The Week 14 Sunday Night Football match was meant to take us to Denver for an AFC West clash between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs but it will be the Miami Dolphins’ trip to the Los Angeles Chargers that will take place in that programme instead.
This is a key match between two sides who are looking to chase down leaders in their respective divisions and if they can’t do that over the next five weeks then ensure they have enough wins to make it into the playoffs with a wildcard.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers go into this match with a 6-6 record which they really need to improve on if they are going to chase down the Kansas City Chiefs this season. They will need to improve on it just to make a wildcard in the AFC because you wouldn’t think anyone with a losing record is going to get in with the way that the standings are right now. Any side who needs to improve their record has to be ensuring they win at home so this is a key game.
Justin Herbert went up against a defence which really came to the party last week and he and his team came up a little short. They face a kinder looking defence here and will need to take advantage of that. Their own defence is going to need to stand up to what is expected to be a fair bit of scrutiny from an offense which is now one of the most potent in the league. The good thing for the Chargers is that since Herbert has arrived in Los Angeles, the Bolts are no strangers to winning shootouts.
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Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins also go into this match off the back of a defeat last week. Their loss came to the San Francisco 49ers, which going into the game might not have looked much of a defeat but when you consider that San Francisco played a fair chunk of the match with rookie third choice quarterback Brock Purdy it might feel like a missed opportunity for the Dolphins. That San Francisco defence is the best in the league so the Miami offense should have it easier here.
To be fair to Tua and co, they punched some holes in that 49ers defence last week with Tyreeq Hill in particular having a good game. This Los Angeles one is nothing like as strong as that one was so you would imagine that Miami should be able to put up a number of points in this match. That then leaves the outcome potentially coming down to whether they can keep the Los Angeles offense in check or not. They might need to find more of a pass rush to assist with that.
Betting
I’m expecting something of a shootout here but there isn’t a huge amount of wiggle room on a point line which is around the 54-55 mark. If I was forced to play it I would take the over here but I wouldn’t be completely surprised if it came up a score short of that. I’ve definitely no interest in the under and I wouldn’t really want to come out on the wrong side of a last to have the ball wins type shootout either so I’m going to head to the player markets for a bet on this one.
That comes in the form of the receiving yards for Tyreeq Hill who could just have a monster game here. The Chargers were torched by Davante Adams last week and Hill is a quicker version of him. We know that Miami are a pass first offense which plays into the hands of Hill, who at 86.5 has a very low receiving yards line. He has gone beyond 100 yards in six of the 12 Miami games this season including against elite Baltimore and San Francisco defences, and also caught for 94 in another. The Chargers’ pass defence is nothing special and I expect Hill, who knows it well from his Kansas City days, to feast on it all night.
Tips
Back T.Hill – Over 86.5 receiving yards for a 3/10 stake at 1.90 with Coral
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