It was only two weeks ago that Henrik Stenson put on a masterclass to win The Open but there is no time to dwell on that as the final major of the year takes place this week when the golfing world descends on New Jersey for the USPGA Championship.
The competition has been moved forward a few weeks this year to accommodate the Olympics into the schedule and after a really heavy set of tournaments in the last couple of months it will be interesting to see if the top stars have one more big event in them or if this one will open up to the entire field.
Recent Winners
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Jason Dufner
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Keegan Bradley
2010 – Martin Kaymer
2009 – YE Yang
2008 – Padraig Harrington
2007 – Tiger Woods
2006 – Tiger Woods
The Course
Baltusrol Golf Club stages this tournament for the first time since 2005 when Phil Mickelson won a very tough event. The club has hosted seven US Open’s and that isn’t a surprise because it is a really tough course and as such I think we are set for a US Open type event here as opposed to the low scoring tournaments we usually get when the PGA of America deliver their showpiece event.
The reason for that is two fold. First of all the course is a par 70 unlike the usual par 72s used for this tournament so that means there are only two par 5s of which one is a genuine three shot hole for everyone in the field. The other reason is because the fairways are only of average width but the rough is very penal so we are definitely looking for accuracy over length despite the course measuring over 7,400 yards.
The course continually undergoes renovations and the latest one has shifted some bunkers to be placed more in play off the tee and they have all had sand added to them so plugged lies are going to be an issue all week especially in the many bunkers that guard the greens. Accuracy and clean ball striking is very much the way to go on a course which is expected to firm up in the conditions.
The Field
Apart from the likes of Tiger Woods, Ian Poulter and Davis Love III among a couple of others everyone who is anyone in the game of golf is here.
The field of 156 players include 20 club professionals and plenty of tournament winners both this season and years gone by. A number of former champions also tee it up this week including Sky Sports’ Rich Beem, winner of this tournament in 2002.
All three 2016 major winners so far are in the field this week and in keeping with the traditions of this tournament Danny Willett, Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson will be in each other’s company for the opening two rounds.
Market Leaders
The US Open champion Dustin Johnson is the 8/1 favourite to win a second major of the year and if he drives the ball like he did at Oakmont he won’t be getting beaten easily but these fairways are tighter than those were and that could be significant. Another week in contention in Canada last week should have tuned him up nicely so he’s a worthy favourite albeit a little short for me.
Rory McIlroy has been backed into second favourite at 9/1. While there is plenty of doom and gloom surrounding him at the minute it should be remembered that he has finished in the top 12 in all but one of his last nine starts including a win at the Irish Open. It should be said big final rounds are a reason for that and that has made leaderboards flatter him at times. He’s won this twice but he’s not for me here.
Jason Day is the third favourite at 10/1 but he is easy to back with rumours going around that he isn’t 100% physically. At his very best he’s a major runner to defend the title successfully but he hasn’t quite been on tip top form for a few weeks and on that evidence coupled with the sickness in the family he’s easy to pass over.
The Open champion Henrik Stenson and Jordan Spieth come next at 16/1. If Henrik drives the ball like he did at Troon he could lead this lot a merry dance but to contend again in the first tournament after such a career defining win at Troon would be a very tough task so on those grounds he is passed over. Jordan Spieth’s driver is letting him down, the course is likely to be too long and he isn’t putting as well as we know he can so he’s easy to avoid.
Phil Mickelson is a 22/1 shot to repeat his 2005 exploits while Sergio Garcia is slightly bigger at 25/1 and it is 35/1 bar those named above in what has the feel of a wide open tournament about it.
Main Bets
I’m going with two main bets this week. Both of which I took at The Open but that doesn’t surprise me as largely I took them at Troon based on their form and that was only two weeks ago and there isn’t a lot that has changed in that time.
Sergio Garcia was one of my main picks there and he is my main pick here. He finished in the top five in Scotland, one of three top five finishes since he won the Byron Nelson a couple of months ago and that includes the US Open as well so we know the Spaniard is in decent nick.
This course should set up well for him too with his solid striking from tee to green. There will always be doubts over Garcia’s putting but those doubts aren’t as strong at the minute as they have been at other times. He is actually holing his fair share and that is important. This won’t be a low scoring week so pars on the card will be good. His all-round game should ensure he isn’t far away on Sunday.
Matt Kuchar was another one of my picks for that tournament and he should go really well here. He never extends himself off the tee to sacrifice his monotonous accuracy and that is how you have to play this course. Positioning is key. Kuchar has been in the top 10 in six of his last eight starts including in Canada last week so he’s in great touch right now.
The American is fifth in par 4 scoring on the PGA Tour this season and with only two par 5s that is a stat that is significant so that combined with his tee to green game and his putting ability should make him a very strong runner throughout the four days.
Outsiders
There are some silly prices this week and plenty of men who generate plenty of interest at three figure prices so I’m going to give a few of them a go. Usually I’d just take one or two in this section but I’ve a feeling this could have a surprise winner this week so I’ll chance a couple more.
The first of those is my old favourite Steve Stricker. He might be pushing 50 but he isn’t showing that out on the golf course. He was in the top five in The Open a fortnight ago which was hot on the heels of a runner up finish in the St Jude Classic and with a couple of other top 10s on the season his form hasn’t dropped.
Stricker is also in that tie for fifth in par four scoring this year and he is never off the middle of the fairway. We all know if his long game gets him there he’ll gain plenty on the greens with his excellent putting. There is a fear this course could be a little long for him but his accuracy should temper that slightly and at 100/1 he’s worth a go here.
Shane Lowry has been in the business end of some big tournaments this year and that can stand him in good stead here. He was second in The Masters after the first round and inside the top 10 at halfway before fading and then in The Players he was right there too until some insane luck on the Saturday when the conditions got away from the control of the players but he bounced back by being the winner of the US Open all ends up until the Dustin Johnson controversy occurred.
That is all top class form to me and with him not going to the Olympics he can really focus on this week. Ryder Cup is a big thing for him so a big week here will do those hopes no harm. We know long courses aren’t a problem for him given he won at Firestone last year so all that together equates to him having every chance this week.
My next two picks are straight as a die in Francesco Molinari and Soren Kjeldsen. Molinari has been competitive on the PGA Tour this year with three top 10s including at Sawgrass which was firm and fiery like this week is expected to be. We know he won’t leave the fairways so if he can get the rock to roll with the putter he should perform well at an inflated price.
I’m really surprised to see Soren Kjeldsen the price he is. He specialises on tough courses and already has top 10 finishes at The Masters and The Open with the former being played on a course far too long for him. He was also in the top five on a tough track at Valderrama earlier in the year so the Dane is hitting it nicely.
At his best distance control is spot on for Kjeldsen but the ability to play every shot from the short grass shouldn’t be underestimated. He has been holing a lot more putts this season and he’s all set for another big tilt this week.
My final pick is a real shot in the dark but if winning form counts for anything then Jeunghun Wang is a crazy price. He has won twice on the European Tour this season and only a disaster of a final round denied him a third win in France earlier in the month. He is a solid ball striker with a lovely swing and a decent enough all round game to put a score up. He’s worth a nibble here.
Tips
Back S.Garcia to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Kuchar to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Stricker to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back F.Molinari to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Ladbrokes (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back S.Lowry to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back S.Kjeldsen to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back J.Wang to win USPGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 501.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
