The DP World Tour heads to Spain for the start of the Iberian Swing this week with the first of four tournaments in this part of the world being the historic Open de Espana, a fairly low scoring beginning to a good month of golf.
Rafa Cabrera Bello was the latest home man to get his hands on this title a year ago and he’ll be eyeing up a successful title defence in a very competitive looking field which has one standout name in particular.
Recent Winners
2021 – Rafa Cabrera Bello
2019 – Jon Rahm
2018 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Andrew Johnston
2015 – James Morrison
2014 – Miguel Angel Jimenez
2013 – Raphael Jacquelin
2012 – Francesco Molinari
2011 – Thomas Aiken
2010 – Alvaro Quiros
The Course
The Club de Campo Villa de Madrid is the venue for the tournament this week. This is the third tournament in succession that we have been at this course. As with the previous two, the track is a par 71 which stretches out to 7,112 yards which isn’t particularly long by modern standards, especially when the course is some 2,500m above sea level. That means we are looking for players who have good distance control.
The track has undulating greens where being on the right part of them is pivotal. The fairways are treelined but at this time of the year there is not likely to be much in the way of rough. There isn’t too much in terms of a test off the tee so it might be the second shot and in where the field gets sorted out. Look for strong iron players who are wielding a decent putter in what is likely to be a low scoring competition.
The Field
The field is headlined by a couple of players in the top 50 of the world rankings this week. They are the 2018 and 2019 champion of this event in Jon Rahm as well as Tommy Fleetwood. Four other members of the top 100 are in the field here. They are the home players Adri Arnaus and Pablo Larrazabal as well as international stars Min Woo Lee and Thriston Lawrence, each of whom will be having strong sights set on this title.
There are plenty of players inside the top 50 in the Race to Dubai rankings who are teeing it up here looking to enhance their position with tournaments running out to add to their points. They include the defending champion Rafa Cabrera Bello, Made in Himmerland winner Oliver Wilson, Richie Ramsay, Ashun Wu Jorge Campillo, David Law and Yannik Paul. Eddie Pepperell, Grant Forrest and Edoardo Molinari are other notables in the field this week.
Market Leaders
The Spanish star Jon Rahm is no bigger than 9/4 to get the title back that he relinquished a year ago. You wouldn’t say 2022 has been the best year for Rahm but you would imagine if he is even 80% of his best here then he is a huge danger here. He has everything you need to go well around here as we have seen in the past. He comes in here off the back of a runner up at Wentworth where he closed with a 62. The only thing not to like about Rahm here is the price.
Tommy Fleetwood is the other truly class act in the field this week and he is no bigger than 17/2 to beat Rahm to the title. He has had a couple of fair efforts since The Open without anything spectacular and he will tee it up in this tournament for the first time. If he is pinpoint with his game then he could lay a significant challenge down to Rahm but he will need to be at his best because the signs are this will be low scoring. He feels a little short to me.
Adri Arnaus is 18/1 to win his home tournament. He ended a run of three missed cuts in a row last week in Scotland and would have been much better than T22 had he not shot 80 in the tough conditions on the Friday. Arnaus has already won in Spain this season when he took down the Catalunya Championship and has finished fourth and second in the two events on this course so if last week sharpened up his game he’s a more than live runner here.
Eddie Pepperell is the only other player in the field who is shorter than 33/1. He can be backed at 28/1 this week but he is starting to become a little expensive to follow even though I’m convinced he is teetering on the edge of his best form again. I suspect when he gets back in the winner circle it will be on a tougher test than this. He missed the cut here last year even though he shot -2 for the 36 holes he played. He has never made the top 10 in nine trips to the various Spanish tournaments so he isn’t for me.
Main Bets
Thriston Lawrence has already won twice this season and both have been in relatively low scoring tournaments. He shot -12 in a 36 hole win at the Joburg Open before carding -18 to win the Omega European Masters. The key to both of those events were that they were at altitude a little like this one is so he should be very comfortable making adjustments to his yardages and things like that. Lawrence hasn’t pulled up trees with three missed cuts in four since he won in Switzerland but he was T20 in France in between and shot 67 and 69 in the first and third rounds last week but missed the cut when the tough conditions on Friday found him out. In the last two tournaments Lawrence has made the cut he has led the field in strokes gained on approach and ranked eighth so he is setting up a lot of birdie chances and if the putts drop he’s a massive runner here.
Grant Forrest comes in here off the back of a top 10 at the Dunhill Links last week where he managed to survive the terrible conditions which shows he has control of the golf ball right now. He was also third at the Cazoo Classic and T30 in France where he had a bit of a weekend to forget. Forrest ranks well in greens in regulation and is always a good putter as evidenced by the fact he paced the field in strokes gained with the putter in the Cazoo Classic. He has gone low on a few occasions this season and was third here last year. Off the back of a good week in Scotland last week I think he’s another with solid claims here.
Outsiders
Louis de Jager heads to Spain with recent form of 3-9-41-MC-22 and the 22 would have been a lot better had he not shot 75 in the tough conditions on the Friday last week. The South African should be used to a bit of altitude and is hitting a lot of greens at the minute. He has been in the top four for putting average in three of his last four made cuts and looks to have all the scoring departments of his game in good order. This is a weaker field than what he has been thriving in recently so at 66/1 he feels a little overpriced here.
Oliver Wilson is the second best in strokes gained around the greens this season and comes in here with his confidence high after his win in the Made in Himmerland last month. He missed the cut last week but that was only because he fell apart on the Friday when he shot 79 but there is enough to suggest that he has continued his good form. Wilson has been finding plenty of greens in recent times and usually confidence ensures the putter is hot. He beat a better field than this is we take Rahm out of the equation and at a three figure price feels big here.
Tips
Back T.Lawrence to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back G.Forrest to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back L.de Jager to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back O.Wilson to win Open de Espana (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
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