The Western and Southern Open final will take place on Monday evening as the ATP Cincinnati tournament draws to a close with the latest Masters 1000 event winner being crowned when Jannik Sinner takes on Frances Tiafoe.
Sinner would have been expected to have reached this final given the year that he has been having but it is a welcome return to form ahead of the US Open for Tiafoe who will look to follow Alexei Popyrin as a second unseeded Masters 1000 event winner in as many weeks.
Jannik Sinner
The world number one arrived in Cincinnati with one or two doubts around him. He didn’t look in fantastic physical shape at Wimbledon and then he pulled out of the Olympics with tonsillitis and a hip problem seemed to resurface in Montreal last week too. That has definitely been apparent in this tournament but the Italian has shown what a battler he is to come through a couple of tight matches to take his place in this final.
Sinner, who also won in Miami earlier in the year is looking for a third Masters 1000 title on a hard court in the space of around 12 months having also won in Canada last season. He is hitting the ball well and generally staying in rallies well. In Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev, he has seen off a couple of competent opponents so he is a worthy favourite heading into this final, even allowing for the hip being a bit of a concern.
Frances Tiafoe
I think it is fair to say that a week ago Frances Tiafoe arrived in Cincinnati under something of a form cloud. Some of that might just have been because the two years prior to it have been so good for the American but if there was a lack of confidence we haven’t really seen it this week. I always think if a player is not feeling good about his game he finds ways to lose tight matches and there have been a couple of occasions this week where Tiafoe could have done that but he has come through and that should set him up week both for this final and the US Open to follow it.
Twice this week Tiafoe has had to come through a deciding set tiebreak so he has been holding his nerve when it has mattered. In Lorenzo Musetti and Holger Rune, Tiafoe has seen off a couple of the brighter talents in the game at the minute and if he is going to win a first Masters 1000 title in the first final he has played at this level he will need to see off another. His new coach, who came on board last month, has clearly had an impact on him and the American is no forlorn hope in this contest.
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Head-to-head
These two men have met on four previous occasions with Jannik Sinner holding a 3-1 advantage overall having won their latest meeting which was in Vienna last year. That was their only meeting since 2021 though and both players have improved since then so how much we can read into their history remains to be seen. All four previous matches have been on an indoor hard court too so this is their first outdoor meeting, the first time they have faced off here in Cincinnati and the first time they have played each other in a final of any kind. History is on the side of the Italian but it might not be as relevant as it sometimes is.
Betting
I think the expectation for Jannik Sinner to win this match is right but his hip injury has to be a concern. He was limping quite a bit in the semi-final win over Alexander Zverev, a match that went three hours so if it is a problem it probably will remain one for this final. At one point when the rain came Sinner wanted to see the physio so it is impacting him and that might just allow Frances Tiafoe to remain close in defeat. This is the biggest match of his career so we know the American will leave it all out on the court at the very least.
At the end of what has been a fairly long week, there could be something in backing the fresher man. Sinner didn’t play the round of 16 because of a walkover but he has had two three set matches since then while Tiafoe only played a set of his quarter final and one of the three sets in his semi-final was 6-1 and over in 25 minutes so there is no doubt that Tiafoe should be fresher and he’ll probably be the better mover too. If he can get Sinner moving and that hip troubling him I see the American staying within 3.5 games even if he doesn’t go on and win the match.
Tips
Back F.Tiafoe (+3.5 games) to beat J.Sinner for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Betfair
