We have had a couple of days of racing on the all-weather to bring the sport back in England this week, and we move to the turf for the first time on Wednesday when Yarmouth stages a card. That is not the only offering over the course of the day though as Kempton also race on the sand.
That means there are 19 races taking place across the country over the course of the afternoon on Wednesday, and having run our eye over both cards, we have come up with four bets on what looks a decent day of action.
12.45 Yarmouth
Preview
The first race on turf since the return of racing is a really strong looking Class 4 handicap for 3 year olds over 10 furlongs. As is the norm for the track, the ground will be firm. There are lots of unexposed types with 4 coming into the race with the minimum 2 runs to get a mark & 6 more having had just 1 run more.
Group One Power has been installed as favourite & he comes into this unbeaten in 2 starts. Both those wins have been in a low grade on the sand so, despite the undoubted potential, he has something to prove on the bare form. HMS President ran 2 average openers before winning comfortably over a mile at Newcastle on the sand. He couldn’t have been more impressive that day, winning by 3 lengths.
Celestran is the closest in the market to the favourite. He comes from the top stable of John Gosden & has been seen twice, finishing 3rd on debut over 7 furlongs at Newmarket before winning well when upped in trip at Wolverhampton on the all weather. That last race has only seen two horses run since & both have won so the form looks rock solid.
Betting
Interestingly, that Newmarket debut also saw our selection make his 2nd racecourse start. That horse is Naizagai from the Roger Varian stable who runs 2 in the race & is already off the mark since racing resumed. Our horse finished about a length in front of Celestran that day & he’s 2lbs better off with his rival today too so quite why he’s double the price is a bit of a mystery. In 1 other run at 7 furlongs, he was 3rd here, that was on debut when encountering heavy ground.
In both races, he was a little tapped for toe but stayed on as well as anything looking like he was crying out for a longer trip. On his last start as a 3 year old, he raced over a mile at Lingfield, finishing 2nd to an all the way winner that has won since in this grade. That race was run in a fast time &, on the clock, it’s the best form on offer. Our selection was closing at a line in the manner of a middle distance horse so the fact he’s stepped up 2 furlongs is a huge positive. Being out of Galileo supports this longer trip whilst breeding on the sire side suggests he’ll improve for faster ground. He’s been gelded over the winter which may also bring out further improvement.
Tips
Back Naizagai (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.00 Coral BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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2.45 Kempton
Preview
Raced over 10 furlongs, this is a classy looking Group 3 for 3 year olds over a trip of 1 mile 2 furlongs. It features a set of lightly raced, well fancied types from top yards.
Born With Pride is the favourite after winning her only start as a 2 year old which was a Listed race over a mile on heavy ground. I’m always a little dubious of form when the underfoot conditions are heavy so there’s risk in taking 2/1 in a race where others hold solid claims too.
Max Vega has had 3 runs, the most experienced of the leading fancies, and he’s won his last 2 including a Group 3 but, like the favourite, those 2 wins have come with cut in the ground so the same question marks exist. Hypothetical is a massive danger. He won his only start for Gosden on the all weather over a mile at Chelmsford when quickening clear off a slow pace to score by 5 lengths. The worry is how he’ll handle the trip with a faster pace likely.
Betting
Instead, I’ll take a chance on Bright Melody who is the first runner since the restart for both trainer Charlie Appleby & jockey William Buick. In fact, it’s their only runner on the card. Like Hypothetical, he’s won his only race on the sand at Chelmsford, the difference being that our horse won over today’s trip of 10 furlongs. He showed loads of inexperience, overcoming a very tardy start where he had to use lots of energy to get back on an even keel, but stayed on well to prevail by a length & a half. What’s interesting is that his top yard pitch him straight into Group company so that must be a bit of a pointer but it is supported by the fact his debut was run at a sound clip. Maybe he wasn’t as visually impressive as others but the clock backs up his claims &, on that basis, the price looks generous.
Tips
PLACED – Back Bright Melody (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.50 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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3.55 Kempton
Preview
A big field for this 1 mile Listed event for fillies & mares. 14 go to post so the draw could be all important.
John Gosden has the 1-2 in the market with Nazreef currently shading favouritism having won her last 3 impressively. There were all at short prices & this is a big step up in class so she has it all to do with her wide draw in 13. Scentasia is the 2nd of Gosden’s runners and is the mount of Frankie Dettori so she’s sure to be popular in the betting. She’s won her last 2 including a Listed race for which she gets a 3lb penalty.
Also in this field in 2018 1000 Guineas heroine, Billesdon Brook, who proved that was no fluke by winning another Group 1, the Sun Chariot last autumn. Maybe her 7lb penalty for those Group successes could stop her landing this. Romola hails from top connections but this is a massive step up in class & she doesn’t have the form in the book whilst Natalies Joy would have claims in a small field & with a better draw, as she’ll need to go from the front.
Betting
At a big each way price, the pick is Audarya from a yard renowned for improving fillies. This one comes here with a career record of 2 wins & 4 second’s from 7 starts & has continued to improve race on race. Last time out, she was 2nd in a good Listed race over in France. In her races, she settles & travels well & often displays a decent turn of foot. Her trainer, James Fanshawe, had a winner on Tuesday so is off the mark since the restart & this one will bid to add to his tally. Her first win was then comfortably disposing of Medal Winner who has won both starts since so that’s solid form but the race that took my eye the most was her debut as a 2 year old, over course & distance, when finishing a head 2nd. That day, she had Scentasia 4 lengths back & our horse is 3lbs better off today. Using that as a guide, you’ve got to question why this improving filly is 4 times the price, especially as it also proved her liking for this surface.
Tips
Back Audarya (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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4.30 Kempton
Preview
A Class 4 handicap over a mile brings about our final bet of the day. There are quite a few last time out winners in this who look to be improving and this is evident in the current market.
Highfaluting is the favourite as he hasn’t been out of the first 2 in his last 4 starts but, as a result, he’s up in grade & up in mark. This trip is just about his limit too & he’d rate more dangerous at 7 furlongs. Purgatory has won 3 of his last 4 but has gone up 16lbs in that time as well as rising in grade. The worry, however, is that the application of blinkers had seemed to bring out the upturn in form & they are now left off.
Earth And Sky rates a big danger but I’m put off by the wide draw whilst Lethal Missile ran some good races last term but disappointed on his final 2 starts & the cheekpieces now go on.
Betting
Our final bet comes in the shape of Marshal Dan but has been running well in this & higher grades. On his reappearance last year, he ran a cracker in a handicap finishing 2nd so the winter absence shouldn’t prove to be an issue. He has form at about 7 furlongs & 1 mile, as well as a decent draw, and this mark looks workable. He won twice last year, latterly off 75, and races off just 78 today. Interestingly, his last starts have been off 2 or 3lbs higher & in better races than this, yet he’s run well on all 3 occasions finishing 4th, 3rd & 4th. The race that most took my eye was the middle of those runs when finishing 3rd at Windsor off a mark of 80. In a 0-85 contest (this is a 0-78), he never got a run & had he not been blocked off twice, he’d have definitely troubled the winner. Of the front 2, the second horse has been out since & won so the form has a solid feel to it. Eased in class & down in mark, he looks a good value each way bet.
Tips
PLACED – Back Marshal Dan (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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