The Thanksgiving Day triple header in the NFL concludes with the traditional Thursday Night Football which this week comes from the Superdome as the New Orleans Saints host the Buffalo Bills in what is a big clash for both teams.
The Saints go into the match 5-5 for the season and second in the NFC South while the Bills are slightly better off at 6-4 but they too are only second in their division. With top teams ahead of both of these sides losing here just isn’t an option.
New Orleans Saints
It had initially looked like the post-Drew Brees era was going to start very well when the New Orleans Saints won five of their first seven matches, but as with a lot of teams in the NFL, injuries have started to bite and they have now lost their last three games. The defeat to the Tennessee Titans can be excused but the losses to the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles will have thrown up concerns through the Saints’ coaching rooms.
The big surprise in that three game losing burst is that it was their defence which has let them down. Even without some key offensive weapons they have still put up 20 points in each of those losses but they have struggled on defence in that time. That is a surprise because they were the best rushing defence in the league prior to last week but then the Eagles completely gashed them. New Orleans need to get back to that physical defence to give them the best chance of getting the job done here.
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Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills looked like they were not only going to coast home in the AFC East but actually push for the number one seed in the Conference. This was when they were 4-1 for the season and had just taken care of the Kansas City Chiefs. Since then they have gone 2-3 and have dropped to second in the AFC East and are nowhere near the head of the pack in the Conference. Worse still, they no longer look like the team they did not just in the first five games of the season but for the majority of the previous campaign.
The three defeats have had a familiar tale about them. The Bills defence has been gassed by powerful rushers and they haven’t really had an answer. Jonathan Taylor has just scored five touchdowns against them and they are going to have to find a way of dealing with physical offenses as well as the vibrant ones. With the defence not standing up to the pressure, there is more on the shoulders of Josh Allen and his great games are beginning to come more infrequently.
Betting
I wouldn’t say I am completely comfortable siding with the Buffalo Bills in this match but I do think they are the only logical pick here, on available personnel alone as much as anything else. The key thing for me here is New Orleans Saints look like they are going to be without Alvin Kamara, who is definitely out, and Mark Ingram who it appears is less and less likely to suit up. With the troubles the Bills are having defensively being against the run those are two key absences.
It isn’t like the New Orleans passing game is in much better shape either. There will be no Jameis Winston for this match while receiver Michael Thomas and tight end Adam Trautman will also be missing so the passing game has hardly any weapons. That leaves the Saints having to get this done on defence but their secondary is not in the greatest shape either and one thing Josh Allen can do is take advantage of his matchups. I’m not completely sold on the Bills at the minute but they should only need a clean and clever game to get the job done here.
Tips
Back Buffalo Bills (-6.5) to beat New Orleans Saints for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
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