Tour de France Stage 7 is a departure from the terrain of the first six days. The riders enter the Pyrenees Mountains and face two more gruelling stages this weekend.
Tour de France Stage 7 – The Profile
Stage 7 starts in L’Isle-Jourdain and ends 162kms later in Lac De Payolle. This is the shortest stage so far but it also features the first category 1 climb – the Col d’Aspin.
The first 100kms of the stage is a little lumpy but not a major challenge to the riders. The gradient really increases from Tourney at around 106kms. From here the road climbs all the way to the peak of the Col d’Aspin at 156kms.
This is the first real chance to get a look at the GC riders. A lot of pundits might see this as a stage where the GC riders watch their rivals. I think we could get the first full-on head-to-head between Chris Froome (Sky) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar). Sky have a habit of attacking full on during the first mountain stage in a Grand Tour and even in some of the week long stage races. The aim being to gain time quickly. That way you control the race as rivals have to attack you – giving Team Sky the flexibility to defend and counter. Is Quintana better equipped this year to not lose time early?
The only thing that might stop the big showdown is the fact that the stage does not finish on a mountain top. There are 6kms of tricky steep descending into Lac de Payolle. Risk assessments pre-stage might dictate that the big two attack but not full bore. Yes, they might drop some of their other rivals but they might leave the maximum effort for Saturday or Sunday. I would be surprised to see the GC group contain more than 10-12 riders at the finish line. If the GC riders attack then Greg van Avermaet will almost certainly lose the yellow jersey. There is a small climb to the line.
Stage 6 – Possible Winners with Ifs and Buts
If Sky are creatures of habit then they will power up the Col d’Aspin and Chris Froome will attack. This has worked so well in previous TDF’s and in this years Criterium de Dauphine. In that race only Richie Porte could stick with Froome, but he too was dropped in the last 400 metres. Nairo Quintana did not feature in that race and I feel he would have stayed in contention. I think coming in to this years TDF that Quintana looked marginally better than Froome.
Were Froome to attack I can see only two riders together at the end of the stage 7. With that in mind the early prices for Froome 15.0 and Quintana 26.0 are just massive. They are both worth the risk of taking as small EW punts. I can guarantee we will not see their prices that high in subsequent mountain stages in the 2016 race.
Now the buts. The descent into the finish may not be to Sky nor Movistar’s liking. There are risks in descending, especially after an attack on the up slope. Each team have excellent descenders in their team so they might just ride mountain tempo up the Col d’Aspin. That way they can see how well the other GC riders are going, maybe putting some in trouble. Then there is protection for Froome and Quintana on the run in to Lac de Payole. In this scenario the favourite for the stage in the bookies minds, Alejando Valverde (Movistar) will come to the fore. You can back Valverde at odds of 6.0 and the EW bet has value. Valverde is an excellent descender so he could even escape before the finish.
Dan Martin (Etixx Quickstep) is currently 2nd favourite for stage 7 at 8.0. He has kept himself fairly quiet in the race so far and remains locked on the same time as Froome and Quintana. Martin has the explosiveness to challenge Valverde for the stage win were a small GC group to approach the finish together. If there was a longer slope to the line I would back him for the stage win.
Roman Bardet (AG2R La Mondiale) is another rider who has been in contention without showing his true form. Like Valverde he is a brilliant descender. I just cannot see him being allowed to escape as he too sits on the same time as Froome, Quintana and a handful of other GC riders. The bookmakers have some confidence in his chances as he is third favourite in the 12.0-14.0 price range.
Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) has had a poor TDF so far. Nibali has dropped out of contention for victory and looked at a shadow of his best form on Stage 5. This is the sort of stage that could excite him. He is a demon downhill and the fact he is not really a challenger for the title could give him some freedom. Of course he has to summit the Col d’Aspin in the front group to challenge for the stage win. On this weeks form that might be a big ask! I can’t back him here especially as he is possibly under team orders to support Fabio Aru from now on.
In the group finish scenario expect riders like Richie Porte, Tejay Van Garderan (both BMC Racing), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ), Warren Barguil (Giant) and a handful of others to be present alongside those mentioned above. I don’t think they would have the finish to beat Valverde, Martin or Froome for that matter but you could take a look at them as outside stage podium contenders.
There is the chance of a breakaway but I give it a 5% chance of succeeding. The time bonuses on offer and the need for the GC teams to show off their strength will reel them in.
Tour de France Stage 7 Tips
I’m going to bet on the Sky Team attack and only the best two Grand Tour riders being in contention for the win.
Back Chris Froome to win stage 7 with a 1.0/10 stage EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 15.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Nairo Quintana to win stage 7 with a 0.75/10 stage EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 26.0 with Paddy Power.
Back them both here:
