Thursday at Royal Ascot is always one of the best days of the entire meeting and that is no different this week as another top class day of racing awaits us, one with a Group 1 which is the richest race of the week, a Group 3 and a couple of tasty Listed offerings on the card.
We absolutely smashed it with our selections on Wednesday with four winners at more than acceptable prices, two at 12/1, one at 8/1 and another at 13/2 and we’re hoping for much more of the same on Thursday.
1.50 Royal Ascot
Favourites
The Wolferton is always a good heat & should probably rank higher than its Listed ranking & this year is no exception. 16 go to post for this mile and a quarter race. Fox Tal is a lightly raced type from the Andrew Balding yard, having run just 6 times. After 4 runs at 2, he was seen just twice last year winning his first in an average conditions event at Doncaster. He’s priced up though on his 4th of 9 in the Champion Stakes behind Magical, Addeybb & Deirdre but he might need similar deep ground to show his best.
Contenders
Sir Dragonet was only 5th in the Derby last year when going off favourite & was winless thereafter, including 2 runs over this trip in similar company. John Gosden has a good record in this race & runs 2, the first of which is Dubai Warrior who carries top weight having got himself a 5lb penalty for a Group 3 win. All his best form is on the all weather & he looks the stable’s 2nd string on jockey bookings.
Betting
Like Gosden, we are going double handed in the race starting with his other runner, Crossed Baton. He has a 3lb penalty for winning a Listed event on the all weather by 2 lengths last time out. That was a really taking performance as he won going away & it rates even better given the problems he had last year with that being only his 3rd start of the year.
As a 3 year old, he was thought good enough to run in the Dante (went off at odds of 7/1 so well fancied) & his best run of the campaign was when 2nd to Hunting Horn in the Hampton Court over this course & distance. The key to him could be this stiffer track as the Lingfield’s & Epsom’s of the world, where he’s mainly raced recently, don’t suit his style of running.
First time cheekpieces did the trick last time out & they are back on here. With his stablemate there to ensure a good honest pace, he’s a good each way shot at rewarding odds.
At a shorter price, Regal Reality must surely go close. He’s the highest rated in the field by 3lbs & whilst he’s winner of just 3 of his 11 starts, he’s been running in this highest grade. His last 6 defeats have been in either Group 1 or Group 2 company & he’s not been unfancied in any of those, in fact he’s gone off in single figures on 5 of the 6 occasions.
Last year, he won the Brigadier Gerard as easy as you like before finishing less than 3 lengths behind the mighty Enable in the Coral Eclipse; that is top class form. He’d have been favourite for this had it not been for his last run when behind Magical & today’s favourite, Fox Tal, in the Champion Stakes but a change of tactics where he made the running were all wrong.
He has a tendency to get over excited in the preliminaries so the gelding operation he’s had might bring about further improvement. There’s plenty in his favour here and, provided he doesn’t try to lead them, he’ll almost certainly be in the shake up.
Tips
Back Crossed Baton (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 12.00 William Hill BOG (1/5 odds 1-4)
Back it here:
Back Regal Reality (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 BetVictor BOG (1/5 odds 1-4)
Back it here:
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2.25 Royal Ascot
Favourites
The Jersey Stakes is a 3 year old contest run on the straight track and the key here may be the draw, with evidence suggesting a high draw is a big advantage. There are 16 in the race which is enough for the draw to play its part. King Leonidas is drawn in 15 for Gosden & Dettori, and he could be hard to beat. He’s won 2 from 2, winning both in good style including last time when giving 7lbs to the field. The only slight doubt is inexperience.
Contenders
Molatham beat 2000 Guineas runner up Wichita 2 starts ago so brings rock solid form to the table but his draw in 5 is a worry. Monarch Of Egypt has been running in Group 1’s so this is easier but he’s fully exposed and hasn’t fared much better with the draw, coming from stall 6. French raider Celestin is interesting and would probably have been the bet but for the draw in 2.
Betting
Final Song, from the Bin Suroor yard & ridden by William Buick, is the one taken to give the favourite most to do. She’s the only filly in the field and gets 3lbs off her rivals. She had 4 runs in the Middle East over the winter, winning a Guineas trial over 7 furlongs, losing out by a neck in her other 7 furlong start & then twice 3rd over a furlong further.
That said she’s not a miler so it was a good sign she ran 4th (only a length off 2nd) to Love in the 1000 Guineas. In fact, she made her challenge before fading inside the final furlong so this step back in trip is a positive. She has course form too after winning here on debut by 5 lengths, backed up next time out by a 3rd of 25 in the Queen Mary.
With a top jockey on board, course form, a good draw, no fitness issues and a drop in trip all in her favour, she’s the best but, with the potential of the favourite, a bet without King Leonidas has also been added.
Tips
Back Final Song (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 11.00 Skybet BOG (1/5 odds 1-5)
Back Final Song (e/w) in the ‘without King Leonidas’ market for a 0.75/10 stake at 9.50 Bet365 (1/5 odds 1-3)
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3.00 Royal Ascot
Favourites
A disappointing turnout of 2 year olds for the Chesham over 7 furlongs with just 8 going to post. Every one of the runners has had just 1 runner with Aiden O’Brien saddling the favourite with Battleground who was only 5th on debut. He should improve for the step up in trip but will need to. Modern News won on Guineas day over 6 furlongs & he’s fancied to beat the favourite here.
Contenders
3 of this field finished behind Devious Company at Haydock on debut with Golden Flame the best of those in 2nd. Bright Devil is another to win on debut but comments of ‘made all’ at Newmarket this term suggest the performance could be overrated because of the well touted pace bias.
Betting
The bet is First Prophet who looked really impressive on debut in a straight track race at Newbury over this trip. He travelled really well, was going best of all 2 furlongs out & despite showing signs of greenness, quickened up in fine style to win easily by almost 2 lengths (a further 3 lengths back to 3rd).
Breeding suggests he’ll need further in time so whilst the trip doesn’t change, the move to a stiffer track in Ascot could bring about improvement. With his combination of stamina (in breeding) & turn of foot (displayed on debut), he could be the one here & he’s aided by being drawn closest to the rail. James Doyle again takes the ride and comes here in confident fashion after his double on Day 2.
Tips
Back First Prophet (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 8.50 Coral BOG (1/5 odds 1-3)
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3.35 Royal Ascot
The highlight on the card is the Group 1 Gold Cup over 2 and a half miles but it isn’t a betting race. With a bare 8 in the field & the hotpot, Champion Stayer & winner of this for the last 2 years, Stradivarius, in the field, a watching brief is advised.
His nearest rival on ratings is Cross Counter but he has 4lbs to find & a bigger danger could be Technician if the rain arrives. The likelihood, however, is that the favourite will be successful in his hat trick bid.
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