As ever at this time of the year, as one Masters 1000 tournament ends another one begins pretty much at the same time with the Western & Southern Open getting underway in the ATP Cincinnati event on Monday.
Novak Djokovic warmed up for the US Open by winning the title in a titanic tussle with Carlos Alcaraz a year ago but he has already withdrawn from the event so heading into a big week of tennis we know we will have a different winner.
Recent Winners
2023 – Novak Djokovic
2022 – Borna Coric
2021 – Alexander Zverev
2020 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Daniil Medvedev
2018 – Novak Djokovic
2017 – Grigor Dimitrov
2016 – Marin Cilic
2015 – Roger Federer
2014 – Roger Federer
The Format
The ATP Masters 1000 format is pretty well known these days. 56 men will make it into the main draw with the top eight seeds automatically progressing through to the second round. The other 48 men compete in the first round to join them. Every match in the tournament from start to finish is the best-of-three sets with a tiebreak in the third set to decide the contest. The champion will be determined in the final on the second Monday of the competition this year with everything delayed a touch because of the Olympics.
Top Quarter
The world number one Jannik Sinner is the top seed in the draw this week. He’ll be looking to improve on being knocked out in the quarter final in Montreal last week. There are four seeds in each quarter here with two going through to the second round automatically. Along with Sinner the other seed coming in during the second round is the man who beat the Italian in Montreal in Andrey Rublev. The other two seeds in this section are Ugo Humbert and the home hope Taylor Fritz.
We are still waiting for the qualifiers to be placed into the draw but we already know some of the unseeded players in each section and in the top one we have the likes of Tallon Griekspoor who won a tournament in America last year, the Newport champion Marcos Giron, Jordan Thompson who has had a decent couple of months while the French pair of Arthur Fils and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will look to do a bit of damage over the week too.
Second Quarter
The former Olympic champion Alexander Zverev heads up the seeds in the second section of the draw this week. He is on a collision course with Grigor Dimitrov who is the other player in the second quarter who skips the first round because of his seeding. The other two seeds in the quarter are an American pair hoping for fast conditions in Cincinnati in the form of the Queens semi-finalist Seb Korda and the big serving Ben Shelton.
The majority of the unseeded slots in this quarter have been filled and we have some household names in there with the former US Open semi-finalist Pablo Carreno Busta among them. Karen Khachanov is another who will be looking for a big week while Francisco Cerundolo and Tomas Machac will be looking to take their clay form onto the hard courts. Reilly Opelka is back on the tour and gets a wildcard into a home event while Matteo Arnaldi is rising through the rankings.
Third Quarter
The 2019 champion Daniil Medvedev is the highest seed in the third quarter and he’ll fancy his chances of a decent week at a place where he has good memories. Hubert Hurkacz is recovering from knee surgery but he is in the field at the time of writing and he is the other seed to automatically progress to the second round. The two seeds beginning in the first round are the home star Tommy Paul and the Olympic bronze medallist Lorenzo Musetti.
We’re still waiting for all of the qualifiers to be placed into this quarter but there will be plenty of support for Frances Tiafoe in this section while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could do with a decent month in America. Nicolas Jarry will hope to put his big serve to good use here while Jiri Lehecka, Alejandro Tabilo and Flavio Cobolli will be looking to continue what have been promising campaigns so far. Mariano Navone is another in that boat.
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Bottom Quarter
The beaten finalist of a year ago heads up the bottom quarter of the draw as Carlos Alcaraz is the highest seed in the last section of it and if everything goes to plan he will meet the Norway number one Casper Ruud in the quarter final. He is the other leading seed making it straight into the second round. There are two seeds entering in the first round and they are the Danish star Holger Rune and the almost forgotten player of the last year or so in Stefanos Tsitipas in what looks like a tasty quarter.
There are some very well-known names who aren’t seeded in the bottom quarter. Gael Monfils will be one of those while Alexei Popyrin will be looking to back up his deep run in Montreal last week. Matteo Berrettini has the tools to do some damage in this section as does Felix Auger-Aliassime who is two weeks out from a positive Olympics showing. British star Jack Draper is also in this quarter while Jan-Lennard Struff can rally behind a big serve in quick conditions too.
Betting
I’ll take three outright bets this week because I think this draw is going to open up so quickly given the closeness to the Montreal tournament in which anyone who went deep was playing a lot of matches in a short space of time because of the weather and that might play into the hands of Daniil Medvedev whose defeat at the time to Alexei Popyrin looked a surprise one but the Australian has gone on and made the final of that tournament so maybe it wasn’t as bad as it looked at the time. Medvedev has good memories of having won the title here in 2019 and he was the semi-finalist in 2022 as well. It isn’t ideal that he is in the same half of the draw as Carlos Alcaraz but the Spaniard has played a lot of tennis in a short space of time and something will have to give in that regard. Medvedev has beaten Alcaraz on a hard court anyway. The draw looks good for the Russian and with his imperious hard court record he looks the value this week.
Another player whose price might quickly look big is Taylor Fritz who has landed in the top quarter where Jannik Sinner just has to be a vulnerable favourite with the hip issues he was having in Montreal. You would imagine that any fitness issues this week and he’ll be long gone this close to the US Open whereas Fritz will be motivated to add to the four American hard court titles he has won since he landed the Indian Wells crown in 2022. Fritz was beaten early enough in Montreal that he didn’t get caught up in the backlog of matches, unlike potential round of 16 opponent Andrey Rublev. If the Italian and the Russian fail to live up to expectation then Fritz is more than good enough to take advantage and improve on his run to the quarter finals in the last two years.
I’ve just got a feeling that the second quarter is another which is going to open up as well. Grigor Dimitrov doesn’t look as confident since that injury at Wimbledon which put paid to the genuine chances he had there while Alexander Zverev had to back up and play two matches in a day in Montreal last week and that could catch up with him. In truth, there isn’t a huge amount in this quarter to beat as I’m way past trusting Seb Korda to deliver so I’ll chance my arm at Ben Shelton, the big serving American who could have conditions to suit this week. He’ll need to come through what you would imagine would be a match of tiebreaks against Reilly Opelka but if he comes through that he might find there isn’t a lot in his way for a while. At 66/1 he’s big enough for a small investment.
Tips
Back D.Medvedev to win Western & Southern Open (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 8.50 with Unibet (1/2 1-2)
Back T.Fritz to win Western & Southern Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
Back B.Shelton to win Western & Southern Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/2 1-2)
