealand
After two excellent displays to open up the series New Zealand let themselves down a bit with a drop in standards for the third game. Some judges will say it was because the series win was at their disposal but I think it was more the impact of the illness to Mitchell Santner. Jimmy Neesham was a bit part bowler earlier in the series but had to bowl a full allocation in the third game and to say it didn’t go well was a bit of an understatement.
The other thing New Zealand did in that previous game was allow scoreboard pressure to get the better of them with the bat. They didn’t play spin at all well in the game but to be fair they were chasing a lights out score and even with the extra batsman in their side they never looked like getting close to chasing it down. They need to tighten up in all areas but everyone is allowed a bad day. The Kiwis need to make sure it was their only one.
Australia
Australia have built their way into this series. They were pretty ordinary in the first game, much better in the second one and then they improved again for the third one where they weren’t completely perfect but they were more than good enough to get the job done. The big thing is that their batting has come to the party and the encouraging thing for them is that there is still a bit more to come in that department too.
Australia are going to need to offer more with the ball. Ashton Agar isn’t going to take six wickets very often but if there is scoreboard pressure to work with it will certainly help. Aaron Finch worked his bowlers well in the previous match and if they can find a complete bowling performance then with the way their batsmen have come good once again you’ve got to think we could be heading for a decider. No team has won chasing in this series but you sense Australia might be better served to chase.
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Team News
Mitchell Santner has recovered from his illness and is expected to move back into the side. Mark Chapman is likely to drop out once again although Tim Seifert might be feeling uneasy about his place in the side after a lean series to date.
Australia might like more runs from the likes of Matthew Wade at the top of the order, and with David Warner waiting in the wings after the series Wade himself might want more runs here too. D’Arcy Short is waiting if Australia want to change while Ben McDermott could be a like for like replacement.
Betting
As ever in these matches in New Zealand on these smaller grounds betting on the match winner is not the easiest thing in the world. I sense Australia have found their feet now and would side with them in an even match but the toss has been big in all three games so far so that immediately puts me off. Once again I’m going to head to the side markets and having had success with the sixes in the last two games I’m going back to the boundaries for this one.
The line is 42.5 which is probably a little on the high side you would suggest but there were 47 in the previous match here when New Zealand didn’t really bat very well at all. You would expect the Kiwis to contribute more to the pot in this match given that Kane Williamson, Glenn Phillips and Jimmy Neesham only hit one boundary between them. There is nothing to suggest this won’t be another high scoring match so I’m liking the over on the boundaries line.
Tips
Back Over 42.5 boundaries for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
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