The NFL Regular Season is fast drawing to a conclusion. A number of teams can book their playoff spot during Week 15 action. There is also a race for the number one draft pick with Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett being the likely choice.
Here I will preview two games and give my tips on the outcome of each.
Early Kickoffs – 1pm Eastern – 6pm UK
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens
Team Markets
The Ravens need to win their remaining 3 games to make the postseason. They are smarting from their defeat to New England in week 14 and are coming into this game with the Eagles angry. The Ravens at 7-6 have fallen a game behind the Steelers in the AFC North but play them on Christmas Day. They must win this game to stand any chance of winning their division. Given the standings in the AFC it looks like only one team from the North will make the playoffs. The Ravens hope it is them.
I backed the Redskins to beat the Eagles in week 14. I got it right but the Eagles were better than I expected seeing as they had 3 games with 10+ points defeats going into week 14. They were helped in that game with an interception return for a touchdown, but they did make Washington work. The Eagles are now on a 4 game losing streak and have lost 8 of their last 9 games after a 3-0 start. They could get to .500 by winning out but they haven’t looked like achieving a single win in recent games. I do like the Eagles front 7, especially the DL but I’m not sure this unit can win them a game on its own.
The spread for this game is -6 Ravens and I really like this. It is quite easy to visualise another 10+ point loss for the Eagles in Baltimore. The Ravens passing game is working really well, they have a strong pass rush and the DBs are good. The Ravens safety tandem are excellent against TEs. They will look to nullify Eagles TE Zach Ertz – the favourite weapon of rookie QB Carson Wentz. If they succeed this will force Wentz to have to throw more intermediate and long passes. This will give the Ravens pass rush more time to get to Wentz and impact the Eagles passing game forcing 3 and outs and turnovers. I have a strong conviction that the Ravens will win at home comfortably.
Player Markets
I’m going to place a smaller bet on Joe Flacco to go over 263.5 yards. The Ravens are very much a pass first team. Flacco, whilst widely inconsistent, is close to his best form in the last two games. He will spread the ball to a number of different players and I think this will push him over this line.
Late Kickoff – 4pm Eastern – 9pm UK
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
Team Markets
I looked at a number of other games but settled on this one for two reasons:
- This is looking like it is the last game to be played in San Diego with the Chargers being the home team;
- I’m a Raiders fan and a win takes them back to the post-season for the first time since 2002.
On paper this looks like a resounding Raiders win. The Raiders have a 10-3 record, good for second best in the AFC, whilst the Chargers are 5-8. The Raiders won in Oakland earlier in the season after San Diego mis-handled a snap on a potential game-winning Field-goal attempt. However, if sport were this simple we would all be millionaires!
The fact this is probably the last time the Chargers play as a home team (we don’t know what will happen with future NFL expansion) means they will play with emotion. The Raiders know a win = playoffs so there is an incentive to start fast. There is also some pressure on what is a young team that has few players with post-season success.
Chargers QB Phillip Rivers and his TE Antonio Gates have historically gashed the Raiders. They are both advancing in age but have been effective this season. Rivers has struggled of late with turnovers – especially interceptions. If that continues here on Sunday they cannot win the game. Oakland rarely turns the ball over, mainly due to a dominant OL and a QB who will throw the ball away or check-down. The loss of RB Melvin Gordon hurts the Chargers in two ways. He is their best runner and he is adept in the passing game. This may force them to become too one-dimensional and this brings the Oakland pass-rush into play.
As a Raiders fan I have some bias, but even with a 10-3 record they have not yet had a game this year where all 3 units function for 60 minutes. They have had spells like the second half against Buffalo where everything works. If they can put together a complete 60 minutes like that half they will pummel an opponent.
In week 14 the Raiders lost a key game in Kansas City because QB Derek Carr had his worst game of the season. Carr has always struggled in cold weather but the climate in San Diego is much better. Carr’s injured pinkie finger also has had another 10 days to get better. The Chargers secondary is strong, but the amount of time the Raiders OL gives Carr should see his receivers getting open. Chargers DE Joey Bosa looks like he will play but play injured. He got 2 sacks in the earlier game with Oakland so he is vital for San Diego.
The Raiders are -2.5 on the spread. That is only a FG and I think it is too light. Oakland is relatively healthy and gets back its number two DE Mario Edwards this week. The Chargers have injuries everywhere and even though there is historical significance for the Chargers I cannot see past an Oakland win.
Player Markets
Antonio Gates has been a Raider-killer in the past – and in lots of games! His line here is 48.5 receiving yards and I really like this. Oakland have struggled to cover TEs all year. This is partly due to ILB injuries but also due to an inability to match-up with them combined with coverage breakdowns.
Raider WR Amari Cooper’s line is 63.5 yards. I’m tempted to take the overs too but I have one concern. For some reason Cooper has not been the primary target in the Oakland passing game for about 4 weeks. This somewhat confuses the Raiders fan base because he simply makes plays. As I don’t want to push my Oakland favouritism on you all I will leave this selection from my tips – but I think he goes way over!
Week 15 – Tips
Bet on the Baltimore Ravens (-6.0) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles with a 4.0/10 stake at 1.95 with Boylesports.
Back them here:
WON – Bet on the Oakland Raiders (-2.5) to beat the San Diego Chargers with a 4.0/10 stake at 2.15 with Paddy Power.
Back them here:
Bet on Joe Flacco to exceed 263.5 passing yards for a 2.50/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Bet on Antonio Gates to exceed 48.5 receving yards with a 3.0/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power.
Back them both here:
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