The final set of league matches in The Hundred gets underway on Monday evening when the top side host the bottom team at Trent Bridge as the Trent Rockets welcome the Welsh Fire to Nottingham for what is a big game for the home side.
A win for the Trent Rockets will send them through to the finals and possibly straight into the final. Defeat and they will have an anxious 48 hour wait to see if they make it through. The Welsh Fire have been out of contention for a while.
Trent Rockets
The Trent Rockets looked to be cruising towards the final but they came unstuck in their last match when for the first time in the tournament their bowling completely fell apart. They didn’t have conditions to suit at the Ageas Bowl as a heavy dew had fallen onto the ground and they were playing a Southern Brave side who had no competitive pressure applying the shackles to them but the Rockets will still be disappointed to give up a decent position in that match.
At one stage Southern Brave needed 79 from 40 balls but they got home with five balls remaining to halt the charge of the Rockets. It goes without saying their bowlers will need to respond here, not necessarily to win this match, but to provide them with peace of mind when it comes to the knockout stages of the competition should they get there. Their batters have done a good job in the tournament though and that doesn’t look like changing.
Welsh Fire
This has been a pathetic season for the Welsh Fire and their net run rate of -1.427 after seven matches says everything that needs to be said about it. They have played seven matches and lost them all so if there is any professional pride in them then you would imagine they will be out to give their all here and make sure they don’t end the season without a win. Whatever happens there is going to be repercussions in the close season but at least they’ll have something to take away from a dismal tournament if they do win here.
If they are going to win here then they simply need a couple of batters to stand up and be counted. Their best batter is on his home ground here and conditions at Trent Bridge are usually excellent for batting so that should help the Welsh Fire batters but too many of them are woefully short of form. To their credit they have plugged away with the ball but it has been difficult for their bowlers when they have had nothing to work with in terms of scoreboard pressure.
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Key Players
This match could be as good as over if Alex Hales catches fire at the top of the order. Whether the Trent Rockets post a score or chase one he could soon overwhelm anything the Welsh Fire are capable of if he gets stuck into the bowling.
Ben Duckett has been the only real bright note to come out of the competition for the Welsh Fire. He is on his home ground here so he will be looking to use familiarity to his advantage and finish the campaign with another good score.
Betting
I’ll load up the bets for this match because one of the benefits of the Welsh Fire stinking the place out in this tournament is that some of their player lines are incredibly low. One of those is the run line of Ben Duckett which is 19.5 runs. I highlighted earlier in the tournament that Duckett is in excellent form this summer and although ironically he didn’t cover his line in that particular match he has reached 20 in three of his last four innings. Form is one reason to like him but another is that he is on his home ground here and apart from Tabraiz Shamsi who probably won’t bowl until later in the innings, any other spinners for the Trent Rockets play for Nottinghamshire so Duckett will have seen plenty of them in the nets. I continually mention about left-handers going well at Trent Bridge with the ground dimensions and Duckett can do likewise here.
Another player who has a low line is Matt Critchley with his performance. His performance line is 23.5 which is staggeringly low for a player who produces in all three components of the game. One area of concern is that Josh Cobb is a bang ordinary captain and doesn’t use him to the best of his abilities but Critchley should bat in the middle order and is a very good batter, he should bowl 20 balls of leg spin which he does very well too and he is pretty tall and relatively athletic as a fielder so will field in the key positions. He doesn’t even need an average game to get himself up to 24 points but with Trent Rockets regularly losing wickets to spin in this competition and them potentially having to go after someone in this side which might be Critchley, as well as his batting potential, I like the Essex man to cover here.
Finally it is hard to ignore the 14/1 on Leus du Plooy top scoring for the Welsh Fire. The danger is that Duckett gets in and goes big but if he doesn’t or if he only just covers that run line I’ve suggested then the Derbyshire man could be the one to capitalise on that. I keep mentioning about left-handers here and du Plooy ticks that box. He also ticks the form box which not many Welsh Fire ones do. His three innings in this tournament have been 37, 30 and 21*. The first effort was enough to top score while the other two saw him come in second to Ben Duckett. If Duckett fails du Plooy is hitting the ball well enough to take advantage. He spanked 35 in 22 balls here for Derbyshire earlier in the summer and will have faced most of the bowlers in the Blast. That 14/1 is way too big.
Tips
Back B.Duckett – Over 19.5 runs for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with BetVictor
Back him here:
Back M.Critchley’s Performance – Over 23.5pts for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Bet365
Back L.du Plooy Top Welsh Fire Batter for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Betfair
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