A bit of a shock yesterday in the 2000 Guineas with Air Force Blue putting up no sort of showing, finishing out the back, with the first Classic of the season going to Galileo Gold and Frankie Dettori. The girls get their chance today in the 1000 Guineas and I’m taking 2 bets in the big race as well as another couple elsewhere.
3.40 Newmarket: 1000 Guineas
The favourite is yet another from the Aiden O’Brien yard and comes in the shape of Minding whose 2 year old form was incredibly impressive. Like the 2000 Guineas favourite yesterday, she should win if she’s as good as she was but there has to be doubts especially in light of yesterday’s goings on. I’m also a little wary of backing the girls first time up and that’s underlined by the fact that the last 4 winners of this had all raced at least once in the current season. Trading just above Evens, I’m prepared to leave her alone.
Lumiere, Ballydoyle and Nathra are the next 3 in the betting and again, I’m prepared to take them on. The first 2 are also reappearing today and there are stamina doubts over the first named from the Johnston yard. Connections reach for a first time tongue tie for Ballydoyle and that’s enough for me to pass her over. Nathra has raced and won this season, taking the Nell Gwyn almost 3 weeks ago. I wasn’t that impressed and I’m not sure this better ground will suit either.
The 2 that interest me have both had a prep run and the first comes in the shape of the O’Brien 3rd string, Alice Springs. She has finished behind many of these already last term but she’s still a decent filly and looks overpriced to me. 5th in the Group 2 Debutante behind 3 of today’s field but she ran too freely and then 3rd in the Moyglare when given an extremely tender ride. On better ground, she then ran a great race in the Cheveley Park when staying on and proving she needs further than sprint distances. The Tattersalls Millions, here at HQ, was next stop and she trotted up that day and, on that performance, looks to have a massive chance here. Her final run was in the Breeders Cup where the ground went against her but she still finished 2nd. Alice Springs arrives here fit and well after a spin in the 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown. She finished 3rd that day, 5 lengths back, but the heavy ground was unsuitable and yet again, she was handled with extreme tenderness. Better ground today over a mile should be right up her street and I see her shocking her 2 stablemates and coming home in front at rewarding odds.
Midweek is our 2nd selection, being the sole French runner. Her trainer doesn’t send them over to these shores for no reason and, whilst she has a lesser chance on the book than our other selection, she has any amount of improvement in her. She is out of Motivator and looks a stayer in the making and I’m not averse to backing something that will get further than a mile in this fillies classic. She is a strong travelling sort and will get the trip. Better ground should see her to better effect and her trainer has come out and said her reappearance run was purely to get some experience of a straight track. Still inexperienced, she has looked green every start but her shrewd trainer should have her spot on and I cannot ignore the 20/1 still available.
PLACED – Back Alice Springs (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 19.00 with Skybet (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
Back Midweek (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 19.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
1.50 Newmarket
The meeting kicks off with a 0-105 handicap over 1 mile 4 furlongs and the field is headed by the rapidly improving Charlie Appleby trained Oceanographer. He’s won 3 of his last 4 starts and the last 2 of those have seen his handicap mark go up by no less than 25lbs. That is some hike to overcome and the switch to turf might not be ideal so I’d rather look elsewhere for a bet.
Slunovrat has a big rise in class to overcome whilst Oasis Fantasy would have claims on his best form but looks out of sorts at present and has plenty to prove. First time blinkers have also been reached for. Snoano ran a good race last time out but might just have been suited by the soft ground and a 2lb rise in mark and faster ground may catch him out.
My preference is for Watersmeet. Likes to go from the front and this track definitely suits, he has some good form to his name. Raced 3 times this season already, on the all-weather, and has won once. I prepare to judge him based on his handicap form of last season on turf and that reads 4/13 off 95, 1/9 off 95, 5/17 off 101, 2/14 off 101, 18/19 off 106 and 4/4 off 105. I’m ignoring the last 2 runs as trip and ground were to blame as well as career high marks. However, based on his other runs all over this trip and better ground, he has sound claims. He holds an entry in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot so is clearly well thought of and if he can build on his excellent form last season, including a win here, he must go close. Interestingly, he has also been dropped 2lb in the handicap to 101 and, based on his 2nd to Notarised in the Old Newton Cup on softer ground than ideal off this mark, it’s well within his limits.
Back Watersmeet (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.50 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
3.00 Newmarket
A 6 furlong charge up the Rowley Mile and any number in with chances. Teruntum Star, Dougan and New Bidder all bring rock solid form into this but all have question marks in respect of ground, surface and mark to overcome. At the current odds, I’d prefer to be looking for something at a bigger price.
That comes in the shape of 20/1 shot Captain Bob from the foot of the weights. Rated 81, he’s won 2 of his 20 career starts but has finished 2nd on no less than 5 occasions. The key to this horse is good ground and he will get that today. He has won a handicap over a furlong further off 2lb higher than this, although that was 2 years ago. Since then, his form has been in and out but quite often with excuses for the defeats. He has a pair of 2nd’s in handicaps (Class 4 and Class 2) last summer on firmish ground over 7 furlongs, both off marks much higher than todays. Since then, he’s raced 4 times on soft ground and just the once on good ground, here at Newmarket, off 5lb higher than today. He pressed the leader that day and that probably didn’t suit and whilst he battled on, I felt 7 furlong on a stiffish track like this stretched his stamina.
Our horse has moved stables this season to a yard in fine nick. He’s raced twice, both on bad ground, and whilst his form is nothing to write home about, he was last off the bridle in both those races. That suggests to me that he is well within himself but just needs the right ground to show his best. There should be plenty of pace to chase and I think that this featherweight of just 8 stone should give our horse a great chance of upsetting the market leaders, especially as his best form has come in better races off low weights (3 of his 4 best RPRs have come when carrying under 9 stone and he’s only carried under 9 stone 6 times from 20 races).
Back Captain Bob (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Skybet (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
