Giro d’Italia Stage 12 will be a lot different to yesterdays stage. There are no hills at all. There will be a breakaway but there won’t be late attacks and the stage will end with a bunch sprint.
The Route
As you can see by the profile – the stage is flat as a pancake. I’m not sure I’ve seen a 180kms Grand Tour stage outside of The Netherlands that is this devoid of ups and downs.
So what will happen? As per the norm in stage racing there will a lot of early attacks to try and set up a break. A group of riders will escape and build a 7+ minute lead BUT they have no chance of winning.
The sprinters have been marginalised because of the terrain for the last handful of stages. There is no way that their teams will pass up this opportunity for victory. Stage 13 on Friday is back into the mountains so this is the last chance for a few days for teams like Lotto Soudal to challenge for a stage win. Expect them and the other sprint teams to control the race and a bunch sprint to decided the winner.
The GC riders will want to remain safe in the peloton and save some energy for the mountain stages ahead. I don;t expect to see any changes in the top 10, barring accidents.
The Sprinters
The strong favourite for Stage 12 honours, especially in the absence of Marcel Kittel is Andre Greipel. He has shown how quick he is with two impressive sprint wins already in this years race. I was super impressed with him yesterday driving the front group into the main climb of the today with a stunning display of power. It is hard to see anyone else winning today.
Giacomo Nizzolo has been there or there abouts in most stages and is a great shout to win the overall Red Jersey. He seems to be improving each day and is quick but not quite Greipel-quick. I think he and the rest of the sprinters are fighting for 2nd place today.
Arnaud Demarre was involved in a big crash yesterday along with almost his entire FDJ team. Has he recovered is ‘the big question’ (homage to Sean Kelly). I don’t see him threatening Greipel on this type of finish.
Only one bet from me today.
Giro d’Italia Stage 12 Tips
WON – Back Andre Greipel to win Stage 12 with a 2.5/10 stake at 2.10 with Betfair.
Back him here:
