Awards and Team Markets
Continuing with our NFL Regular Season betting previews I will look at some of the award and team markets that interest me in 2016.
Awards
I only like the value in the rookie awards this season so will not be covering the MVP, Offensive Player of the Year nor the Defensive Player of the Year markets.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
The red-hot favourite for this market is Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys). He was the highest drafted running-back in the 2016 draft. Elliott also gets to run behind the best offensive line in the NFC. Last year ‘journeyman’ Darren McFadden topped 1,000 yards in the Dallas offence. Elliott should go for closer to 1,500 yards assuming injuries don’t occur. The bookmakers have Elliott in the 1.90-2.50 odds range and this is a win only market.
Elliott will likely have a rookie quarterback, Dak Prescott, next to him in the Dallas backfield. Prescott has looked decent in the 2016 preseason games but the regular season games are a huge step up. I cans ee Prescott struggling and possibly being replaced by newly signed Mark Sanchez at some point in the season. This will play even more in Elliott’s favour.
I see the main challenge to Elliott coming from two other running-backs. Derrick Henry the Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama will share the workload in Tennessee with DeMarco Murray. The Titans gameplan is to run the ball a lot and I can see Henry getting up around the 1,000 yard mark with 10 touchdowns. I think he will get more goal-line carries than Murray due to his size. At odds as high as 26.0 there is great value with Henry.
As I’ve already tipped both Elliott and Henry in the NFL Rushing market I will look for value elsewhere.
Devontae Booker (Denver Broncos) is another big threat in this market. Denver have a QB, Trevor Siemen, who will be starting his first NFL game on 11th September. The Broncos play in the highly competitive AFC West division and I can see Siemen struggling. This will force the Broncos to rely more heavily on their running game meaning more carries for Booker. He may not start in week one but I think by midseason he will be the number one RB in Denver. Booker can be backed at odds of 51.0. Super value!
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Tips
Back Devontae Booker to win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a 0.5/10 stake at 51.0 with Ladbrokes.
Bet here:
Defensive Rookie of the Year
We need to look at players who will make splash plays ‘sacks and interceptions’ as potential winners of this category. I’m not convinced there is a rookie who can get more than 7 or 8 sacks so the DBs look like better choices to me.
Joey Bosa DE (San Diego Chargers) chances will be hurt by holding out for the pre-season. I think he can have a strong second half of the 2016 season opposite Melvin Ingram but he might be playing catch-up.
CB/S Jalen Ramsey (Jacksonville Jaguars) is favourite to win at 4.33 in a win only market. He is a phenomenal athlete but he didn’t make many interceptions in his college career. The questions about his hands mean I cannot see enough big plays. This means he might struggle to win this award.
I think the player with the best chance of winning is CB Vernon Hargreaves (Tampa Bay). He has shutdown CB skills and good hands. He had 2 interceptions in 4 pre-season games. The Bucs are also a team on the rise so they will garner increasing media attenton as the season progresses. A small bet at 9.0 looks like a decent choice.
MacKensie Alexander CB (Minnesota Vikings) is another player with top end measurables but a lack of interceptions in his college career. This preseason he matched Hargreaves for a share of the NFL lead with 2 picks. He is likely to see a lot of passes thrown his way as teams avoid Xavier Rhodes. This could lead to a Marcus Peters like rookie year with high interceptions partially offsetting a huge number of complete passes conceded. As it stands there are no odds available for Alexander but I will keep checking.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Tips
Back Vernon Hargreaves to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year with a 1.0/10 stake at 9.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Team Markets
I only like the value in the two ‘worst’ markets so will leave out previews for Best Record and Highest Scoring Team.
Worst Record or Fewest Wins
A few teams are likely to be in contention for the fewest wins in 2016.
The Cleveland Browns are favourite in this category and also to be the lowest scorers in the 2016 season. The Browns probably have the worst roster in the NFL due to poor drafting in the last 3 seasons. They have a retread QB in Robert Griffin III who might spark them but is unlikely to cover the teams deficiencies. The Browns also get to play in a tough division where they could go 0-6. The schedule also includes New England, the Jets, Buffalo and the 4 NFC East teams. It is not difficult to envisage a 2 or 3 win season. You can back the Browns at 5.00 to have the worst record in 2016.
I think the Miami Dolphins are another team that could struggle mightily in 2016. They are the worst team in the AFC East and play the four NFC West teams – three of whom have formidable defences. The final five games of the season are brutal – Baltimore, Arizona, Buffalo, Jets and New England. Miami have some weapons – mainly on the defensive line and in WR Jarivs Landry. They have huge questions at RB, LB and in the secondary. I’m massively surprised that the bookmakers have 10 teams with shorter odds than Miami in this market. Back them at 21.0 EW (top three – or should that be bottom 3).
Another team I’m low on are the Atlanta Falcons. I see them struggling in the NFC South with 2 games apiece against Carolina, New Orleans and an improving Tampa Bay. Then they have 4 games against the AFC West and their ferocious pass-rushes. If they get two+ wins from those 10 games they will be doing well. I think the QB Matt Ryan is over-rated and streaky. He suffers massively against a strong pass rush. The Falcons also don’t have a consistent pass rush of note and the entire defence has issues. They do have WR Julio Jones who would start on any team in the NFL and a RB in Devonta Freeman who knows how to get into the end zone. At 17.0 in the EW market you could do a lot worse!
Worst Record – Tips
WON – Bet on the Cleveland Browns to have the worst record in 2016 with a 1.0/10 stake at 5.50 with William Hill.
Back them here:
Bet on the Atlanta Falcons to have the worst record in 2016 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 17.0 with Ladbrokes.
Back them both here:
Lowest Scoring Team
Two of the three teamsthat will challenge for worst record won’t be in the running for this market. I think Cleveland will score points via a number of deep-threat WR’s led by Josh Gordon (presuming he doesn’t get suspended again). Similarly, the Falcons will score points with Jones and Freeman. Their issue will be wins as they will conceed a lot more points than they score.
For me a couple of teams are in the running to be the lowest scoring team.
The San Francisco 49ers probably have the worst set of skill player on offence in the NFL. Their QB Blaine Gabbert is a cast off player who is marginal. He has little in the way of elite weapons to throw too. The 49ers also have to play 6 games in their division against top 10 defences. They also face the 4 AFC East teams on their schedule. At odds of 8.0 EW or 11 win only I like them a lot to win this market.
The Miami Dolphins are the one team mentioned in the previous category that I like here too. The schedule is really difficult, the best WR is a not a deep threat, there are issues at RB and the TE’s aren’t big threats. They could get a boost with a return to health of WR DeVante Parker but I still think they’re live bets for this market. At 34.0 they offer excellent EW value.
Prior to QB Teddy Bridgwater’s injury I had the Minnesota Vikings as favourites to win thier division over Green Bay. They would have run a conservative ball control style of offence relying on the running game with Adrian Peterson and their defence. Now, even with the trade for Sam Bradford, I can see them being even more run-focused. The defence is top 10, maybe top 5 or 6 so they can probably still finish 2nd in their division using this approach. I do think they might struggle to score points however. A small bet at odd of 41.0 EW is interesting.
Lowest Scoring Team – Tips
Bet on the San Francisco 49ers to score the fewest points in 2016 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 8.00 with William Hill.
Bet on the Miami Dolphins to score the fewest points in 2016 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.00 with William Hill.
Back them both here:
I looked at the Top Sacks market but really cannot decide who of JJ Watt, Khalil Mack or Von Miller will win out. They can each be backed in the 4.5-6.0 range EW so a bet on any of them should at worst return your stake.
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