Most Receiving Yards
I think this will be a highly competitive market with a number of players in contention for the top three spots. In 2015 26 players caught enough passes to exceed the 1,000 yard mark. I think there could be 30+ in 2016
The Big Two
Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) put up ridiculous number sin 2015 – 136 catches for 1,834 yards. The former tied Julio Jones for the NFL lead whilst the latter led the AFC. I see no reason for Brown to not match or exceed those numbers in 2016. He has a top 5 QB in Ben Rothlisberger and he might see even more targets because the Steelers lost starting WR Martavis Bryant to a year long suspension. The 2,000 yard plateau has not yet been exceeded in a single season in this market. I think that will be seriously challenged in 2016. Brown can be backed in 4.0-5.0 range and you should make your money back and then some.
Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons) matched Brown’s 136 catches in 2015 but went for 1,871 yards. Now that Calvin Johnson has retired Jones is probably the most imposing athlete in the NFL at the WR position. He has strong hands, will beat you deep, short and run over tacklers. He truly is a dominant force. The Falcons should have a slightly better running game in 2016 and they should have a reliable second WR in free agent Mohamed Sanu. Both factors might cut into his catch numbers in 2016 but I figure he will still be the top 5 at worst. Jones can be backed at 6.50 so the EW option works.
The Fabulous Four
Odell Beckham Jnr (New York Giants) has possibly the best hands at the position in NFL history. He is explosive and has a QB in Eli Manning that will get him the ball. My concerns are the Giant’s offensive line is a weak point. This may disrupt the passing game reducing the opportunities to put up huge numbers. There is also that ‘hot-headedness’ that was on display in the game with Carolina and CB Josh Norman in 2015. Norman is now with the Redskins so will face off with OBJ twice in 2016. OBJ should have been ejected when they faced off in 2015. Emotions will run high in the first re-match – any stupid behaviour might cost OBJ a suspension. Not for me even at generous odds of 9.0-11.0.
DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans) struggled through a number of different QBs in the 2015 season yet still managed an impressive 111 catches for 1,521 yards. Both good enough for 3rd in the NFL. This year the Texans hope free agent QB Brock Osweiller, two rookie WRs and an improved running game create a more efficient offence. Hopkins is a nightmare for CBs and there is definite scope for a 10%+ improvement on his 2015 numbers. You can get odds of 11.0 on Hopkins and I like this a lot.
AJ Green (Cincinnati Bengals) will have a number of games where he approaches 200 yards receiving. But he will also have some where he is around the 60 yard mark. This is not a slight on Green it is just the way the offence works in Cincinnati. They have a strong running game and in some games they will rely on this because it produces results. I like Green to match last years numbers 86-1,297, but not go much higher.
Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers) returns from a season ending injury in 2015 to link up with QB Aaron Rodgers. His average yardage for the 2013-2014 seasons were in the mid 1,400s. Can he return to those numbers in his first year back? I’m not convinced and I think Green Bay will use him in a smart way. They will want to minimise any risks particularly in the early games. My projection would be something like 85-1,200 for 2016.
Take a Flyer on
I have predicted in a separate post that QB Blake Bortles will challenge the NFL lead in passing yards in 2016. If that occurs then Allen Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars) is going to have spectacular numbers too. In 2015 he caught 80 passes for 1,400 yards. That was an average of 17.5 yards per catch – tops amongst players with 1,000 yards. I can see both increasing in 2016 and possibly putting him close to Brown and Jones. The one concern is consistency at the QB position. Bortles is still young and he does tend to throw interceptions. On the flipside of the coin Bortles also throws deep a lot so Robinson will get his chances. At odds as high as 34.0 I’m keen on a small bet.
Alshon Jeffrey (Chicago Bears) missed a number of game with injury in 2015. He is the Bears focal point on offence and should exceed 1,200 yards in 2015. There is some inconsistency in QB Jay Cutler’s play and the schedule isn’t the easiest in 2016. I think his odds at 26.0 are too short in this market.
Brandon Marshall (New York Jets) had the second 1,500+yardage total of his career in 2015. He was exceptional particularly in the second half of the season. The Jets lost leading rusher Chris Ivory in free agency so that might mean a slight shift in emphasis to the passing game in 2016. If so Marshall should be able to go close to matching his 2015 numbers. Thing is I don’t think that will be enough to finish in the top 3.
Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys) has been hurt massively by the back injury to QB Tony Romo. Bryant also missed 7 games due to injury in 2015. When healthy and with a fit Romo I think Bryant could be expected to challenge in this market. The injury to Romo means the focus must shift to the running game. The OL is excellent and excel as run blockers so at best I see something like 1,100 yards for Bryant in 2016.
Outsiders
A number of receivers have potential to jump a lot higher during the 2016 season.
Keenan Allen (San Diego) was leading the NFL in catches prior to his injury in 2015. He is back to team with QB Philip Rivers in 2016. Whilst Allen caught a lot of passes his average yardage per catch was low at 10.8. For him to challenge that would need to jump into the 13.5+ range. He also plays 6 games in the competitive AFC West so I have to say no on Allen.
Brandin Cooks (New Orleans Saints) had a breakthrough in 2016 with an 84-1,138 season. Cooks should easily be able to improve on this in 2016 with Drew Brees throwing to him. Cooks has good deep speed and I think that will be a bit more in evidence in 2016. At 51.0 I am tempted to place a small EW bet at 51.0. The concern – he gets to play 4 games against the AFC West teams and then 4 against the NFC West. These teams feature tough defences that will see targets spread around as Brees looks for advantages.
TY Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) has 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons and should easily make it 4 in 2016 with Andrew Luck passing to him. I just don’t see enough to get him in to the top 3 especially as I think the Colts struggle in an improving division.
Sammy Watkins (Buffalo Bills) and Amari Cooper (Oakland Raiders) are both recent high draft picks for their respective teams. They both have the talent to make the top 5-6 but I think that happens for both in 2017. They both have young QB’s and are on teams with raised expectations in 2016. The Bills and Raiders will be competitive in 2016 and have wildcard hopes. I see 1,250-1,300 yards for each in 2016 and then another jump in 2017.
Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos) has 4 straight 1,300+ yards seasons including an NFL leading 1,619 in 2014. They were with Peyton Manning at QB and he has now retired. The Broncos will be starting second year QB Trevor Sieman. I think he will be in a game manager type of playbook in 2016. The Broncos will rely on their defence and running game to be competitive. The passing game will be modelled on a system to minimise turnovers. Due to that I cannot back Thomas.
Most Receiving Yards – Tips
Back Antonio Brown to lead the NFL in receiving yards with a 2.0/10 stake at 5.00 with Paddy Power.
Back DeAndre Hopkins to lead the NFL in receiving yards with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 10.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
Back Allen Robinson to lead the NFL in receiving yards with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with SkyBet.
Back Brandin Cooks to lead the NFL in receiving yards with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with SkyBet.
Bet here:
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