With the week 14 games I’m taking two games in the NFC and both from the early time kickoffs. There are only 3 games in the later kickoff time slot and I’m not keen on any of them from a betting perspective.
Early Games
Kickoff – 1pm Eastern – 4pm UK
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Team markets
The Bears travel to Detroit in an NFC Central divisional clash. The Bears beat the 49ers in week 13 to take their record to 3-8. This has been a disappointing season in Chicago – with huge issues at the QB position. The Bears have some quality with the likes of RB Jordan Howard but I think they struggle in Detroit. The Lions are division leaders at 8-4 with 4 wins on the bounce. In week 13 they won in New Orleans in the first game of the 2016 season in which they did not trail in the 4th quarter!
The Lions success this season has been built on ball control offense with a high 3rd down conversion percentage. This is for two reasons – the Lions don’t have elite speed at any of the playmaker positions and this keeps their average rated defense fresh. Detroit needs to keep winning to keep pace with Seattle in the race for the number 2 playoff seeding and a home playoff game. QB Matt Stafford is firmly in the NFL MVP race for the season. I don’t think the Bears have the defense to slow him down. Last week the Lions should have scored close to 40 points in New Orleans if they could have converted better in the red zone. They had 1 touchdown and 5 field goals from 6 visits.
Chicago starts Matt Barkley at QB and the results have been mixed. He has not been helped by dropped catches and the 4 week suspension of star WR Alshon Jeffrey. Still Barkley has more interceptions than touchdown passes and a low completion percentage. The Detroit secondary has improved as the season has progressed and got 3 interceptions against Saints QB Drew Brees last week. Expect them to stifle Barkley here. The Bears running game has been effective at times but it won’t be enough against the Lions.
Chicago won the first meeting, in week 4 by a 17-14 score. Since then the Lions have improved whilst the Bears have gone backwards. The spread is set at Lions -7.5 and I can see them winning by 10 points plus. This game has meaning for the Lions whilst the Bears are playing for draft position.
Player Markets
I’m tempted at Matt Stafford’s passing yardage line of 255.5. In the earlier meeting with Chicago he threw for 213 yards but is playing better than that now. He has a lot of weapons in the short/intermediate passing game but no consistent deep threat. It is the latter which is the slight concern – if you can guarantee one 40+ yard pass per game then I would be all over this line. This is one you could take but I’m not sold either way.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
Team markets
My second selection of the week is another all NFC battle. This one sees two bitter NFC East division rivals clash in Philadelphia.
The Eagles looked like playoff contenders in the first 3 weeks of the 2016 season. They won all three games including a stunning 34-3 win over the Steelers. Since then however they have 2 wins with 7 losses. The last three weeks have seen losses by 11 points (v Seattle), 14 points (v Green Bay) and 18 points (v Cincinnati). This is indicative of a team struggling to find any form.
Washington have lost 2 straight games but are still in contention for a wildcard playoff spot with their 6-5-1 record. They MUST WIN this game to stay in the playoff battle. The offense has been carried by the play of QB Kirk Cousins. He has been consistent, thrown for a lot of yards and touchdowns and in the whole avoided turnovers. This has propelled them to number 2 in total yards per game in the NFL team rankings.
The Redskins won the first meeting between the two in week 5 by a 27-20 score. In this week 14 clash the bookmakers have Washington as a 2.5 point favourite. Given the Eagles performances in their previous 3 games this looks very generous. Washington have a number of weapons in the passing game that can cause matchup problems in the short, medium and long passing lanes. I don’t see how they can be contained for 60 minutes and the Redskins will win this one with ease.
Player Market
Kirk Cousins passing yardage line is set at 280.5 on Sunday. This is some 40 yards below his per game average in the 2016 season. In the week 5 clash he passed for 263 yards. One more completion in that game would have pushed him close to the 280 mark. I like him to exceed 300 here especially if TE Jordan Reed is available once more.
Week 14 – Tips
Bet on the Detroit Lions (-7.5) to beat the Chicago Bears for a 3.0/10 stake at 2.05 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
WON – Bet on the Washington Redskins (-2.5) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.95 with Boylesports.
Back them here:
Bet on Kirk Cousins to throw for more than 280.5 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 3.0/10 stake with Paddy Power.
Back him here:
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