Despite plenty of controversies in the lead up to the event, Wimbledon begins on Monday when those eligible for the tournament head to London for the third Grand Slam title of the year, the marquee competition of the grass court season.
Novak Djokovic won the men’s tournament last year and he is back to attempt to defend his title in what looks like being the final Grand Slam he will compete in during 2022. Despite the enforced absences a decent field will oppose him.
Recent Winners
2021 – Novak Djokovic
2019 – Novak Djokovic
2018 – Novak Djokovic
2017 – Roger Federer
2016 – Andy Murray
2015 – Novak Djokovic
2014 – Novak Djokovic
2013 – Andy Murray
2012 – Roger Federer
2011 – Novak Djokovic
The Format
We have the new Grand Slam structure in place in this tournament which means that we have a tiebreak in the final set. Each match is the best of five sets and if it reaches 6-6 in the deciding set then the match will be settled with a first to 10 point tiebreak which we saw for the first time at the French Open recently. The other change this year is that for the first time ever there will be play on the middle Sunday regardless of the weather so ‘Magic Monday’ is a thing of the past. The 128 players have been inserted into the draw bracket and the tournament is a straight knockout with the champion being decided on the second Sunday.
Top Quarter
Novak Djokovic actually looks to win this title for a fourth straight time this year. He hasn’t played any of the warm up competitions this year though so other than a hit in an exhibition last week he hasn’t been on the grass at all which will encourage the other seeds in his quarter a little more than might have normally been the case. Those other seeds include Carlos Alcaraz, who also has only played a couple of exhibitions on the grass this season, Miomir Kecmanovic, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Reilly Opelka, none of whom have done much on the green lawns this term, Jannik Sinner who lost his opener at Eastbourne, John Isner who hasn’t even played so much as an exhibition on the grass and Oscar Otte.
There is certainly nothing to fear in this section for the unseeded players in it with the exception of Djokovic and that will certainly be something Andy Murray is aware of as he heads up the unseeded players in this quarter. Stan Wawrinka is another in here. He goes in search of the only Grand Slam he hasn’t got his hands on. Other notables without a seeding to their name in this quarter are Fabio Fognini, Benoit Paire and one half of the Australian Open winning doubles pair, Thanasi Kokkinakis.
Second Quarter
The French Open finalist Casper Ruud is the highest seed in the second quarter of the draw this fortnight. The Norwegian lost in the first round at Queens and didn’t really impress much in two exhibitions since either so those seeded in this section will certainly fancy their chances of going deep. The biggest danger is likely to be the former semi-finalist Hubert Hurkacz, the Halle champion. The other six seeds in this section are Sebastian Baez who played Mallorca last week without much success, Frances Tiafoe who lost in the first round of both Queens and Eastbourne, Pablo Carreno Busta, Cameron Norrie who only has one win in three grass matches this summer, Grigor Dimitrov and Tommy Paul who made the last eight at Queens and in Eastbourne.
There are plenty of unseeded players in this section and one who has good memories of Wimbledon is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the former boys champion here. Jiri Vesely has had a good run here in the past while veterans Adrian Mannarino and Fernando Verdasco have the skills that transfer well onto grass. British wildcard Ryan Peniston has caught the eye over recent weeks while the enigmatic Alexander Bublik could be a danger. Ugo Humbert and David Goffin are also in this quarter.
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Third Quarter
The beaten finalist of a year ago, Matteo Berrettini, isn’t the highest seed in the third quarter but he will be the one expected to come out of it and is certainly the shortest price to do so. The Italian defended his Queens title two weeks ago and won in Stuttgart the week before that to confirm his status as a leading grass court player. Stefanos Tsitsipas is actually the highest seed in this section and his win in Mallorca last week will have boosted his confidence heading into this tournament. The other six seeds are Jenson Brooksby, who has one win in four matches on the grass this term, the Eastbourne semi-finalist Alex de Minaur, Diego Schwartzman who lost in the first round at Queens and Eastbourne, Denis Shapovalov who has lost his last six matches on all surfaces, the Mallorca finalist Roberto Bautista Agut and the Queens runner up Filip Krajinovic.
