The 108th Milan to San Remo takes place on Saturday 18th March 2017. It is also called “The Spring classic” or “La Classicissima“. The race is the first of the seasons ‘Monuments’.
Milan to San Remo – The Profile
Milan-San Remo is the longest of the ‘classic’ one day races at 291kms. The race is usually a war of attrition because of the distance covered, the weather and the terrain. The first half of the stage is flat until the 133kms point when the riders tackle the Pasco del Turchino climb.
The following 90kms are also fairly flat. It is only in the final 50kms that the profile becomes more difficult.
In this section, the riders face a number of short steep climbs. The climbs include the Cipressa at 269kms and the Poggio at 285kms. It is these last two climbs that usually are key in splitting the peloton. The roads on the Cipressa and Poggio are very narrow and they twist sharply. It is not possible to rider more than a couple of riders abreast and it is difficult for riders further back in the peloton to counter any attacks.
Milan to San Remo – Recent History
The winners of the last five Milan-San Remo races were:
- 2011 – Matthew Goss (AUS) – HTC-Highroad
- 2012 – Simon Gerrans (AUS) – GreenEDGE
- 2013 – Gerald Ciolek (GER) – MTn-Qhubeka
- 2014 – Alexander Kristoff (NOR) – Katusha
- 2015 – Jon Degenkolb (GER) – Giant Alpecin
- 2016 – Arnaud Demare (FRA) – FDJ
Recent winners include pure sprinters like Goss and to an extent Demare plus strong men who are quick – Gerrans, Degenkolb and Kristoff.
Milan to San Remo – The Favourites
I actually like the chances of 6 riders in this race. They include two from this favourites group and four from the outsiders below.
Peter Sagan (Bora Hansgrohe) is favourite to win at 4.5-5.5. Sagan has been in contention to win this race three times but finished 2nd in 2012 and 4th in 2011 & 2015. He has super form with two stage wins in Tirreno-Adriatico last week plus a 2nd and a 3rd place. Sagan also won Kuurne–Brussels–Kuurne a day after finished runner-up at Omloop het Nieuwsblad. He is the rider to beat and with the way he is riding he hard to oppose.
Fernando Gaviria (Quick-Step Floors) is 2nd favourite at 6.0. I’m a little at a loss to understand why. Yes, Gaviria has a great track career behind him but his road successes have been limited. He did beat Sagan for a stage win in Tirreno-Adriatico but I think he will struggle on the final climb here and that will knock him out of contention.
Arnaud Demare (FDJ) won here last year – his breakthrough performance at world level. There was some controversy about the win that I won’t go into here! Demare has very favourable odds at 12.0-15.0. He was strong in the early stages in Paris-Nice taking a stage win and being competitive in three others. The one advantage he has over the likes of some in this section is he is a sprinter who can climb. I like an EW here.
Jon Degenkolb (Trek Segafredo) won Milan-San Remo in 2015. He too can be backed in the 12.0-15.0 range. Degenkolb is close to his best form once more. Assuming he can get over the Poggio in the top 20 riders he could win again. Personally, I think he will have more say in Paris-Roubaix in April.
Alexander Kristoff (Katusha) was victorious here in 2014. His odds are also in the 12.0-15.0 range. Obviously, he knows how to win this race and has shown he can get over the Poggio with the best. I just don;t think he has shown enough in sprints this year to merit consideration as a potential winner.
Mark Cavendish (Dimension Data) won here is a bit of a shock result in 2009. Cavendish is one of the worst climbers of the elite sprint group. His 2017 season has been on the quiet side so far. He has been on contention for sprints with a km to go but has missed out in competing in most by the time the races hit the final 300m. Cavendish is under-priced at 15.0-19.0 (the effect of British bookmakers and British sports stars)
Greg Van Avermaet (BMC Racing) has been stellar in the early season like in 2016. He is a threat in any of the early classics races because he climbs, has tactical astuteness and is quick from a small group. I fear there are too many sprinters here for him to beat. Odds of 19.0-26.0 seem about right. No value here for me.
