The international swing part of the DP World Tour season continues this week when the show moves from Bahrain to Qatar for the Qatar Masters, a tournament which has become a regular on the circuit and which usually delivers some exciting golf.
Sami Valimaki won this tournament last year when it was played much later in the year. That helped him to graduate to the PGA Tour where he is playing this week so we are guaranteed a different winner this time around.
Recent Winners
2023 – Sami Valimaki
2022 – Ewen Ferguson
2021 – Antoine Rozner
2020 – Jorge Campillo
2019 – Justin Harding
2018 – Eddie Pepperell
2017 – Jeunghun Wang
2016 – Branden Grace
2015 – Branden Grace
2014 – Sergio Garcia
The Course
We are back at the wonderful Doha Golf Club once again this week. The 7,400 yard par 72 track has been a feature of this tournament throughout its history. It sounds long on paper but with the dry air we know the ball flies further so it isn’t a long track by any means. The way it has been created, with many doglegs and small greens means there isn’t a lot of joy in overcoming it with power. That gives it plenty of defence and the wind acts as further defence against pure ball strikers.
Given the firmness of the tracks out in this part of the world the course needs to be played from the fairways for the best control into the greens. A good putter is always needed in this part of the world, as is comfort in the wind because this is an exposed track like we saw in the desert events earlier in the year so don’t have those who don’t have a good record in the wind high up on your shortlist. Good iron players who flight the ball low and putt well are the ones to be on here.
The Field
We are at that stage of the year where some decent events are on the horizon in America so the bigger names are in that part of the world preparing for what is to come there. As such we have just four players from the top 100 in the world rankings teeing it up here, led by Rasmus Hojgaard, who will surely be motivated by seeing his brother Nicolai go so close on the PGA Tour recently. The other three players in the top 100 in the rankings are Keita Nakajima and the South African pair of Thriston Lawrence and Zander Lombard.
The majority of the top 20 in the Race to Dubai rankings are in the field this week. Among the top 10 are Rikuya Hoshino and Dylan Frittelli, who will both be hoping to enhance their position in those standings. Those looking to force their way into the top 10 include Jesper Svensson, Aaron Cockerill, Frederic Lacroix, Darren Fichardt, Jayden Schaper, Pablo Larrazabal, who came alive around this time last year, and Sebastian Soderberg.
Market Leaders
Rasmus Hojgaard is the leading player in the field in terms of the world rankings and he sits at the head of the betting this week. The Dane can be taken at 11/1 to win the tournament. He certainly won’t be lacking confidence heading into the event. His last five starts have yielded finishes inside the top 11 and that includes a runner up finish at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship a couple of weeks ago. This is his fifth tournament in succession though so the concern is that the petrol tank could be running towards empty.
Zander Lombard has made a brilliant start to the new DP World Tour season and he is 20/1 to win the tournament this week. He was the runner up in Bahrain last week which concluded a run of four successive top 20 finishes to open up his campaign. Those four tournaments have come in the last four weeks though so like Hojgaard, you will be taking it by chance that he has enough petrol in the tank for a fifth event in succession.
Tom McKibbin is the third favourite to win the tournament at 22/1 this week. He has started the season with three top 25 finishes and he was in the top 10 here in the back end of last season so there is plenty to like about the Northern Irishman already. Unlike those above him he didn’t compete in Bahrain last week which is a positive and he has a win on the DP World Tour to his name. It is hard to find too many holes in him.
Yannik Paul is next in the market at 25/1. He has had a good week followed by an indifferent one so far this season so if you are following that trend he is due a good one. He had top 10 finishes in Dubai and the Ras Al Khaimah but then in the Desert Classic and Bahrain he flattered to deceive. He has the issue that the front two in the betting also have in that this will be the fifth week of action in succession and it is never easy to keep going to the well that long.
Main Bets
Antoine Rozner is a former winner of this tournament, albeit on a different course to the one he competes on here, and I always think he is a player who should go well in this part of the world with the quality of his iron play. It is becoming more and more the important statistic around here and the Frenchman is right up there in all the iron play statistics. He has DP World Tour wins to his name, including the one not far from here in this event, and in what is a weaker field than the recent events I think this is the time he can come to the fore. He has shown he is good in the wind and this course isn’t too long for him. I expect a strong show from Rozner.
The other main bet that is like is the Japanese golfer Rikuya Hoshino. He missed the first Dubai event of 2024 and then missed the cut the following two weeks so he will be fresher than many in this field. He was just outside the top 10 last week which was a fair effort and we know he can handle firm tracks which are exposed because he finished second in both Australian events to open up the new season, in much stronger fields than the one he’ll be competing against here. He has had a spin around here now having finished T36 towards the end of last season when he opened up with two rounds which left him at eight under at the halfway mark. That had him just outside the top 10 but he faded after that. This field isn’t as good though so if he opens up as well he might just go the distance this time around.
Outsiders
Nacho Elvira is the first of my outright bets. He finished third here towards the end of last season and that improved what is actually a decent record that he has here. There is a slight concern that he has played in all four events since the turn of the year but he missed the cut last week so at least he has had a couple of days off to freshen up. The week before he finished just outside the top 15 at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. The Spaniard was third here towards the end of last season and has a second and sixth placed finish to his name around this course too and that makes me think he could have a big run here.
Whenever I see Ockie Strydom on a leaderboard I am lured into backing him the next week, largely because when I did it 15 months ago he won in South Africa. Strydom comes into this event off the back of a fourth placed finish in Bahrain last week where his approach play was spot on. If he can have that sort of iron play here we know from his wins in that South African event and in Singapore that the breeze isn’t going to be an issue. When Strydom won at this level he shot -18 and -19 which tend to be around the numbers needed here should the wind not blow so he has that in his locker. I’m happy to take a punt at a monster price.
Tips
Back A.Rozner to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Hoshino to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back N.Elvira to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back O.Strydom to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
