The start of the 5 day spectacle that is Royal Ascot. For some, it’s about big hats and champagne but for me, it’s all about the top quality racing that is on show. 3 Group 1s on the opening day with the St James Palace the highlight. We preview all 6 races below.
2.30 Ascot: Queen Anne Stakes
The first race of the meeting and what a cracker we have in store; a Group 1 over the straight 1 mile course. This year’s race looks an open event but it generally pays to stick to the fancied runners here with 15/2 shot Declaration Of War, in 2013, the only horse to return greater than 5/1. Another key stat is that Goldikova is the only girl to have taken this in the last 40 years, yet 3 of the front 5 in the market are of the fairer sex.
Tepin is the US challenger, a mare who has won her last 6 races including 3 Group 1s, has excellent claims on the book and would have been more appealing if she had more soft ground form in the book and had a jockey with experience of the track on board. Ervedya and Esoterique head the French challenge and are the other 2 well fancied girls in the line up. The former won the French 1000 Guineas, the Coronation Stakes (at this track) and the Prix Du Moulin last year and has form on the ground. She is not easily passed over. Esoterique finished 2nd in this last year, a length behind Solow, but I think others come here with better claims and are more likely to be suited by the ground.
The Lockinge is generally a good pointer to this and this year’s winner Belardo comes here in a bid to follow up. He should go well but I’d be wary about taking a short price on a horse that was only 4th on his previous start, behind Toormore at Sandown. A better option is the 3rd horse home in the Lockinge, Endless Drama. He’s only run 5 times in his year and has bundles of improvement to come. 12 months ago, he was 2nd behind Gleneagles in the Irish 2000 Guineas but had his problems before an excellent run in the Newbury race a month ago. He travelled well that day, will like the going and seems to be the one with the most scope. He’s yet to win at the very highest level but that’s only a matter of time especially as he’ll been seen in a much better light with a recent run to his name. There are doubts about the other market leaders and I feel Ger Lyons horse is the value.
Back Endless Drama (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
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3.05 Ascot: Coventry Stakes
The first 2 year old race of the meeting, this is a 6 furlong charge down the straight track with 19 expected to line up. Again, market principles hold sway with just 1 winner since 2001 starting at double figure odds, Only Buratino last year has come here without an unbeaten record in the last 10 years and 5 of those had only seen the racecourse once.
Caravaggio is Aiden O’Brien’s only runner and he’s won 7 of the last 19 renewals but he looks too short at 2/1 especially with any number of these open to masses of improvement. I think Wesley Ward’s American challenger, Silvertoni, will make the running against the rail in stall 19 so I’m looking a high drawn runner to side with.
Mokarris looks to one to side with at 9/1 under Paul Hanagan. He won in a professional manner at Haydock on his one racecourse start and he looks capable of following up in this better company. Bred to stay much further, he will get every yard of this trip which, with a strong pace assured, is a big positive. He’s well berthed in stall 14 and should get a lovely tow into this before asserting close home.
Yalta is unbeaten and comes from last year’s winning yard of Mark Johnston but I’m worried by his draw in 4 whilst Psychedelic Funk could not have been more impressive in 2 wins at Navan and must make any shortlist.
Back Mokarris (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3)
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3.40 Ascot: Kings Stand Stakes
A race for speedsters, a Group 1 charge over 5 furlongs. There’s no easy angle into this but I like to take a horse drawn near the pace. With Acapulco now a non-runner, the pace will come from Take Cover who is drawn in 1. The draw is an issue to Waady and despite finishing 3rd twice to Profitable, I think he’ll struggle here whilst Muthmir isn’t ideally berthed and won’t like the ground.
Mongolian Saturday is a top class US sprinter but isn’t drawn great and I’d have concerns on this ground so he’s dismissed from calculations too. Last year’s winner Goldream is drawn well but needs faster ground whilst Pearl Secret has his ground and has been well backed but probably needs to find something to win this, especially from his middle draw. The race revolves around the front 2, Meccas Angel and Profitable, both of whom are drawn low and will love the ground. I’m not sure I can split them but I’m prepared to take a chance on Aeolus from the Ed Walker yard.
He’s twice finished behind Profitable this term but has run well in defeat both times. Firstly, at Newmarket, he finished 6th but was only 1.5 lengths back that day before finishing 3 lengths 5th last time out in the Temple Stakes. He was only a head behind both Waady and Pearl Secret but is drawn better today and, more interesting, will appreciate the stiffer track. Many believe Aeolus is better over 6 furlongs but I think this trip is fine on a track like this. Ascot will suit much better than Haydock and he should be staying on better than most. In the market without Meccas Angel, he’s worth a small each way investment.
Back Aeolus (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake in the ‘without Meccas Angel’ market at 23.00 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3)
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4.20 Ascot: St James Palace Stakes
This should be the race of the opening day, if not the whole meeting. We have the winners of the French, English and Irish 2000 Guineas lining up and the race should be about those 3. The Gurkha and Awtaad are the 2 most likely, with Galileo Gold having something to find after finishing runner up in the Irish Guineas after winning the English equivalent.
There’s no value to this market and I’d be sitting back and enjoying the battle, expecting Awtaad to land the spoils.
5.00 Ascot: Ascot Stakes Handicap
The only handicap on the card and it’s over a marathon distance of 2 miles 4 furlongs. The last 7 winners have all started at 12/1 or less, with 8 of the last 9 winners coming from stables more renowned for jumpers. Before Clondaw Warrior, the 5/1 favourite, won last year, there hadn’t been a winning jolly in the last 10 years whilst he was the first horse older than 7 year old to win since Full House in 2007.
Silver Concorde is a worthy favourite off the back of his Chester Cup run but he’s raised 2lb in the weights and is no certainty to follow up whilst Pique Sous is the mount of Ryan Moore but has something to find on the book. I actually prefer the chances of the other Mullins runner, Sempre Medici. The trainer is looking to win this for the 3rd time in 5 years. Whilst he’s drawn wide, I’m not put off as I think he can settle early and tuck in off the pace rather than going hard early doors.
His one and only flat run in the last 2 years was when 3rd in a 12 furlong handicap at the Curragh off a 2lb higher mark. That trip was way too short and I think that’s helped his handicap mark significantly. He will love the ground, likes a stiff track and will stay the trip. That said, he also has plenty of pace having been considered good enough to run in the Champion Hurdle. Any horse with the owner/trainer combo of Ricci/Mullins has to be feared and they’ll be looking to start Royal Ascot in the way they ended Cheltenham. I think Ryan Moore has chosen wrong and, at 8/1, he looks the best value.
Back Sempre Medici (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Coral (1/4 odds 1-4)
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5.35 Ascot: Windsor Castle Stakes
A minefield with 24 juveniles in a listed 5 furlong sprint. I’m going nowhere near this race and feel there’s no need to be involved as there’s still another 4 days to get stuck into. If you must play, I think there are worse bets than the Tom Dascombe trained Full Intention and Ismail Mohammed’s Bolt Phantom, At 40/1 and 28/1 respectively, you should get a run for your money.
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