Major League Soccer is back this weekend and it returns with two new franchises joining the 24 that were in existence, all with one aim – to win MLS Cup this season. This is a campaign that sees David Beckham return to the league as an owner, years after he was a player in it.
The Seattle Sounders outlasted the field to win MLS Cup last season and they will be looking to retain the title but there are a number of teams who have made some appealing signings and will be chasing the crown themselves.
Recent Winners
2019 – Seattle Sounders
2018 – Atlanta United
2017 – Toronto FC
2016 – Seattle Sounders
2015 – Portland Timbers
2014 – LA Galaxy
2013 – Sporting Kansas City
2012 – LA Galaxy
2011 – LA Galaxy
2010 – Colorado Rapids
The Champions
Seattle Sounders are always a team who come to the party around the time of the postseason, and that is very much the aim of this thing. You only need to be the seventh best side in your Conference in the regular season but then if you catch fire in October and November you can easily be champions. One concern for the Sounders this season is a loss of some key defenders. That has already cost them in the Champions League and could do so again in MLS. In Nicolas Lodeiro though they have one of the best players in the league, which gives them every chance.
The Finalists
Toronto FC were the team Seattle Sounders beat to win the MLS Cup last season. It was anything but the best campaign in the regular season for the Canadian outfit, but as I eluded to above they finished the campaign well and then produced a couple of road trip masterclasses to make the final. The last hurdle proved too much for them in the end, but that was a good season for them, one which saw them miss some key players for large periods. If injuries are kinder this term they could have an even better campaign.
Best of the Rest
Los Angeles FC were the best team in the regular season by an absolute distance, shattering plenty of records on their way to the Supporters’ Shield, but as we so often see in competitions like this one, when push came to shove they were found wanting. This is their third season so they will be eager to go all the way this time around. They are the favourites to win the MLS Cup but their lack of squad depth could be an issue.
New York City FC were the winners of the Eastern Conference last season but they were seen off by the eventual champions Toronto FC in their first match in the play-offs. That has led to a change of coach with former Celtic boss Ronny Deila heading up proceedings but the majority of the squad has remained intact, so they should be strong runners again in what looks like a much weaker Eastern Conference this term. NYCFC are 10/1 to take the crown this year.
Atlanta United won MLS Cup two seasons ago and for much of last season were in an around the top two in the Eastern Conference, despite a very slow start to life under Frank de Boer. When you have the goals of Josef Martinez in your ranks you always have a chance but some key players have left Georgia over the last couple of years and that is very much a concern. Atlanta’s front three match most in the league but the rest of the side looks a little more vulnerable.
LA Galaxy begin the season as 16/1 chances to get back into the MLS Cup final and win it but it will be interesting to see how they go now that Zlatan Ibrahimovic has departed. There were thoughts that his lack of mobility was holding them back but time and time again his goals rescued them. They have brought Javier Hernandez in which is a marquee signing to say the least. If he goes well Galaxy should but this Western Conference looks a lot tougher this year.
Challengers
New York Red Bulls are 22/1 shots to win the MLS Cup. They have historically had no issues in the regular season but have never been able to deliver their best form when it comes to the play-offs and you simply can’t win this thing if you don’t turn up in November. Bradley Wright-Phillips has left now which leaves a young attacking core. The East looks weak this season but even with that I don’t see a Red Bulls success.
Minnesota United had a great campaign last term but they too couldn’t deliver the goods when the crunch time came and since then they have lost talisman Darwin Quintero to Western Conference rivals Houston Dynamo. It would be a surprise if the Loons don’t have another big season but in a stronger Conference being champions looks unlikely. Montreal Impact never even made the play-offs last season but even allowing for the Eastern Conference being weaker this season and Thierry Henry now the coach, there is no guarantee that changes after the departure of Ignacio Piatti.
Real Salt Lake were third in the Western Conference last term but lost 13 of their 34 matches. They recently acquired Giuseppe Rossi, which is still a pretty high profile signing for this competition, and that could help sort out an attack that scored just 45 goals in 34 matches last term – the joint second lowest in the West last term. RSL are always a solid side at home but they will need to improve their away form in order to be champions.
The New Boys
A huge storyline in this 25th season of Major League Soccer is the return of David Beckham as part of the ownership of the Inter Miami franchise. They will be in the Eastern Conference under Diego Alonso and they might just have picked a good year to come into MLS because the East does look discernibly weaker this term. Miami have drafted well, which is a necessity in a successful new franchise and the signing of Mexico international Rodolfo Pizarro could be significant too. It is always tough for new teams to make the postseason without being something special like Atlanta United were but this lot have a chance.
