The big race of Day 1 is for the 2 mile hurdling crown of the Champion Hurdle where 2 of the last 3 winners turn up & head the market. Buveur D’Air is odds on & looks very difficult to beat. A winner of 9 of his 10 hurdle starts, his only defeat was the only time I backed him; 2 years ago in the Supreme when being Altior & Min, hardly anything to be embarrassed about! All ground comes the same & the only real angle into this is to look at the market with the favourite.
Preview
Willie Mullins runs the next 4 in the market in 2015 winner Faugheen, the mount of Ruby Walsh, Yorkhill, Wicklow Brave and Melon. I just cannot be having Faugheen, he is nowhere near the horse he was & reaching for the first time cheekpieces doesn’t make me feel any more comfortable. 9/4 is a competitive 11 runner market, even without the mighty Buveur D’Air, looks mightily short for a horse who has lost on his last 2 visits to the track. Similarly, there are too many doubts over both Yorkhill & Wicklow Brave. At their best, either of them could give Buveur D’Air a race but it’s a big if as to whether they’ll show what they’re capable of. Yorkhill hasn’t raced over the smaller obstacles for 2 years and has been absolutely slammed on his 2 chase starts this term. Ability he has plenty but doubts he has plenty more. Wicklow Brave has some great form in the book over both codes but his tendency to be left at the start means your bet could be down before they get to the first hurdle. He’s also been off the track since November and could only manage 7th in this 12 months ago when slow to get going.
Betting
The Mullins horse I want on my side is the Paul Townend ridden Melon. Still a 6 year old, he’s had just 6 starts over hurdles & has bags of improvement left, I feel. After coasting home in his maiden last year, he was runner up in the Supreme 12 months ago but came almost 10 lengths clear of the 3rd horse that day. He came her again in December and was a close up 3rd of 7 behind My Tent Or Yours on similar ground to this. He pulled hard that day but was still going best approaching the last. Early exertions didn’t help so a faster pace here will suit; that & the fact he was giving 6lbs to the 3-time Champion Hurdle runner up that day. In the Irish Champion, he was disappointing after travelling sweetly but we can put that down to a blip & the first time headgear that has been left off here. A horse that travels so sweetly should appreciate a faster pace & I’m sweet on his chances here.
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My Tent Or Yours is again coming here after finishing 2nd 3 times but he’s not for me at 11 years old and my 2nd bet comes in the form of the only other horse with realistic prospects, the recently supplemented Elgin. Another 6 year old who finished 7th in last year’s Supreme, he’s done nothing but improve this term for Alan King. He’s won a couple of decent handicaps but it’s the style he quickened up in the Kingwell Hurdle, readily accounting for Ch’Tibello that stands out. He could have won by more than the 2 lengths had he not idled in front & he was giving the runner up 4lb too. The other thing I love about this horse is his record of 1-2-1-1 on soft ground. Without doubt, he has something to find but he’s improving & loves a good battle so I can see him running on late behind the likely Henderson winner in Buveur D’Air.
Tips
WON – Back Melon in the ‘w/o Buveur D’Air’ market (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.50 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3)
Back Elgin in the ‘w/o Buveur D’Air’ market (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3)
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