NFL – Week 16 Saturday DFS Fantasy Breakdown

There are some huge cash prizes available playing DFS Fantasy Football on Saturday with some juicy pre-Xmas bonuses on offer for very little expense. Usually the big fantasy prizes are on a Sunday but with the bulk of the matches in the NFL on Saturday this week those prizes are up for grabs on Christmas Eve this week.

Here is our guide to the players you should and shouldn’t pick in your teams to try and win the big prizes on Saturday.

Quarterbacks

PICK – Philip Rivers (San Diego) $6,900

It is fair to say Philip Rivers’ output hasn’t been to the level we would like recently for when we are forking out this price but he is playing the Cleveland Browns this week and they are a relief for any struggling opposing quarterback. They have given up touchdowns to QBs regularly and that isn’t likely to end this week.

PICK – Cam Newton (Carolina) $6,600

Cam Newton’s struggles this season have been well documented but he faces an Atlanta side who he’ll know all about and who have lost their secondary and are giving up points galore to opposing quarterbacks. That isn’t going to change here so get last season’s MVP in your teams this week.

AVOID – Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) $6,700

Aaron Rodgers isn’t fit and he faces a defence who are as good as it comes in the NFL in a massive match for both sides. Earlier in the season he failed to score 20pts and with Green Bay finally establishing something of a run game he may not be scoring many more here.

AVOID – Andy Dalton (Cincinnati) $5,300

Andy Dalton is losing players to pass to left right and centre at the minute. There was talk that AJ Green would return for this match but that looks unlikely now and the Bengals have ruled Tyler Eifert out of the late game as well. Against a crack hot defence like Houston’s can be this isn’t the week to take the ginger passer.

Running Backs

PICK – Todd Gurley (LA Rams) $6,500

It is well known that Todd Gurley has had an awful season but he comes up against the worst run defence in the league who keep on surrendering yardage at an unbelievable rate. With Fisher gone the Rams can’t just see out the season so expect their outspoken back to put up some decent numbers here.

PICK – Bilal Powell (NY Jets) $6,000

Matt Forte looks like he is going to be ruled out of the match with the Patriots completely so Bilal Powell should see plenty of the ball. With the quarterback issues the Jets have passing is likely to be hit and miss so Powell should get plenty of carries which in turn should come plenty of yards.

PICK – Jay Ajayi (Miami) $5,600

While you would be correct to point out that Ajayi’s output has lessened over the last few weeks it should be remembered that in the first match Miami had against the Bills this season Ajayi rushed for over 200 yards. He probably won’t run for that number again it but it does show he has the beating of this defence and we’re expecting a big night from the Miami back.

PICK – Rob Kelley (Washington) $5,200

Ty Montgomery just churned up this Chicago defence so you’ve got to think that Kelley will too. Even if he doesn’t get tons of yards Kirk Cousins is going well enough to get the Redskins into the red zone often enough where Kelley can apply the coup de grace. I’m expecting this to be a high scoring game and Kelley can be a major part of that.

AVOID – Mark Ingram (New Orleans) $4,400

Tampa Bay’s defence kept Ezekiel Elliott quiet until the fourth quarter last week and Ingram is nothing like as potent as the Dallas back. With Tampa likely to be ahead throughout the match you would think the ball is going to spend a fair amount of time in the hands of Drew Brees and with minimal gain expected from Ingram he’s not for us.

AVOID – TJ Yeldon (Jacksonville) $3,800

The change in coach in Jagwar land might see about a change in fortune but I don’t think their gains will come on the ground against a pretty tight Tennessee run defence. You would think the play book will be opened up for this match but I don’t think that includes many carries for Yeldon.

Wide Receivers

PICK – TY Hilton (Indianapolis) $7,800

If we ignore last week which was a freaky sort of game against a decent pass defence TY Hilton is in excellent form and this week he goes up against an Oakland side who I believe aren’t as good in the backfield as they are making out to be. Hilton is very much Luck’s main man at the minute and we should get nicely rewarded for shelling out this cash.

PICK – Taylor Gabriel (Atlanta) $6,200

With Julio Jones struggling for fitness it could be that Gabriell goes off again. I can’t see any way their match with Carolina isn’t high scoring and I don’t see how Matt Ryan doesn’t go mad on this defence so with that in mind Gabriel’s scoring potential looks to be on the high side here.

PICK – Dontrelle Inman (San Diego) $6,000

Inman has been on our radar for a few weeks now. We’ve included him a couple of times and been suitably rewarded for it and against a Cleveland Browns defence for which useless isn’t the word we’re expecting big numbers from him again. He’s an obvious pick but sometimes the obvious picks bump up the scoring.

PICK – Malcolm Mitchell (New England) $5,200

Before last week Malcolm Mitchell was a focal part of this Patriots offense given all the injuries they have. Last week was against a gun Denver defence but this week they are up against a Jets defence who packed it in weeks ago and have given up more deep balls than you could ever imagine. Brady is trying to utilise Mitchell a fair bit and I’m expecting his scoring to return to the double figures of the three weeks prior to last week.

AVOID – Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) $6,100

Not many receivers get much joy out of this Seattle defence and I’m not expecting Fitzgerald to be any different. Richard Sherman is likely to be on the veteran receiver for the most part so expect Carson Palmer to use plenty of check downs to the running backs and bring the other receivers into play.

AVOID – Brandon Marshall (NY Jets) $5,300

Marshall is questionable for this match but all the signs are he will play but it is Robby Anderson who seems to be getting the majority of the bigger plays for the Jets at the minute so the potential for Marshall to go well has to be quite limited. With that in mind I’ll pass him over this week.

Tight Ends

PICK – Greg Olsen (Carolina) $5,200

Greg Olsen got back to the man we know in the win over Washington last week and he should feast on a weak Atlanta pass defence here too. He racked up over 20pts when these two met earlier in the season and that was without having that big an impact on the match. His influence should be larger on this one and he looks an obvious pick here.

PICK – Cameron Brate (Tampa Bay) $3,900

Cameron Brate is improving all the time in the NFL and with New Orleans regularly surrendering yards I’m expecting Jameis Winston to find his tight end a few times here. Brate has shown good catching ability and his yards after the catch is improving too. I’m expecting big numbers from him.

AVOID – Jimmy Graham (Seattle) $4,500

Graham is a big name but there might not be a big game in him here. Arizona are very solid against tight ends and so Russell Wilson might need to use someone else to get the Seahawks down the field here. Others offer much better potential than Graham this week.

Defences

PICK – New England Patriots $3,600

This is a fairly logical selection. The Jets offense has been an accident waiting to happen all season and I’m not expecting any different here. Belichick is a master of shutting down the main man of the opposition and the Jets aren’t blessed with go to men. Scoring for the Jets’ offense is likely to be low and the chance of a turnover or two is high.

PICK – San Diego Chargers $3,400

Another easy choice. The Cleveland Browns have been terrible all year so I’m expecting the Chargers to ramp up the points on defence here.

AVOID – Buffalo Bills $3,100

Miami are in good form at the minute and with their need to win they are going to be giving their all on offense. The Bills were gashed by Ajayi in the reverse meeting and the running back could lead his side to a hefty points total here.


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