The NFL season has moved to Week 12 of the campaign and we are getting to the stage where every match is vital for those chasing either their division title or a wildcard spot in the playoffs. It begins with the Houston Texans hosting the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South clash.
Top spot is on the line for these two on Thursday night. The Colts go into the match ahead on record in the division and they’ll go further clear with a win here but the Texans will overtake them if they win on virtue of having a better record in the Conference.
Houston Texans
If the Texans are going to win this match then they are going to have to bounce back from an absolute mauling at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens last week. With just four days between run outs that is going to be quite some effort because they really were taken apart by the Ravens. If they can come back from that they are a decent side but you have to think they could be fragile in this match, even with the Ravens bossing things at the minute.
The good thing for their defence is they won’t be coming up against Lamar Jackson here but there are still enough weapons in the Colts offense to challenge them, so it might be that DeShaun Watson is going to have to get this one done himself. That is perfectly possible but the Texans have already lost to the Colts this term so there are a lot of mental question marks over him. Justin Reid, Tashaun Gipson and Will Fuller being injury doubts are not helpful.
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Indianapolis Colts
There is a real up and down nature to the Indianapolis Colts. Like their opponents here they are 6-4 for the season but among those four losses is a defeat to a woeful Miami Dolphins and an average Pittsburgh Steelers. On the flip side of that there is a win over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans. In fact they are perfect in the division after last week’s success over the Jacksonville Jaguars and a further win here will really put some ground between them and the Texans with matches running out.
The injury to Marlon Mack is not ideal but TY Hilton is expected to be fit but Eric Ebron being questionable is not perfect so the Colts are having to play through a few injuries and of course they have the problem of being the road team on a short week. Jacoby Brissett will be tested to the full here and while he hasn’t always delivered, as I eluded to above the better teams seem to bring the best of him and his teammates.
Betting
I’ve got a feeling for the Indianapolis Colts here but regular readers will know I’m no fan of taking the away side on a Thursday night. I abandoned that approach last week and paid the price so I’m going back in my shell this week. I certainly can’t be backing the Texans after the mother of all beatings that they took on Sunday so it is heading to the other markets for a bet for me.
I like the points in this match. Clearly the Texans have just shipped more than 40 of them to Baltimore and while I don’t see Indianapolis Colts scoring that many, I do think they’ll score. This is must win for the Houston Texans you would think so for every score Indy put up the Texans will have to take risks to reply. I think that can lead to a fairly high scoring match and as such over 45.5pts will do me.
Tips
Back Over 45.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.87 with Betfred
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