Gent-Wevelgem 2017 on Sunday 26th March completes Flemish Cycling Week. Of the three races in the region this week it is Gent-Wevelgem that is traditionally the sprinters big chance to win. This weekend’s race is the 79th edition of this illustrious event.
Belgian riders have won the race of 48 occasions – but similar to E3 Prijs Vlaanderen their success in recent years has waned. In the last 11 races the only Belgian to win the race is Tom Boonen (2011 and 2012).
Gent-Wevelgem – Previous Winners
2012 – Tom Boonen – BEL – Omega Pharma-Quick-Step
2013 – Peter Sagan – SVK – Canondale
2014 – John Degenkolb – GER – Giant-Shimano
2015 – Luca Paolini – ITA – Katusha
2016 – Peter Sagan – SVK – Tinkoff
Gent-Wevelgem – Route and Profile
Gent-Wevelgem actually starts in the town of Deinze. The race takes an anti-clockwise circuitous route through Belgium before finishing in Wevelgem after 249kms.
Like the previous two races in Flemish Cycling Week – this difficult sections of this race are all back loaded to the second half of the course.
Dwars Door Vlaanderen and E3 Prijs Vlaanderen were both split to pieces in the mid-section of the race, once the hills arrived. A team like Quick-Step Floors may try this tactic once more. They have a bunch of strong men in their team that can attack from a long way out. If they fail – they have an elite sprinter to rely on at the finish. Nine of the eleven categorised climbs in the 2017 race come between the 135-175km points of the race. The two remaining climbs come at 210kms and 215kms. From this point the remaining 34 kilometres are long straight roads to Wevelgem. Any escapees are always in sight, potentially making it easier to chase them down.
Gent-Wevelgem – The Sprinters
Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe) won from a small group of 4 riders including current rival Sep Vanmarcke in 2016. Crashed out of E3 Prijs Vlaanderen but wasn’t in the contenders group at the time. Has a number of wins and podium places so far in 2017. Sagan is favourite to win Gent-Wevelgem at odds of 3.75. What has been abundantly clear in the last two races is that his Bora team do nt have enough riders that can support Sagan. Once Quick-Step Floors attacked him he had to respond and his team-mates quickly were dropped. Sagan can counter some moves but not all. I fear Quick-Step Floors will employ similar tactics here to try to distance Sagan early.
Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step Floors) is ‘plan b’ for his team in the three races this week. The team know they have a number of riders who are strong enough to attack from 80kms out. If one fails, another tries and this has worked in each race with the team netting a win and two second places. If they fail on Sunday then they will guide Gaviria to the finish and let him unleash his devastating sprint. Odds of 7.0 open up the EW bet.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) – second to Degenkolb in a bunch sprint in 2014 and has shown good form in 2017. He hasn’t featured in either race this week but the terrain is better for him in this race. He should be in the mix for the win on Sunday and has a team that works just for him. Odds of 10.0 are attractive.
John Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) won in 2014 – the last time a pure bunch sprint decided the winner of the race. He has some decent showings in 2017 and is 4th favourite for the win on Sunday at 13.0-15.0. I’m more keen on his team-mate to be honest.
Four other sprinters that could cause a surprise:
- Dylan Groenewegen (Lotto NL Jumbo) finished 5th in Dwars Door Vlaanderen – winning the sprint from the second group on the road. This was his best showing in Europe so far this season. He has odds of 15.0 so an EW bet would be the best choice.
- Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) won every sprint he contested in the early season Australian races. He then nabbed a win in the Emirates and a 10th place in Milan-San Remo. That proved to me that he can get over classics climbs. Odds of 51.0 are massive – if he is in the front group at the end I think it’s a straight fight between Ewan and Gaviria.
- Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Merida) won a Paris-Nice sprint and was 7th at E3 Prijs Vlaanderen on Friday. He can be backed as high as 41.0 which is a tempter. He is quick and strong with a team that has been able to keep riders in the front groups of the races on Wednesday and Friday.
- Fabio Felline (Trek Segafredo) is I think a better choice for the win here than team-mate Degenkolb. His best result was 4th in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad but he has been aggressive in the two races this week. He is possibly a better shout from a smaller group but offers value at 41.0.
Gent-Wevelgem – The Strong-men
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) impressively won E3 Prijs Vlaanderen on Friday. Also won Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in February beating Sagan in a sprint finish. GVA simply knows how to race and more importantly to win in Belgium. He will try to cover the early attacks and you know if the right group forms he will help take it to the fninish line. Odds of 16.0 seriously look good.
Quick-Step Floors – take your pick from Tom Boonen (odds of 21.0), Niki Terpstra (odds of 34.0), Zdenek Stybar and Matteo Trentin (odds of 51.0). So far I have picked the wrong rider from the team in the other two Flemish Cycling Week races! They will be aggressive throughout but for once I think the team make-up suggests they may prioritise sprinter Gaviria in this race.
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) would love to break his duck in the 2017 season here. He is quick and can climb but has yet to gain a top 10 this year. Odds of 26.0 look a little on the short side to me. I think his chances will come a little later in the season.
Oliver Naesen (AG2R) finished a superb 3rd in E3 Prijs Vlaanderen. He was powerful in helping the break develop and then driving it to the finish. I think he showed his inexperience in the sprint by making the first move. He was jumped by GVA and Gilbert at the line but third was very impressive. I don’t think he has much chance in a big bunch sprint but could once more be a danger from a small break. I could be tempted ta odds around the 33 mark – 26.0 seems a little short.
Some of the others:
- Sep Vanmarcke (Canondale-Drapac) has been riding with a rib injury following a crash in the last ten days. He looked like being a threat in Dwars Door Vlaanderen and E3 Prijs Vlaanderen but went backwards in each when the pace went sky-high. I have a tough time seeing him improve here.
- Japser Stuyven (Trek Seagfredo) hasn’t reached the heights of 2016 yet. He also has more of a team role in support of Degenkolb and Felline. In light of this 23.0 is far too short.
- Jurgen Roelandts (Lotto-Soudal) has disappointed in Flemish Cycling Week. I thought he had the chance of winning on Wednesday but never really featured then or on Friday. Not for me.
- Magnus Cort Neilsen (Orica Scott) – the back-up option to Caleb Ewan and a decent sprinter in his own rights. Has a couple of wins in 2017 but not at this level. Can be backed at 67.0 so you could go EW.
Real Outsiders:
- Nikias Arndt (Sunweb) is a rider I like that has big odds at 151.0. He is here to support Matthews but he can win one day races as in this years Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race.
- Oscar Gatto (Astana) can be backed at 201.0. Gatto was 5th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in February and is a canny rider – always a danger in a small group.
Gent-Wevelgem 2017 – Tips
WON – Bet on Greg Van Avermaet to win Gent-Wevelgem with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 16.0 with NetBet.
Back Fernando Gaviria to win Gent-Wevelgem with a 1.0/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 8.75 with NetBet.
Back both here:
Back Sonny Colbrelli to win Gent-Wevelgem with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 34.0 with Betfred.
Bet here:
Back Matteo Trentin to win Gent-Wevelgem with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Oscar Gatto to win Gent-Wevelgem with a 0.20/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.0 with Paddy Power.
Bet here:
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