The semi-final line up at the Tour Championship will be finalised on Tuesday as the last two men to get their campaign underway so do, as Shaun Murphy takes on Mark Allen in the last of the quarter finals inside the Marshall Arena in Milton Keynes.
The winner of this match knows that the former world champion Mark Selby awaits them in the last four on Thursday, but they will also know that he wasn’t brilliant in his quarter final so there is the chance of a deep run for one of them here.
The Format
There are only seven matches in this tournament with the quarter finals and semi-finals being played over two sessions of action and the best-of-17 frames. The final was due to be the only match of the season outside of the World Championship to be the best-of-25 frames with the winner being crowned over three sessions, however the social distancing and health measures that are in place mean that the final on Friday will just be the best of 19 frames.
Shaun Murphy
It has been such a good season for Shaun Murphy that he comes in here as the number two seed. To be fair he looked a genuine threat in every tournament he entered before lockdown, winning the China Championship and the Welsh Open as well as making the final of the International Championship and the Shanghai Masters. Much has gone on in the world since then but if he can display any of that sort of form here he’ll be a threat.
The strength of Murphy this term has been his long potting. He has been getting in from distance with regularity this season but that might be the think which could cause a concern here having not played a competitive match for three months or so. One thing we do know is that as a student of the game, Murphy will be bang up for an event of this nature so although he lacks competitive reps he shouldn’t be short of inspiration.
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Mark Allen
It shows how consistent Mark Allen has been this season that he has made it into this tournament without making a major final thus far. That is unlike him to be fair because he has been a regular in big finals over the last few seasons. This one isn’t done yet though and he has been so close, regularly losing in the deciding frame of semi-finals against opponents who have put in sensational displays against him.
Allen showed up in the Championship League to blow off the cobwebs and actually he looked in decent touch in the balls. His long game looked a bit rusty but that is to be expected. Assuming he comes on for the run then he is entitled to go very well here. The one thing he is going to have to do in order to come through this game is score. The table is playing well so scoring looks to be a must and this should be quite an open game.
Head to Head
When you consider these two have been fairly well matched over the last few years, it is quite a surprise that Murphy leads their head to head record 13-5. He is ahead by 100 to 75 in the frame department as well so those victories that Murphy has have a good margin to them it has to be said. Murphy is on a run of three straight wins against Allen, all of which came this season and two of them over two sessions. Murphy has a 100% record in their quarter final meetings. They have played three and Murphy has won the lot so history overall would seem to favour Murphy.
Betting
We’ve not seen a close match in this tournament yet but I fancy we might see one here. I am hoping that Mark Allen wins the match because I’ve already backed him outright and if he does win this you’ve got to think we’ve more than a good chance of landing the place money at the very least. With that in mind I’m going to leave the match betting alone but I do think these two match up well and we’re set for a great quarter final.
Given that is the case the bet I like is for over 14.5 frames. Both these men play a similar game, get in from distance, get the balls open and make frame winning breaks and that should blend for a great game. Both players also know what is at stake here too so I’m expecting big things from this match. Murphy has dominated their meetings this year but Allen looks in better order now. I like over 14.5 frames at 10/11.
Tips
WON – Back Over 14.5 frames for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with William Hill
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