We’ve gone through the afternoon cards and previewed the Irish 2000 Guineas but now it is time to take a closer look at the remainder of the evening action, much of which is being televised on ITV4 for viewers in the UK.
We have evening action at Newbury in the UK and Curragh in Ireland so there is a lot to go at and we’ve picked out three very good value bets to go with the two that we’ve already pulled out for the action on Friday.
5.55 Newbury
Preview
11 rivals head to the start for this decent looking Class 2 handicap over a mile and a half. There’s a really interesting horse at the top of the market in Away He Goes who has a solid chance to really kick on this year. He was 2nd to the very classy Logician on debut and won a pair of novice events thereafter. He could easily be ahead of his opening mark with the one worry being that connections apply first time cheekpieces.
Leafy and Rajinsky are the next pair in the market but it’s hard to fancy either. The first named is not exactly in form whilst the latter is up in mark and has a steep rise in grade to contend with.
Betting
In a race lacking pace, the chances of Genetics could be upgraded significantly. He’s the one, on paper, that could make the running and then it’s a question of how long he can stay there for. This 6 year old won 3 races in the summer of 2018 but since then has paid for it after a 12 length victory saw his mark soar to the mid-90s.
In that time, it became evident he didn’t stay beyond this trip and failed on both occasions he’s tried to last home. He did, however, run a cracking race here when 3 lengths 5th off level weights to a horse, Communique, now rated 115 so the mark of 90 that the selection has today could prove lenient if he was to repeat that run.
Last term, his best run was off the lowest mark he faced of 92 when 2nd in the Shergar Cup at Ascot. He made all, looked all over the winner and was collared close home. He’s down to a lenient looking mark of 90 today and, if allowed his own way up front, should go well. Add to that he’s from the form yard of Andrew Balding who’s had 10 winners since racing returned less than 2 weeks ago and has David Probert on board for the first time in 18 years (he’s been on board for 2 of his 4 career wins).
Tips
Back Genetics (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 BetVictor BOG (1/5 odds 1-3)
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7.15 Curragh
Preview
The Irish Lincolnshire is always a good watch and this year should be no exception with 18 runners over this mile at the Curragh.
There are 3 well fancied, lightly raced, progressive types heading the market. Current Option, a horse not out of first 2 in his last 5 starts & 2nd in last year’s Irish Cambridgeshire, should go well but his mark continues to rise. Tauran Shaman is from the hot yard of the Harrington’s and won a handicap on only his second start off 6lbs lower but was outclassed in a Group 2 next time. He’s very lightly raced & could prove to be anything. Bashiyr is similarly lightly raced but faster ground would be an issue.
Betting
Instead, we’ve sided with one at a really big price in Insignia Of Rank. Now a 5 year old, he’s ridden by Gary Carrol, a jockey who’s won 2 of the last 3 runnings of this race. The horse itself was down the field in this last year but that was when it was run at Naas. The return to the Curragh is in our favour and the selection won a big field handicap here last year off a mark of 94 (races of 95 today) and a Listed race later on. A repeat of either of those runs would put him in with a great shout here.
He’s struggled in handicaps since so has been forced to race in Listed races given his mark has been lurking just over 100. Now back off 95, he looks primed to strike at a track he likes, a trip that’s ideal (he gets further which is a bonus in big fields) and with ground conditions in his favour. He doesn’t have the progressive profile of the 3 heading the market but, at the prices, he’s hard to ignore.
Tips
PLACED – Back Insignia Of Rank (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 Paddy Power BOG (1/5 odds 1-6)
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7.45 Curragh
Preview
The final race on the Curragh card is the Group 2 Mooresbridge Stakes over a mile and a quarter that’s attracted a small but select field of 9.
The market has it between Dermot Weld’s Search For A Song and Aiden O’Brien’s Fleeting. The former made her racecourse debut last year as a 3 year old & won 3 of her 5 starts, her last success being the Irish St Leger where, in receipt of almost a stone from her rivals, she beat some good horses including our selection today. The worry is the trip, now having half a mile less to cover.
Last year, Fleeting placed in the English Oaks, Irish Oaks, Ribblesdale Stakes & the Prix De L’Opera. That’s 4 Group 1’s so it’s fair to say she deserves some luck but she’s another that would benefit from further.
Betting
On the flip side, the selection is one who will benefit from coming back down in trip today and that’s one of the two Joseph O’Brien runners, Latrobe. He’s a really super horse who, as a 3 year old, won the Irish Derby and was 2nd in the Irish St Leger.
Last term, he didn’t have the greatest time of it but after failing to overturn the excellent Magical over this trip, he then ran a super race in the Wolverton at Ascot on unsuitably soft ground. The front 4 came clear of some excellent rivals and the selection was edged out into 4th by horses now rated 122, 115 (in receipt of 4lbs) and 120. It’s worth noting the 2 market leaders today are rated 114 and 116.
Admittedly, he was behind Search For A Song in that Irish St Leger but the trip did for him so it was a surprise to see him head down under to take in the Melbourne Cup over even further. Not only did that prove he needs a sharper trip, it’s fair to conclude he’s not the greatest of travellers. In fact, if you look at his form at trips up to a mile and a half on his preferred good or faster ground, you’ll see he’s had his conditions just 4 times in a 15 run career with all 3 of his wins under these conditions; a Group 3rd 2nd, a maiden win by over 6 lengths, that Group 1 Irish Derby success and, last year, a Group 3 win is the full summary. Provided he’s fully tuned up for his reappearance, he must go very very close today.
Tips
Back Latrobe (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.50 BetVictor BOG (1/5 odds 1-3)
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