The European Tour makes the short trip from Spain to Portugal this week for the Portugal Masters, the latest attempt to get keep the campaign running. We’ve seen plenty of good golf since the restart and there is no reason to expect anything different here.
Steven Brown pulled off a major shock to win his maiden European Tour title here last year and he is back looking to defend the title. It has to be said that it isn’t the greatest field ever that opposes him, which will give him plenty of confidence.
Recent Winners
2019 – Steven Brown
2018 – Tom Lewis
2017 – Lucas Bjerregaard
2016 – Padraig Harrington
2015 – Andy Sullivan
2014 – Alexander Levy
2013 – David Lynn
2012 – Shane Lowry
2011 – Tom Lewis
2010 – Richard Green
The Course
We are back at the Dom Pedro Victoria Course in Vilamoura this week. This is a resort track which is a par 71 playing to a full yardage of 7,191 yards. It certainly isn’t a long track but as we saw in the UK Swing tournaments that were held on the resort tracks, this is a place that suits the longer hitters and aggressive players. Scoring is always low in this tournament so when selecting bets you need to be looking for players who will be playing front foot golf.
The fairways are pretty wide here and the greens are on the bigger side so this does tend to come down to a short game and putting contest so those who can attack the flags with shorter irons certainly have an advantage. The weather in this part of the world is rarely a problem either. The one thing to note is that in the main although this is a resort track, it does tend to produce a classy winner in the main.
The Field
It isn’t the greatest field in the world but it would have been foolish to have expected it to be the week after the PGA Tour season ends and the week before the US Open takes place. To be fair to the organisers though they have managed to secure a big name to headline the week in the former European number one Tommy Fleetwood. He will look to head to New York next week with a title under his belt.
Of the rest, there is a strong South African contingent in the field led by George Coetzee who has a decent record around here, as well as Brandon Stone and Wilco Nienaber. There is a further international flavour brought to proceedings by Haotong Li and Ryan Fox and continental Europe are led by Jorge Campillo, Marcus Kinhult and Joost Luiten. Paul Waring, Jordan Smith and Jamie Donaldson are among the British challengers looking to win the title.
Market Leaders
As you would expect given that he is the class act in the field, Tommy Fleetwood is an 11/2 favourite to win this week. The first thing to consider is whether he is here to win or to work on his game ahead of next week. If it is the latter then you probably wouldn’t want to be on him as a restricted price. The other thing to consider is that although he is the standout name in the field, he hasn’t been in the best of form since lockdown so that might bring the field more into play. He isn’t for me here.
George Coetzee is a well supported second favourite to win the tournament at 15/1. He has a fair record around here with five top 20 finishes but he is yet to win the title. There is no doubting that his skillset matches the test this week but even in this field he looks like a pretty short price although he is primed for a good week off the back of a second and a first in the last two weeks on the Sunshine Tour. He has made no secret of his love of this course so those who are happy betting at 15/1 there is more than enough to like about him.
There are a trio of players at 25/1. They are Haotong Li, Ryan Fox and Wilco Nienaber. I’ll come on to the latter later but of the other two Haotong Li has a pretty mixed record around here for someone of his quality while Ryan Fox has a lot of solid efforts without really threatening the title. It might be that the weaker field than usual brings them nearer the top of the leaderboard, but that would have to happen based on previous evidence.
There are another trio of players who are 28/1 in the betting here. They are Jorge Campillo, who I’m a little reluctant to back after he was in contention for me at Valderrama after 25 holes last week then faded fast, Marcus Kinhult and Joost Luiten. I never like Luiten as much on these low scoring tracks. I think he’s better on tighter courses where his tee to green strength is an advantage. Kinhult is more interesting of the trio but I’d say he is acceptably priced and nothing else really.
Main Bets
I’m still getting over the fact I didn’t collect on a South African in this event last season but I’m going with another one this year, although I still can’t bring myself to back Brandon Stone! The player in question is Wilco Nienaber who should have plenty of tools for this test. Nienaber is a huge hitter off the tee and that is already a major box ticked but the rest of his game, while not as good perhaps, is certainly in good order. He had a top 10 in the low scoring event at Hanbury Manor on the UK Swing and went fairly well in the first week at Celtic Manor and then last week he shot three very creditable rounds at Valderrama and if you can perform on that golf course you can do so anywhere. It feels like he is a winner in waiting and this course might well offer him the chance to do exactly that.
I took Chris Paisley here last year and he came fifth in a stronger field so it makes sense to take him again this week. The reason why I like him here is because he is the best putter on the European Tour in terms of putts per GIR and the rest of his short game isn’t a million miles behind it has to be said. There is no pressure off the tee here so it is all about getting the ball to the green and then doing his thing and with form figures of 5-12-5 here that is clearly something he does pretty well. Paisley heads here off the back of a top 10 in the Hero Open at the Forest of Arden and shot -13 at Hanbury Manor the following week. He looks in decent shape with his game and on a course that seems to really suit he should go well here once again.
Outsiders
I’ll go with three outsiders for the tournament as well with the first of those being the man who loves this course after the emotional scenes when he retained his Tour card in dramatic and emotional fashion back in 2013. That is Justin Walters a player who backed up that display in Portugal by finishing second to Steven Brown here last year. Walters clearly loves the course and it is clearly special to him so he’ll be eager to win here. Walters arrives in Portugal in decent form and probably should have arrived on the Algarve as a tournament winner this year when he lost out in a play-off to Rasmus Hojgaard at The Belfry a couple of weeks ago. Walters has the aggressive game for this track and given the form he appears to be in he looks well worth a bet at 70/1.
Oliver Fisher probably didn’t have the UK Swing that he would have liked but there was one week in it where he scored well which was at Hanbury Manor where Andy Sullivan won and there are similarities with that course and this one so I’m inclined to take a chance on the Englishman here. Of course we know all too well that he can score on this course because he broke history a couple of years ago when he shot the first ever 59 on the European Tour here. You have to score low to win this so that knowledge is very much an advantage. Fisher tends to play better where the long game isn’t under as much scrutiny so I’ll pay to see a good performance from him here.
The last player who caught my eye at Valderrama last week and who has a decent record here is Adrian Saddier. Saddier has form figures of 16-4 in the last two seasons so there is something about the Algarve that he seems to enjoy. Halfway through the second round at Valderrama last week he was right there but then the course ate him up like it did most. I’m not going to hold that against him but you don’t score well around there for 30 or so holes if you are not hitting the ball well. That coupled with his form here makes me think he is worth chancing here.
Tips
Back W.Nienaber to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back C.Paisley to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back J.Walters to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back O.Fisher to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Saddier to win Portugal Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
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