For the first time in two years a singles title will be won on Centre Court on Saturday when the ladies final of Wimbledon 2021 gets played out as the world number one Ash Barty takes on Karolina Pliskova for the famous trophy.
This is the first Wimbledon final for both women so the stakes are pretty high as they bid to join an illustrious list of former champions and be remembered as one of the greats of the game to get their name on the gold plate.
Ash Barty
The world number one has cruised through this draw so far. She dropped a set in what was an emotional first round match against Carla Suarez Navarro, a player who Barty as well as all of the tour have a great deal of respect for, but since then she has come through with a clean card. There is a fair argument to be made that until the semi-final she never really played anyone of sufficient standing in the game when it comes to grass court tennis but it is still a decent effort to win 11 sets in a row at this level.
Although she didn’t lose a set to Angelique Kerber in the semi-final, she overcame a titanic battle in that match which can only serve her well when it comes to this final. The other thing she has going for her is that she has already won a Grand Slam having taken down the French Open in 2019. She won that final pretty emphatically too so any suggestions that she might wilt on the big stage needn’t get too much air time.
Karolina Pliskova
It has to be said that it is an incredible feat for Karolina Pliskova to be in this final. That isn’t because she doesn’t deserve to be here or isn’t good enough to be here but she came into the tournament having lost both her grass court outings this season and four of her last five matches on all surfaces. Just two months ago she was double bagelled by Iga Swiatek in the Rome final yet despite all of that here she is in a second Grand Slam final.
If there can be criticisms over what Barty has beaten on her way to this final the same can’t be levelled at Pliskova. She has taken care of the likes of Donna Vekic, Berlin champion Ludmilla Samsonova and the big hitting second seed Aryna Sabalenka. There has been a cool, calm exterior about the Czech this fortnight and with her serve working very well and her forehand such a weapon she is entitled to be a real factor in this final.
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Head to Head
These two women are no stranger to facing each other. They have done so on six previous occasions at tour level with Barty leading 4-2. She has won the last three meetings so she is on something of a roll against her Czech opponent. They have met once on the grass in a WTA event which Pliskova won 7-6 7-6. Barty does have a grass court win over Pliskova though from their ITF days. Barty won that in a deciding set. Three of their six tour matches have gone to a third set so the history suggests we are in for a marathon Barty win here.
Betting
I do think we’re in for a lengthy final here. Both women look in good form. I was a little concerned about the movement of Pliskova ahead of her semi-final against Sabalenka and thought that might count against her but she was almost foot perfect in that match. I also liked how she didn’t panic after losing the opening set which bodes well should she fall behind in this final. You know you’ll get a battle with Barty. It is almost her DNA when she steps onto the court so I am expecting a decent final here.
I would imagine there is a good chance that this one will go to a third set. They are both playing for their first Wimbledon singles title so there could be some nerves when it comes to serving for the title which might help with that but even if it doesn’t I can see at least one tight set in the first two if not more. The game line for this final is the seemingly mandatory 21.5 games, a line which has been covered in all but one of their previous six meetings, or seven if you want to include their ITF match. Something like a 7-6 6-3 gets this covered while obviously it is safe as houses if there is a third set. I like the over here.
Tips
Back Over 21.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.85 with William Hill
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