Milan to San Remo – Outsiders
I really like the first three riders listed here and have an interest in the next 3 too! Such a tough race to call.
Caleb Ewan (Orica-Scott) has in my eyes been the best sprinter on the UCI tour so far this year. He beat all and sundry in Australia in hot weather. Then in the middle east he beat the worlds best in a freak rain storm. His odds range from 19.0-34.0 to win on Saturday. There are two potential red flags – Ewan has never finished in the top 10 in a ‘classics’ race and he is coming off a crash in Tirreno-Adriatico. His team is incredibly strong and I really like his chances with an EW bet.
Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain-Merida) has caught my eye in 2017. I picked him in my cycling fantasy teams based on a couple of decent finishes in 2016. This year he has improved on those results and is now a serious sprint contender. Colbrelli can be backed at 19.0-26.0 and I think he can be in the mix here for the win. He is a decent outsider EW shout.
Michael Matthews (Sunweb) is team leader on Saturday. I have backed him in a couple of races so far in 2017 and he has come close to the podium, including a 4th place. Here he has odds in the 13.0-21.0 range. He has made the final group in a number of races – including in Paris-Nice on a few stages. Matthew’s is a capable climber and is fast in a sprint. A small EW bet is tempting.
Fabio Felline (Trek Segafredo) was 4th in Omlopp het Nieuwsblad in February. He has been attacking in a number of other one day and stage races since. He is not the fastest sprinter but he is quick enough to be a threat here on Saturday. The worry is whether or not he is riding for the win or to help team-mate Degenkolb instead. Odds of 34.0-41.0 tempt with a small EW bet.
Julian Alaphilippe (Quick-Step Floors) was sensational in the early part of Paris-Nice and then fell away as expected in the mountain stages. To win here you would have to think he escapes over the Poggio. He has the explosion to do this but will be very closely marked. Odds of 34.0 look about right.
Michal Kwiatkowski (Team Sky) is on his best form in his Sky career so far. He won Strade-Bianchi by escaping from the front group and riding away form them. Like Alaphilippe I think his only chance to win is to create a gap on the Poggio and solo away to win on the descent/flat into San-Remo. Arguably, he offers better value than Alaphilippe with odds up to 51.0.
Elia Viviani (Team Sky) leads the Sky charge and would be a home winner were he to cross the line first. Viviani has never come close to a ‘classic’s’ win. The bookmakers don’t rate his chances much here with his odds as high as 51.0. I’m in the ‘no’ camp in terms of his chances.
Milan to San Remo – Huge Outsiders
Nikias Arndt (Sunweb) won the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Race in January and has a number of top 10 finishes in the early European season. He has big odds at 301.0 but is the sort of rider that has the capability to be a surprise winner. The CEGOR race had hills similar to the Milan-San Remo so he can climb. If he repeats this on Saturday he could provide a huge dividends.
Danny Van Poppel (Team Sky) is the teams second sprint option in the race. His early season form, especially in Australia was very good. He can be quick from a smaller bunch and odds of 251.0 also has potential for a small EW bet.
Milan to San Remo – Tips
Bet on Peter Sagan to win Milan-San Remo with a 2.0/10.0 stake at 5.50 with Betfred.
Back Sonny Colbrelli to win Milan-San Remo with a 0.5/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 26.0 with Betfred.
Bet on both here:
Back Arnaud Demare to win Milan-San Remo with a 1.0/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 13.0 with Coral.
PLACED – Bet on Julian Alaphilipe to win Milan-San Remo with a 0.5/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 34.0 with Coral.
Back Caleb Ewan to win Milan-San Remo with a 0.75/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 4) at 34.0 with Coral.
Bet on all three here:
Back Nikias Arndt to win Milan-San Remo with a 0.25/10.0 stake EW (1/4 odds top 3) at 301.0 with Bet365.
Bet here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2017