As with all the quarters, there is a standout unseeded player in this one and that comes in the form of Nick Kyrgios who has made the semi-finals in Stuttgart and Halle on the grass. British player Jack Draper took a set off Novak Djokovic here last year and reached the semis at Eastbourne last week. He’s another in this section while Zizou Bergs won the Challenger event at Ilkley and then beat Casper Ruud in an exhibition last week. He is also in this quarter.
Bottom Quarter
All eyes might be on the bottom quarter of the draw in this fortnight though because it is the area of it where Rafael Nadal will look to continue his quest for what would be an incredible calendar slam. With Novak Djokovic currently ineligible for the US Open, a Nadal win here would open the door for that amazing haul. Felix Auger-Aliassime is seeded to be his quarter final opponent. The other six seeds in this quarter are the former finalist Marin Cilic, Lorenzo Sonego, Queens semi-finalist Botic van de Zandschulp, Eastbourne champion Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune and the Nottingham champion Dan Evans.
This quarter might lack a standout name in the unseeded players but the Eastbourne finalist Maxime Cressy is here, as is the Ilkley runner-up Jack Sock. Lorenzo Musetti has a big game which should be suited to grass while Richard Gasquet might be in the latter stages of his career but he is no stranger to the second week at SW19. Former Queens champions Feliciano Lopez and Sam Querrey remain dangerous floaters in any draw on this surface.
Outright Betting
I’m keen to avoid Novak Djokovic this week so both my outright bets will come in the opposite half to him. The bottom quarter looks pretty tasty but the way Marin Cilic was hitting the ball in the French Open I think there is a good run in him this week. There has to be doubts over Rafael Nadal. He hasn’t won this tournament since 2010 and everyone knows he is struggling with a foot problem so it would take something special for him to be around at the business end of the tournament. Taylor Fritz could be a problem but Cilic wouldn’t face him until the quarter final and he’ll have had to take care of Felix Auger-Aliassime before then anyway. Cilic has the ideal game for grass and with the confidence of two outstanding results at the French Open and a decent enough spin to the last four at Queens I think he has a good run in him here.
Matteo Berrettini will be all the rage in the third quarter and that is absolutely fair enough but there is next to no value in the Italian now so I wonder if the former semi-finalist Roberto Bautista Agut is worth a play. He’s a monster price at 200/1 when you consider that so far on the grass he made the final of Mallorca last week which included a good win over Daniil Medvedev along the way. RBA made the fourth round here last year so he is an underrated grass court player who unlike so many in this field has got plenty of practice in on the surface in a competitive match environment. While facing Berrettini wouldn’t be ideal he won’t have to play him until the quarter final and the Italian might have bitten the dust by then. I’ll pay at the monster price.
Quarter Betting
The one man I wanted to avoid the top half of the draw is the Halle champion Hubert Hurkacz, the player who was beaten by Matteo Berrettini in the semi-final last year having wiped Roger Federer out in the quarter final and Daniil Medvedev in the round prior to that. Unfortunately he didn’t avoid the top half of the draw and I’d quite like a pay out on the Pole who has a brilliant game for grass so I’ll back him to win the second quarter.
I wouldn’t usually back someone at 7/4 to win a quarter which is effectively five matches but his hardest test might well be his opening one against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina because he is in a quarter where there isn’t much in the way of grass court pedigree. Not only have most of the seeds not shown comfort on grass, most of them haven’t been able to pick up any form on it this season. Hurkacz has and I think he stands out in the second quarter even at 7/4.
Tips
Back M.Cilic to win Wimbledon (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Bet365 (1/2 1-2)
Back R.Bautista Agut to win Wimbledon (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfred (1/2 1-2)
Back H.Hurkacz to win 2nd Quarter for a 3/10 stake at 2.75 with Coral
Back him here:
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