Despite a shambolic build up, the Australian Open gets underway in Melbourne on Monday and as we now know it will do so without the defending champion and world number one Novak Djokovic who has been deported out of the country.
That means we are guaranteed a different champion this year and with it bring so early in the season there will be a number of players who will feel they can leave Australia with a Grand Slam title making this an exciting event.
Recent Winners
2021 – Novak Djokovic
2020 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Novak Djokovic
2018 – Roger Federer
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Novak Djokovic
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Stan Wawrinka
2013 – Novak Djokovic
2012 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
As ever in a Grand Slam the draw is pre-determined and the brackets have been drawn ahead of the tournament. Each match in the event is the best of five sets but unlike in previous years there will be a tiebreak in the deciding set. Should the score reach 6-6 in the final set a champion’s tiebreak will be played where the first to 10 points wins the match. The title will be decided on the second Sunday as always.
Top Quarter
The draw was made before Novak Djokovic was sent packing so the top quarter is now weaker than it normally would be as he has been replaced by a lucky loser. Matteo Berrettini is the man who will be looking to take advantage of the deportation of the defending champion as he is now the highest seed in this quarter. Six other seeds remain in this section with the man who shot through at the US Open in Carlos Alcaraz one of them. His Spanish compatriot Pablo Carreno Busta is another while the British number one Cameron Norrie has seen his draw open up. Cristian Garin, Gael Monfils and Lorenzo Sonego are the other seeds in this quarter.
There are plenty of household names who aren’t seeded in this quarter who could have big weeks now that the draw has opened up. Sam Querrey would be one of those at his best while Alexander Bublik was seeded in most of the Slams last year. Sebastian Korda is another who was seeded in big tournaments last season who is in this quarter while the former semi-finalist Lucas Pouille, Fabio Fognini, Marton Focsovics and Jiri Vesely are other unseeded players.
Second Quarter
The Olympic champion Alexander Zverev probably doesn’t mind the Novak Djokovic story taking place. Not only does it take the heat away from him and the investigation which is going on regarding him but Djokovic was also in the same half of the draw as the Serbian. He is seeded to run into a certain Rafael Nadal in the quarter final with the Spaniard being another who will not be disappointed to see the demise of Djokovic. The other six seeds in this quarter are Karen Khachanov, Aslan Karatsev, the winner in Sydney over the weekend, Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov, Reilly Opelka and Lloyd Harris. This is a good looking quarter.
There are some standout names in the unseeded part of the draw as well with the home man John Millman looking for a good fortnight. Feliciano Lopez is still doing the rounds and he’s in this quarter as are the former Wimbledon finalist Kevin Anderson and Adrian Mannarino. Thanasi Kokkinakis has had an encouraging build up to this event by winning in Adelaide and he’s also in this quarter along with Mackenzie McDonald among others.
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Third Quarter
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been nursing an elbow injury for a good while now so it will be interesting to see whether he is in the sort of shape he needs to be to justify being the favourite to make the semi-final from the third quarter. If he isn’t then the Nowegian ace Casper Ruud will be looking to do some damage. He isn’t exactly watertight in these conditions either so the other six seeds might be liking their position in the draw. They are Grigor Dimitrov, Taylor Fritz, Roberto Bautista Agut, Jannik Sinner, Nikoloz Basilashvili and Alex de Minaur.
Plenty of British eyes will be on one unseeded player in this quarter in the form of Andy Murray who has accepted a wildcard into the tournament and will be buoyed by making the final on Saturday. Andreas Seppi is a player who has achieved good results in this tournament in the past while Lorenzo Musetti is another. Steve Johnson, Jordan Thompson, Philipp Kohlschreiber and Marco Cecchinato are other players who have been around the block a bit but who could still do some damage.
Bottom Quarter
It is the US Open champion and the man beaten in the final here last year in Daniil Medvedev who heads up the bottom quarter. He is now the highest ranked player in the tournament after the departure of Djokovic and the favourite to win it as a result of that. His fellow Russian player Andrey Rublev is slated to be his quarter final opponent but it isn’t always that simple, especially in this tournament. Marin Cilic, Dan Evans, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Diego Schwartzman, John Isner and Ugo Humbert are the other seeds in this quarter.
There are plenty of unseeded players who are either stars in waiting or players who have fallen from grace a little. Nick Kyrgios always gets the home crowds going here and even though he only comes out of isolation on the day of the tournament he’ll fancy going well. Botip Van De Zandschulp made a name for himself at the US Open last year and will be looking to remind everyone of his talents. Richard Gaxquet, David Goffin, Filip Krajinovic, Adelaide finalist Arthur Rinderknech and Alexis Popyrin will all be looking for good weeks too.
Outright Betting
I’ll target a couple of big price runners in the top half of the draw for an outright punt. It might all be in vain because Daniil Medvedev might well stroll this tournament like he did a number of events towards the back end of last season but at least we’ll have some place money in the bank with a bit of luck. Hubert Hurkacz is becoming a big time player and his win in Miami last year emphasised that. He had such a good season last year that he made the ATP World Tour Finals so I’m a little surprised he is 80/1 from the second quarter of the draw. Of course he’ll need to overcome Nadal and Zverev but we don’t know exactly what shape Nadal is in for a hard court Slam and Zverev has an indifferent record here. Hurkacz got good match practice at the ATP Cup and feels a big price.
Pablo Carreno Busta should have benefitted from being in the Spain squad at the ATP Cup where he played in most of the ties so he has some good practice coming into this event, both in practice with fellow Spanish players and the matches he has played. He is in the top quarter which is now wide open all of a sudden, especially with Matteo Berrettini’s fitness becoming unreliable all of a sudden. Were he to lose early there is little for PCB to be scared of. We’ve seen him go well at elite events like the US Open and the Olympics and this is a similar event to those. There is no reason why he can’t give us a monster run at an incredible price.
Quarter Betting
I’ll also take Carreno Busta to win his quarter as well. As I said above with Djokovic exiting the quarter already, were anything to happen to Berrettini this section would open right up so it stands to reason to take him to win the first quarter. I’m going nowhere near opposing Daniil Medvedev so in terms of a bet in the bottom half I’ll take a shot at Andy Murray to win the third quarter, a section which is another that looks certain to open up.
Murray comes in here having made the final in Sydney where he took care of the likes of Nikoloz Basilashvili, his first round opponent here, and Reilly Opelka before going down to Aslan Karatsev while before that in Abu Dhabi he knocked out Rafael Nadal before running into Andrey Rublev. There isn’t really a standout seed in this section. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the main seed but he is clearly not 100% fit and Casper Ruud is yet to do anything in a Grand Slam. At 13/1 Murray might be a value play to go deep in an event that retired him three years ago!
Tips
Back H.Hurkacz to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Boylesports (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back P.Carreno Busta to win Australian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with BetVictor (1/2 1-2)
Back him here:
Back P.Carreno Busta to win 1st Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Betfred
Back A.Murray to win 3rd Quarter for a 1/10 stake at 14.00 with Betfair
Back him here:
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