Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 19 takes place on Friday 26th May. The stage is another day in the mountains for the remainder of the peloton.
Well done to race leader Tom Dumoulin who managed his main GC rivals with ease on stage 18. It really looks like he will almost be impossible to beat now in the race for the Maglia Rosa.
Memo to Mikel Landa – when you’re in front you have the racing line – use it on the corners!
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 19 – Stage Profile
Stage 19 is 191kms from San Candido to Piancavallo.
The profile shows that this is an easier stage than yesterday. “Phew!” say the riders.
There are three categorised climbs during the stage and they are fairly well spread out.
The first comes at 13.9kms – a category 3 the Passo Di Croce Comelico. From here the roads trend downwards apart from an unclassified climb at 47kms.
The category 2 Sella Chanzutan is reached after a lot more descending at the 93km marker. Sella Chantzuhan is 11.7kms at about 6%. The peak comes at 105kms andthe next section of 70kms is fairly easy.
Friday’s finale is a category 1 climb to Piancavallo. The climb is almost 16kms long but the toughest sections are early. The initial 6.5kms average 9.4%, this drops to 7.5% for the next 4.5 kms and then the top 5kms averages about 3%.
This could be one for the breakaway riders to grab a stage win. If the right men are in the break then there will be a breakaway battle for the stage win and a GC battle on the final climb for time.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 19 – GC Battle
I think there may well be a shift in emphasis in the GC fight. It looks like Tom Dumoulin has successfully navigated the toughest mountain stages with a lead. He will hammer his rivals on Sunday’s stage to increase that lead. Watching the last few mountain stages, apart from the toilet incident, Dumoulin has matched everyone. Quintana and Nibali were unable to mount an attack on Dumoulin that stuck. The profiles of stages 19 and 20 look like they will suit Dumoulin too as the early climbs aren’t the toughest. So the big battle may now be between the riders in 2nd through 5th on the GC for the last two podium spots. As it stands:
- Nairo Quintana – 2nd at 31 seconds;
- Vincenzo Nibali – 3rd at 1 minute 12 seconds;
- Thibaut Pinot – 4th at 1 minute 36 seconds;
- Ilnur Zakarin – 5th at 1 minute 58 seconds.
The four have roughly 90 seconds covering their places. They have been for the most part climbing close to one another. In the first ITT – Nibali and Zakarin probably were better than expected whilst Pinot and Quintana were way down. If the time gaps form the first ITT are replicated on Stage 21 then the 4 riders may be within 30 seconds of each other. So I expect them to fight hard on stage 19 (and 20) to try to move up.
Given the terrain on stage 19 – they may allow a break to go to the line and have their own private battle on the Piancavallo climb. There may be marking again like on stage 18 so it is hard to predict what will happen. Of course they may want the bonus seconds! If you wish to back the big five they are at:
- Quintana – 3.75;
- Nibali – 8.00;
- Dumoulin -10.00;
- Pinot – 17.00;
- Zakarin – 17.00.
Only Mikel Landa appears in the top 6 of the market at 3.75. I would be stunned if he attacks again on Friday – Saturday looks better for him.
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 19 – Breakaway
The war with attrition and exhaustion may dictate who gets into the break.
Luis Leon Sanchez (Astana) was one of the few riders high up in the KOTM classification to not go in Thursday’s break. They still seek a stage win and I expect them to target the next two stages – possibly with a number of riders including Dario Cataldo. Sanchez is at 34.0 and Cataldo at 81.0.
Omar Fraile (Dimension Data) has too big a deficit to close on Landa for the KOTM Jersey. He can now target a second stage win. Fraile featured early in stage 18 but once dropped back almost 33 minutes by the finish line. I anticipate this was to preserve some effort for Friday. The team may put multiple riders in the break. Fraile is at 81.0.
I expect UAE Team Emirates to try for the stage win on Friday too. They have been active in the mountain stage breaks barring stage 18. They had 4 riders in the break on Wednesday but failed to control Pierre Rolland. Team leader Rui Costa is able to climb well enough to win from a break on the final climb of the day. Costa is at 67.0 in the early market.
Bora-Hansgrohe love a breakaway too. Patrick Konrad is their best paced GC rider in 19th place. He is almost 13 minutes behind the rider in 16th on GC so he is no real threat to leapfrog too many riders if he goes in a break. That means teams won’t have a desire to limit their time losses on him so he could make it to the line in front. Konrad as evidence by his overall GC place can climb so could be a nice choice for stage 19. Odds of 51.0 look good to me.
Julen Amezqueta (Wilier Triestina) has been in a number of breaks already and has been decent in the mountains. He looks like the best bet from the team to challenge on stage 19. His odds are crazy at 601.0!
Team Sky have come so close to stage wins with two 2nd places for Mikel Landa. I think it’s the turn of Sebastian Henao to be in stage 19’s break. He can gobble up KOTM points protecting Landa’s lead in that competition and go for the stage win. Odds of 201.0 have EW potential.
Canondale-Drapac too are sure to try to put at least one rider in a breakaway. Michael Woods and Alex Howes haven’t been in their recent attacks so may be the team options on Friday. Woods at 101.0 excites!
Both Lotto’s could do with a stage win. Lotto-NL Jumbo in particular haven’t had the race they expected with Steven Kruijswijk in 8th place when they hoped for a lot more. They’ve lost a number of riders and when Enrico Battaglin was in the break a few days ago he didn’t look great. So I will go for Stef Clement here at 201.0. I’m not sure I like any Lotto-Soudal riders for this stage.
The wildcard teams will try again for the stage win – I think they will fail once more but I like Amezqueta’s odds!
Giro d’Italia 2017 Stage 19 – Tips
Back Patrick Konrad to win stage 19 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 51.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Stef Clement to win stage 19 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 201.0 with Bet365.
Back Michael Woods to win stage 19 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 101.0 with Bet365.
Bet on Julen Amezqueta to win stage 19 with a 0.5/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 601.0 with Bet365.
Back Dario Cataldo to win stage 19 with a 0.75/10 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 81.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
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