A week of horse racing which ends with the first two classics of the flat season, begins with some indifferent stuff on Monday, but there are a couple of betting opportunities for us to explore, one on the Yorkshire turf and another on the all-weather down at Wolverhampton.
4.05 Thirsk
Preview
A big field of 17 for this straight track 6 furlong sprint. It’s a Class 4 race with a standout favourite in Dark Defender from the Keith Dalgleish yard. He’s been running well in better races than this but he may just prefer the ground a bit softer & he has yet to win off a mark this high.
Betting
I think Bossipop is under the radar a little bit & should give the favourite the most to think about. Recent form figures of 5-0-8-0-0 are nothing to write home about but, look a bit deeper & there’s enough to recommend him. He’s back down to his last winning mark & is a t a track he likes having finished 3rd & 2nd on his 2 runs here.
Since winning off this mark of 82 last summer, he’s twice finished 2nd off 88 but otherwise didn’t show much. This is a horse that seems to have a handicap mark ceiling; his form off a mark of 82 or lower reads 1-3-2-3-2-0-2-0-1-2-3-1 whilst his record off a mark of 83 or above, by contrast, is 6-5-0-0-5-8-2-0-2-5-0-8-0-0. Stable jockey was on board for his last win & is on top again today after the horse’s last 6 races have seen someone else take the ride; that’s a tip in itself.
His best form is on good / good to soft which is probably how the ground will be riding & he’s back in a grade he can definitely win in. The trip is perfect too so there are lots of positives. Interesting that his last 5 starts have all been about protecting his mark; twice raced over an insufficient trip over 5 furlongs & twice in a Class 2 where he’s yet to be placed. He needed his last run being his reappearance on unsuitable ground too. Dropped 2lbs for that run, he will strip fitter & with conditions to suit, should go very well.
Tips
Back Bossipop (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
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4.55 Wolverhampton
Preview
Our 2nd bet is on the Tapeta surface in this Class 4 handicap over a mile and a half. There’s only 9 runners & it looks quite a weak race. Sky Eagle is the favourite, is lightly raced & could be on a sharp upward curve but it’s his first try here & he’s up 4lb in mark & up 2 grades from Class 6. No surprise to see him win but he’s a tad short at 5/2 for me to be interested.
Betting
Star Ascending has won 7 times in the last 5 months but has seen his mark continue to go north & this is his 1st try in this grade in handicap company. I’m sure that either Denmead or Makfi will appreciate the shorter trip so I’m drawn to the chances of top weight Agent Gibbs. A winner of 6 of his 21 starts, he showed some promising on his last start when returning from a monster 569 day absence.
That day, he was 4th to a Godolphin horse that has since followed up off 7lbs higher. Our horse travelled well into the race & was one of the last off the bridle but didn’t really pick up in the straight but stayed on into 4th. That was to be expected & he’s likely to come on bundles for that run. Furthermore, he’s better over further so the extra 2 furlongs play right into his hands. His last start on the sand & his only start here was fully 2 years ago when he was 3rd in the Class 2 off a 7lb higher mark than today. Provided he retains his old ability (& it seems likely he does), he looks good value in this weak race for the grade.
Tips
PLACED AT 11/1 – Back Agent Gibbs (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill BOG (1/5 odds 1-3)
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