It’s the turn of the ladies in their first Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas. Yesterday, the boys took centre stage with Aiden O’Brien landing the spoils with Saxon Warrior. He saddles 2 of the 3 market leaders today.
Preview
There’s no identikit winner of this race but it’s fair to say that experience (3 runs the minimum) & a prep race is usually ideal, which doesn’t have to be a winning one.
7 of the last 10 winners have come from either France (3 times) or Ireland (4) and with the French have no representation, it might pay to focus on the Irish raiders of which there is 5 in a 15 strong field over this straight mile.
Favourite
Happily is the market leader & she looks a top filly all through last term but mainly on easy ground. She then went to the Breeders Cup, was well fancied & finished plumb last. There’s every chance she’s a wonder filly but she does have something to prove so 2/1 is not a price for me.
Contenders
Charlie Appleby has a couple of fancied one, including the recently supplemented Soliloquy. She was a good winner of the Nell Gwyn here where she had the run of the race. Like Masar yesterday in the boys equivalent, the race is unlikely to pan out as favourably here. Varian’s Altyn Orda was back in 2nd that day & may get closer today.
Appleby’s other runner is Wild Illusion who has yet to race this season & may be better on soft ground whilst the winner of the Fillies Mile, Laurens, has a great chance on her 2 year form but I’m worried about the lack of a recent run. That same comment can be applied to Liquid Amber who I think could be special. I know the yard wanted to get a run into her but it just never happened.
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Betting
This leaves me with I Can Fly & I fancy her to do what Winter did 12 months ago, winning the race as the stable’s 2nd string. She has the required 3 runs on the board & has already raced this term, just over 3 weeks ago. She quickened up in fine style on her debut when winning by almost 5 lengths at Dundalk before coming here for the Oh So Sharp where 3rd was all she could manage after going off as favourite.
She was beaten by Altyn Orda but the selection was the one to take from the race. She had the widest draw, stayed wide all race, quickened into the dip & looked all over the winner before Altyn Orda came up the stands rail, which helped significantly. Similarly, she looked to run a good race when wide again on her reappearance where the heavy ground was against her. I expect she will develop into a top class filly this year & with the way this yard’s string improve from 2 to 3, and from their reappearance run, she’s sure to be in the mix.
Tips
Back I Can Fly (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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