The attention turns back to Group D of the Rugby League World Cup on Monday evening when Tonga will look to put at least one foot into the quarter finals when they take on Wales at the Totally Wicked Stadium in St Helens.
Tonga just about got their campaign underway with a win last week and a second one here will all but ensure they progress to the knockout stages. Wales came agonisingly close to drawing their opening game and have to win here to stay alive.
Where to watch
The match will be shown live and in full on the BBC Two channel with the build-up in St Helens beginning at 7pm and the kick off coming along at 7.30pm.
Tonga
When assessing the sides in this tournament a lot of people, myself included, expected Tonga to do a lot of damage in the competition. I think it is fair to say we all expected a lot more than we got from the Tongans last week, but to be fair to them England were probably the only big gun in the event who looked the business straight off the bat. All of the others have come to the party this week though and we should expect Tonga to do similar.
One of the reasons why Tonga are fancied as much as they are is the power and skill they possess in their forward pack but it was largely the quality of their backs that squeezed them to victory against a spirited Papua New Guinea side last week. Those forwards will be licking their lips at going up against a Welsh pack who did a lot of defending in the second half last week. There should be plenty of natural improvement in Tonga here.
Wales
I think most people looked at this group and expected Wales to be the whipping boys in it. Clearly nobody inside their camp had those thoughts because they gave it everything they had in their opener against the Cook Islands last week and so nearly got something from the game, which in the main their efforts deserved. Wales played smart footy in that game and they will need to do that and some if they are to contain this powerful Tongan side.
The immediate problem that Wales have as the weakest team in the group is the short turnaround. They have only had five days since that intense match with the Cook Islands so it wouldn’t be a complete shock if they labour a little the longer this one goes on. If they can play clever, kick behind the full-back and the wingers and slow the forwards down a touch then Wales could put Tonga under pressure but in reality they are playing this one for pride of performance.
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Team News
Tonga coach Kristian Wolff has St Helens centre Konrad Hurrell back for this match on his home Super League ground. He will be missing Will Hopoate though as he is still injured. His captain, Jason Taumalolo, remains suspended.
Wales coach John Kear probably had no other choice but to make a few changes to his squad if only to freshen everything up a little. He has made four with Gavin Bennion, James Olds, Luke Thomas and Kyle Evans coming in for Will Evans, Mike Butt, Rhodri Lloyd and Ben Evans.
Betting
We know Wales will give their all here and there is every chance that will be enough to cover a 46 point start here. One thing we know about this Wales side is they are not going to be like a Greece or a Jamaica and be completely out of their depth. They are comfortably the second favourites in this match but if they were to go over the whitewash even just once then Tonga will have to put 50 points up on them and I think Wales can be smart enough to keep the Tongans at bay long enough for that not to cover.
Tonga will be a little more worried about their defence last week rather than their attack so I wouldn’t be surprised if Kristian Wolff was focusing on that in training this week rather than ripping Wales apart. He will want his side peaking for a potential quarter final with Samoa rather than for this match. Wales will be committed and they might even look to make it a messy game and while I expect Tonga to run out winners, to cover 46 points feels like a big ask.
Tips
Back Wales (+46) to beat Tonga for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Coral
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