The first singles Grand Slam title of the year will be won on Saturday when Ash Barty takes on Danielle Collins in the final of the women’s Australian Open inside the Rod Laver Arena on what could be a history making day.
Barty will be looking to be the first home winner of this tournament in 44 years so she carries plenty of expectation on her shoulders in this final. Collins is in her first Grand Slam final and will be looking to make the most of it.
Ash Barty
I think many people had Ash Barty down as their favourite to win the tournament before the ball was hit such is the way she has started the year but given the expectation and pressure on her shoulders I’m not so sure anyone would have expected her to make the final without dropping a set and losing just 21 games in her six matches. To say she has dominated the field thus far is something of an understatement and surely only nerves and the weight of expectation deny her winning the title.
It isn’t like the draw has opened up massively for Barty either. Although she hasn’t had to play the elite names in this tournament the likes of Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys were all in good form heading into their respective contests with the world number one and they were all blown away. Barty has only dropped her serve once in the whole tournament and in conditions which suit she is entitle to take a lot of beating here.
Danielle Collins
When you consider it is less than a year ago that Danielle Collins underwent major surgery, for her to be through to this final is a massive achievement in itself. To have a shot at winning it is amazing and it might be that she is able to play with a bit of freedom in this final because surely in her wildest dreams she couldn’t have expected to be in this position so soon. She has shown heart, fight, determination and no shortage of quality in getting to this final.
Collins certainly hasn’t had an easy path to this final. She has had to overcome the challenges of Elise Mertens and Iga Swiatek among others to make it here. If you wouldn’t to criticise here then you could argue that Swiatek was cream crackered when they met but Collins has been getting better the longer the tournament has gone on and if she has saved an ounce of improvement for this final she’s entitled to be the closest challenger to Barty.
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Head to Head
These two women have met on four previous occasions and it is Ash Barty who holds a 3-1 lead but Collins will know she won their last meeting which was in Adelaide last year. They are 1-1 on a hard court so there isn’t too much in the way of an advantage there. This will be their second Grand Slam contest after Barty took care of Collins in the French Open in 2019. This will be the first time the two ladies have met in a final of any kind so there is a little bit of unknown territory in that regard.
Betting
To be fair to Danielle Collins, on a hard court she has beaten Barty and gone down in a final set tiebreak in their two outings on this surface so that should give her plenty of confidence but Barty looks insanely good at the minute and it is hard to oppose her. Admittedly she is battling history and expectation and things like that in this final but listening to her in her press conferences this week she knows all that and it doesn’t seem to have bothered her.
The problem with all that is that the bookmakers are acutely aware of it so we’re going to have to get jiggy to get anything out of a comfortable Barty win. The handicap is 4.5 games but I always say to be careful taking that because if Collins serves first then Barty will need three unanswered breaks rather than two so that isn’t really an option I like. That makes me think the better bet is under 20.5 games. That gives us a couple of outs which the handicap doesn’t such as the 6-4 6-4 score which is a possibility if Collins serves first. Given that Barty has only dropped her serve once all tournament and that only one set of the 12 she has played as gone as far as 10 games the under in a straightforward Barty win appeals but gives us an out should the less likely occurrence of nerves taking her over and Collins prevails happen.
Tips
Back Under 20.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
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