Nashville Soccer Club are the other new team in the league this season. Unlike their fellow newbies, they might have picked the wrong year to come in because the Western Conference looks much stronger this year. Nashville have recruited a lot of MLS experience to their ranks, particularly in defensive areas, but the lack of a top quality attacker could be their undoing. Historically teams need a few seasons to get up to speed in the West and that is what I expect from the Tennessee based outfit.
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Outright Betting
The good thing about betting on the MLS Cup is you don’t need the team you bet on to be in and around the top of their Conference all season. More than half the league go into the postseason and Toronto last season showed you can be out of the top three and still progress now that the playoffs are one leg. I’m far from convinced that the Columbus Crew will be out of the top three in the Eastern Conference though. Last season was a write off for them but in four of the five seasons before that they have made the top five in the Eastern Conference and made the MLS Cup final in 2015 when Portland saw them off. In recent seasons the Crew have been defensively minded but I think we’ll see a more expansive very of them this season. They have laid out huge money for Darlington Nagbe and Lucas Zelarayan while Fanendo Adi is a solid enough capture too. With key defenders back from injury this term I’m expecting a monster showing from the Crew at 50/1.
At a much bigger price I’m willing to have a smaller poke on the Houston Dynamo delivering the goods. It has been one of the bigger mysteries to me in recent seasons of how a team who create the insane number of chances they do are unable to take enough of them to be in the play-offs year in year out. I expect those opportunities to continue to come along here, and potentially even more so with the addition of Darwin Quintero, who not only boosted the creativity and goal threat of the Dynamo, but significantly weakens a rival in Minnesota United. Houston have been defensively capable for a while and with the likes of Alberth Elis, Mauro Manotas and Christian Ramirez in attacking areas the Dynamo have all bases covered. If they can find some consistency and a clinical edge we could get a massive run for our money at 125/1.
Conference Betting
At 25/1 I can’t resist a punt on Columbus Crew to win the Eastern Conference. Not only does it give us cover if they are forced to go away in the Conference final and come up short but it would secure even more profit should they make the MLS Cup final as I believe they can do. I’ll also have a smaller bet on the Houston Dynamo to do likewise in the Western Conference as well because the 60/1 price on them is just all wrong. You could argue there is no need to do that because the Western Conference will be a lot stronger this year but that might actually mean the East host the final which wouldn’t be ideal for Houston.
I’ll also have a bet on the Portland Timbers to win the Western Conference at 14/1. Last season told us that you have to be able to score goals in the play-offs these days and there aren’t going to be many better at that discipline in the whole of the MLS than the Providence Park outfit. They look absolutely loaded with attacking talent and it is impossible to see them being out of the top seven. They know how to get it done in November too. They won this competition in 2015 and lost in the final in Atlanta in 2018 and were Conference semi-finalists in 2017. Yes LAFC look in a league of their own but they did last season and never made MLS Cup final. Seattle, Minnesota and the Galaxy all look weaker or have questions hanging over them. Portland don’t. They look big in this division.
Top Goalscorer
There are two I like in the top goalscorer market. The little and large partnership of Fanendo Adi and Gyasi Zardes should see the America international with a lot of chances this term and with the classy Lucas Zelarayan setting them up opportunities really should come readily for the former LA Galaxy man. In the past he has been guilty of not converting opportunities but having lost his place in the USA national side he will be eager to deliver the goods here. He’ll also need to keep in front on the goalscoring to keep his place in this side. At 40/1 he looks overpriced for a man who bagged 13 in a terrible side last term and 19 the one before that.
Alan Pulido is the iconic signing for the Sporting Kansas City side this season and his record in the Mexican league suggests he should have every chance of going well for the Western Conference side. SKC were lacking an out and out goalscorer last season, so he has to be a good addition both to them and the league itself. If you can reach the top of the scoring charts in Mexico you should be able to make a significant impact in MLS where sides are nowhere near as organised or technically proficient defensively. I understand why the likes of Carlos Vela and Josef Martinez are at the front of the market but Pulido could be a real sleeper.
Tips
WON – Back Columbus Crew to win MLS Cup (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfred (1/2 1-2)
Back Houston Dynamo to win MLS Cup (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with 888sport (1/2 1-2)
WON – Back Columbus Crew to win Eastern Conference (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with 888sport (1/2 1-2)
Back Portland Timbers to win Western Conference (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with 888sport (1/2 1-2)
Back Houston Dynamo to win Western Conference (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with 888sport (1/2 1-2)
Back them here:
Back G.Zardes Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill (1/4 1-3)
Back him here:
Back A.Pulido Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-3)
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