The final match of the FIFA World Cup 2022 on Sunday has the potential to be the best of the tournament so far when a Spain side who laid a marker down in their opening game go up against a Germany team who did anything but that.
Germany were shocked by Japan in their first game and know they really need something from this one to keep their qualifying hopes in their own hands. Given their goal difference, a win for Spain will see them into the knockout stage.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC 1 channel in the UK with a slightly longer build-up beginning at 6.30pm and the contest beginning at 7pm.
Spain
It isn’t very often that a tournament gets off to a perfect start at this level, as often teams look to play their way into the competition and then peak for when it matters but Spain had none of that in their opening match when they absolutely destroyed Costa Rica. A lot of the talk heading into the tournament was the concerns that they didn’t have a potent striker but seven goals shared around the team soon quietened down that sort of talk.
I guess the problem for Spain is that they were given no test in that opening match so we are going to have to find out just what they have got when they are put under pressure. The chances are we will find that out here. The other thing we need to see is whether they are as clinical in attacking areas in tight matches. One thing we know for sure is they are great on the ball but it is a little far out for them to have peaked already.
Germany
Clearly the result in the opening match was not the one that Germany desired and I get that it is the result that only truly matters in the end, but if you strip that back and look at their performance against Japan I’m not convinced they will be too disappointed because they actually played very well in the main. They dominated the ball and created so many great chances but just got caught with a couple of sucker punches to undo all their hard work.
While the performance against Japan was nothing like as bad as the result, it did highlight that this German side lack a class act in the centre forward position. Had this team had a Miroslav Klose or a Lukas Podolski they would have put Japan to the sword so their task is to find a way to convert more of the chances that they create. Their defence is an issue which you can’t get away from but that could be a secondary factor if they can take their chances.
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Team News
Luis Enrique has hinted that he could make changes despite a 7-0 win last time out but he hasn’t confirmed who it will be. You would imagine a second out and out centre-back would come into the heart of the defence though.
Germany are keeping an eye on the fitness of Leroy Sane which would offer their attack a more threatening option should he be available. Niklas Sule is under pressure after a poor first outing. Thilo Kehrer could be utilised there.
Betting
Prior to the earlier result in this group I fully expected to see a wide open game with goals in it because Germany needed to make it that way to try and get the win they needed to stay alive. That isn’t the case now so I wonder if we’ll see a more cautious affair. If I was to put my head on the line I’d say we’ll still get a game with goals and good attacking football, largely because I wouldn’t want to trust either defence, but a draw now isn’t a bad result for either which is a concern.
I’ll head to the player markets for a bet on this one and the one I like is for there to be more than 1.5 shots from Ilkay Gundogan. I’ve always been a fan of the Manchester City man and quite regularly look to get him in bets in standalone matches. He plays a little deeper for comfort for City but is more advanced for his country. He had six shots in the opening game against Japan, three of which hit the target but we don’t really care where the shots end up with this bet. If Germany fall behind and need a goal he’ll get himself into the box but it might be that the Germans need to shoot from distance. However they come, a top class act in Gundogan, who could get the license to roam a little, can fire two shots at goal.
Tips
Back I.Gundogan – Over 1.5 shots for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Boylesports
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