The second round of group matches in the Euro 2020 tournament begins on Wednesday and it does so with a huge clash in Group B as the debutants Finland take on one of the co-hosts Russia in a pivotal game in this section.
After winning their opening match, Finland know if they avoid defeat in this one they will be through to the last 16. Russia lost their first game and a defeat here could be catastrophic to their hopes of progressing in the competition.
Where to watch
This match will be shown in full on BBC1 with all the build-up starting out from 1.45pm and the match kicking off in St Petersburg at 2pm.
Finland
We can’t really take too much out of the opening game of the tournament for Finland for obvious reasons but what they did come out with was a win. They might already have enough to make it through to the next round of the competition as a best third placed side but another point from their last two matches will certainly be enough. It won’t be lost on them that they have Belgium in their next match though so they should target this one for the point they desire.
That might make their low block even deeper in this match and they ask Russia to break them down. In the parts of the match against Denmark that were normal prior to the horrific Christian Eriksen incident, Finland didn’t really show much in the way of intent and now that they have a position to protect it is hard to see that changing here. They need to carry some sort of attacking threat though because playing without the ball in the afternoon heat will be very tough.
Russia
It is fair to say the Russians were disappointing in their opening match but they were playing Belgium and I think if you asked them to be truthful about this group, if they are being honest they would say get through the first game and get to work in the next two. That is all well and good but that defeat to Belgium has put pressure on them to get something out of this match and really only a win gets them back into a position where they are guaranteed to control their own destiny in the final match.
The big issue for Russia is that they never looked like landing a blow against the Belgians in their opening match. Yes that was one of the best sides in the world they were facing with decent defenders but now they are going to be taking on a packed defence so they are going to need to come up with something different or rely on a bit of luck. The other thing Russia have to do is make sure they don’t concede as that could have huge implications on their chances.
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Team News
Finland are hoping that Joona Toivio will be fit for this match even though he has been nursing a sore toe. They are expecting to have Nikolai Alho available as well after he has overcome an ankle issue. Fredrik Jensen will be hoping to start.
Russia look set to be without veteran left-back Yuri Zhirkov in this match after he picked up an injury in the opening match against Belgium. Daler Kuzyaev was involved in that nasty clash of heads with Leicester defence Timothy Castagne but he is expected to be available here.
Betting
I’m expecting this match to be tight and nervy. Finland are on the cusp of something very special and Russia are going to have to throw the kitchen sink at them and try and find a way through a stacked defence. The nerves from the stands might impact the Russia players as well if the goal doesn’t come early. I don’t think it will come early in truth. Finland have no real reason to open up and have a go and they’re not going to tire until later in the game.
That makes me think that the 6/5 on the second half being the highest scoring one is a good bet here. It might be that this loses with a 0-0 but the 0-0 doesn’t really serve any purpose for Russia whatsoever, albeit it is better than losing. We have to remember this match is taking place in the heart of the afternoon so conditions are going to be energy zapping which will make defending for the whole 90 minutes and beyond pretty tough. The way this group is poised and where this match falls I think any goals that come might take a while in doing so therefore the second half being the highest scoring will do me.
Tips
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