Most Passing Yards
This betting preview is the first of a number of NFL markets we will be exploring for the 2016 season.
The Favourites
Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) has averaged over 5,000 passing yards since 2011. This is an unprecedented run and includes three of his four 5,000+yard seasons. The Saints do now have a running attack with Mark Ingram, but he has had issues with health. For the Saints to do well and I feel they are fighting Tampa Bay for 2nd place in their division, Brees will have to perform at these lofty levels. Helping him in this market is wide receiver Brandin Cooks a legitimate deep threat with yards after catch ability. Brees is favourite in this market at odds in the 6.5-7.0 range and I think he is the man to beat in 2016. He does face the AFC West defences but he has so much experience and the weapons to do okay in those games.
Second favourite is Ben Rothlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He has the luxury of having an explosive set of wide receivers to throw to, led by Antonio Brown. He does lose Martavius Bryant to a season long suspension but Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates should fill his shoes. The reason I don’t think Rothlisberger wins this market is the strength of the Steelers running game, especially when Le’Veon Bell returns. To protect Rothlisberger, the Steelers OL has some pass protection issues I can see them relying a little more on the run game. That will reduce the opportunities to put up huge passing yards game after game.
The next group
A group of 5 QBs follow these two in the market and can be backed in the 11.0-15.0 range.
Philip Rivers (San Diego) put up big yardage figures last season even after top WR Keenan Allen got injured. A couple of things scare me about backing Rivers. Firstly, is facing AFC West defences in 6 of his 16 games. This includes the ferocious Broncos and two teams that will bring a lot of pass-rushers in Kansas City and Oakland. Second, top draft pick in 2015 running-back Melvin Gordon has looked really good in the pre-season. If this continues into the regular season the playbook can be adapted to a better run/pass mix. This will reduce Rivers chances of passing for the most yards.
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) is coming off a poor year that was hampered by injury. Was 2015 an anomaly or did the NFL catch up to the Colt’s offence? I think it’s a bit of both. He will have an elite WR to throw to in TY Hilton. But I think his chances are hampered by a defence that will give up a lot of points and by the improvements made by the other three teams in the AFC South. I can see them finishing 4th in the division!
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) is a little more intriguing. He gets back his number one WR in Jordy Nelson and that will open up the playbook. Rodgers and Tom Brady are the best two QBs in the NFL but Rodgers has never thrown for more than 4,643 yards. This is because he is so efficient and not prone to turnovers. This means he needs fewer drives to get results than some of the other QBs I will mention below. The Packers also have a rejuvenated looking RB in Eddie Lacy that the team can lean on once more. If Lacy falters then Rodgers has the skills to throw for a lot of yards. I’m not sure he can top Brees or Rothlisberger though.
Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) has a great set of receivers to work with in the desert. What he also has this year is a running game that looks on paper to be explosive, led by RB David Johnson. Palmer has had injury issues so I feel the Cardinals will rely more on the running game to protect Palmer. I can see 4,400 yards but no more and that won’t place in this market.
Eli Manning (New York Giants) rounds out this group. There are a number of plus points for Eli but one huge negative. The positives – he has All-World WR Odell Beckham Jnr and a rookie with huge potential in Sterling Shepard. The divisional matchups are favourable outside of the Redskins. The running game at times can be powerful. BUT they might have the worst OL in the NFC. Manning could be running for his life all season long. He is also prone to streakiness and can lapse into a stretch of games with multiple interceptions. Even at odds of 15.0 I’m not biting.
The Rest
A player I think that stand out as being way over-priced in this market is Blake Bortles (Jacksonsville Jaguars). Bortles finished 7th in this category in 2015 and is playing on a team that is improving quickly. He has two WRs that will go over 1,000 yards in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. TE Julius Thomas should also be a bigger factor in the passing game in 2016. The OL has a new top ten LT in Kelvin Beachum and improved at RB with the addition of Chris Ivory. Bortles does throw more interceptions than the players mentioned above – a negative. BUT an improved defence will create more turnovers = more chances for Bortles. At odds in the low 20s I’m game for an EW bet.
I’m going to include Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) here. I don’t like the Falcons at all as a team and think they could be in the running for a top 3 overall draft pick in 2017. Ryan can be flustered badly by a pass rush but he does have arguably the best physical talent at the WR in the NFL in Julio Jones. Jones will get 1,750+ yards alone. What works against Ryan is the defences he will face – Carolina (twice), Seattle then the 4 AFC West teams who all have elite pass-rusher and lockdown CBS. I will look elsewhere.
Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders) could be in the mix for top 6 and can be backed in the low-30s. The Raiders are a sexy pick to breakthrough in 2016 and make the playoffs. They are my team, I do agree they are improved but I think 2017 is the real break out. Carr has a soon-to-be number one WR in Amari Cooper, the steady Michael Crabtree and a huge talent in TE Clive Walford. They also have the best OL outside of Dallas. Carr shouldn’t be sacked a lot. I have concerns the running game may not be effective. Lead RB Latavius Murray is a one direction runner but the playbook calls for a RB with change of direction skills. If they don’t get the rookie RBs involved early the Raiders could become too one-dimensional and that is easier for NFL defences to contain. I will wait until 2017.
Another player that I think will feature in 2017 is Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay). They too are an ascending team with strong WR’s. They too are young and sometimes they need to lose a few close games to understand what it takes to win.
Most Passing Yards – Tips
WON – Bet on Drew Brees to throw for the most passing yards in 2016 with a 1.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 7.00 with Paddy Power.
Back him here:
Back Blake Bortles to throw for the most passing yards in 2016 with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 26.00 with Skybet.
Bet here:
