The countdown to the Cheltenham Festival is well and truly underway but until they line up for the Supreme Novices in three Tuesdays time we will continue to seek out the value in the flat racing which takes place around the world.
With that in mind, our attention remains firmly in the UK on Saturday where we are eyeing up the sand at Lingfield Park, where there is one bet which stands our across a fairly low key card on the all-weather.
11.45 Lingfield
Preview
The opening race is where our only bet of the day comes from. An 11 runner handicap over a mile and a quarter sees Ryan Moore on the red hot favourite in Convertible who won over course & distance last time up. He won well but is up 4lbs, up in grade & failed on his only other try in this company. Odds of around 2/1 are too short.
Luna Magic is the nearest challenger according to the market & Hollie Doyle takes over from Brodie Hampson but a 74 day absence & a rise in grade doesn’t bode well, although an improved effort on his last start gives her a chance. Central City won his last start but his wide draw & shorter trip, coupled with a higher mark & higher grade, is not appealing whilst Enough Already is yet to get his nose in front & isn’t certain to appreciate this step up in distance.
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Betting
Poetic Force is feared but preference is for Toro Dorado who is proven in this grade & is lurking on a dangerous mark. He’s won 6 of his 25 all weather starts, his last win off just 2lb lower at Newcastle in October. Since then, he’s twice finished 2nd off this mark (Newcastle & Wolverhampton) before failing on his last 3 starts, off marks in the 80s (off 79 here). 2 starts ago at Lingfield, he travelled well but made his effort against the far rail which isn’t ideal & his effort petered out whilst last time out, he stayed on as well as anything into 5th (of 7) but the pace was incredibly slow & it was virtually impossible to make up ground given there was nothing off the bridle at the 2 furlong pole. This bigger field and likely stronger pace will play to his strengths, at a track he likes (2 wins & 1 place from 6 starts). With some bookies paying 4 places, he’s well worth an each way play.
Tips
PLACED – Back Toro Dorado (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 9.50 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-4)
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