World Cup 2018 – Special Markets Betting Preview

Here we are on the eve of the World Cup finals which means there is one last chance to get our tournament outright bets portfolio enhanced with a look through the side markets, of which there are many for the tournament.

We’ve covered the outright market and the top scorer one and now it is time to look at the quirkier offerings, each of which still have plenty of value should you get the strategy correct.

Golden Ball (Player of the Tournament)

I was in two minds about whether to go into this market because I’ve had some horror near misses in it in the past with Andrea Pirlo not receiving it in Euro 2012 when he was by far the standout player in that tournament still annoying me to this day. James Rodriguez four years ago was another so maybe I’m just cursed in this market. Or maybe it owes me. I’m nothing if not a glutton for punishment though so here goes.

First of all it is important to understand how the winner is determined. A shortlist is drawn up by a FIFA technical committee and then members of the media select the winner from that list so really we might be looking for the best story rather than the best player.

With that in mind I’m going to look deeper down the market and take Kevin de Bruyne for my first bet. He was the leading assist maker in the Premier League last season and looks to be pivotal to the chances of success that Belgium may have in the tournament. While I think there will be a story behind the winner it will be statistics that get you on the initial shortlist and the Man City star has the game to get on there. If Belgium to prove triumphant that is a story in itself and if he has been key to their run he could well land the honour at 33/1.

I’m far from convinced that Spain do anything in this World Cup. That was a view I held before the sacking of Julen Lopetegui but if I’m wrong then Andres Iniesta has to be in with a shout. This is his swansong on the world stage and having burgled this award off Pirlo six years ago it would be apt if I win on him here. Iniesta remains a threat in the Spain side and there will be no bigger story than him playing a big role in his final international run. I don’t expect Spain to go well enough for him to be in the mix but at 33/1 I can afford myself a point just in case they do.

Highest Scoring Group

We now head to the markets where there is a little bit of strategy involved. The first of which is the highest scoring group which is simply which group will have the most goals in it? Eight groups in the field but we can eliminate a few purely on the quality of the defences in them. We are looking for a group which will be fairly routine and where teams are unlikely to tighten up.

I wouldn’t necessarily put anyone off Group C but I wonder if the final round of matches in it will be tense with all four sides potentially in with a chance of qualifying therefore I’m going with Group G. Belgium and England should cruise through this group and should fill their boots along the way and then come the final set of matches we should get some open football with two sides building for the knockout stage and two looking to showcase their talents in what could be their last match at this level for a while. I think this group is favourite for a reason and I’m happy to indulge.

Lowest Scoring Group

Having taken the highest scoring group we go full circle for the lowest scoring group where we basically want strong defences, weaker attacks and a tight group with the nerves and tension stifle the attacking play to least us with the goal which has the fewest goals.

Group H is the favourite with the layers here but I think this is a market which they have wrong. I actually fancy that to be an open group with some classy operators and a couple of defences which can be exposed and I wouldn’t be surprised if it pushes Group G for the highest scoring one.

I have three fancies here which are Groups A, B and E. I’m worried A will be tight initially given that it opens the competition and in behind Uruguay a right old bun fight could develop while if you take Brazil out of Group E you have three extremely solid defensive sides but ultimately Group B looks the one to me.

Portugal and Spain are the leading runners in the group but both of those have been known to start slowly in front of goal but both are defensively sound. Morocco have a wonderful defensive record going into the tournament while Iran don’t ship too many either. You look at this group and all four sides could struggle in front of goal and when you think Spain vs Portugal is a fixture in the first round of games I think this could turn into a tight and tense group. I’ll side with them to be the lowest scoring group.

Highest Scoring Team

Common logic would dictate that we are looking for a team to make the final when we come to the highest scoring team but when you think there hasn’t been a single goal in 90 minutes in a final since 2006 that logic could be flawed.

Indeed over time the knockout stages are usually much lower scoring than the group stages so while we don’t want a side who will go out in the groups we do want a side who will fill their boots in the initial phase and with that in mind I can look no further than Belgium.

In Panama, Belgium have the worst team in the competition first up and while Tunisia may have a go they can be exposed at the back, as can England. With someone from Group H to follow in the last 16 the Red Devils have a real chance of four high scoring matches. Things will naturally tighten up after that but no side looks to run into as many open defences in the early stages as Belgium and at 10/1 they look a fair price too.

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Lowest Scoring Team

This actually looks to be one of the more competitive markets in the entire World Cup. The obvious starting point in this market is to take teams who will go out of the group stage. The more matches a team plays equates to the more chance of them scoring.

Panama are the favourites for the market along with Saudi Arabia but thinking slightly outside the box could lead us in a different direction. Panama’s final match is against Tunisia and with this possibly being their final World Cup match for a good while they should come and have a go while Saudi Arabia face three sides below the elite.

I think value lies in two teams here. The first of those are Iran, who while they might have a go they are in a group where they are not going to see much of the ball and in truth they lack that natural goalscorer who you can rely on to be composed when the big opportunities come along. It could very well be that they exit the competition without scoring. Another side who could go early and struggle to find the net are Switzerland.

The Swiss have built a successful period on the back of a solid defence but with that comes with a struggle in front of goal. The likes of Josip Drmic, Haris Seferovic and Breel Embolo all struggle in front of goal. Zherdan Shaqiri may be their main source of goals but how much he will see of the ball is open to debate. It is no certainty that Switzerland fail in the first round but if they do, the defences of Brazil, Costa Rica and Serbia could keep their scoring to a minimum.

Tips

Back K.de Bruyne – Golden Ball Winner for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with BetVictor

WON – Back Belgium Highest Scoring Team for a 2/10 stake at 11.00 with BetVictor

Back them here:

Back A.Iniesta – Golden Ball Winner for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Ladbrokes

WON – Back Group G Highest Scoring Group for a 2/10 stake at 4.75 with Ladbrokes

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Back Group B Lowest Scoring Group for a 2/10 stake at 7.00 with Skybet

Back it here:

DEAD HEAT – Back Iran Lowest Scoring Team for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Betfair

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Back Switzerland Lowest Scoring Team for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with William Hill

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