The Premier League season got underway on Friday evening but ahead of the remainder of the opening weekend matches there are a couple more ante-post markets to have a look at. The first of those is the relegation one.
I’ll look to delve into this market as we go along through the season to see if we can turn over a decent profit but here is my initial look at it. As ever three sides will be relegated this term which allows some wiggle room for some value hunting.
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The Favourites
A promoted side is always the favourite to be relegated even though all three promoted sides stayed up with a fair bit in hand last season. Cardiff City have the dubious honour of being the odds on favourites to go straight back down this season and in truth it is hard to argue with that purely because the two that went up with them have been able to spend huge sums of money to have a go at staying in the division. I’m no backer of 4/6 shots over nine months though.
Huddersfield Town are 6/5 second favourites to be relegated and if they are struggling at any point, and in truth I do fear for them this season, then the words second season and syndrome will be spouted out a fair bit. To be fair Huddersfield beat all the odds to survive last season and it would be something truly special for them to stay up once again.
Watford are the third favourites to go down at 9/4 and nothing would give me more pleasure than for that to be the outcome at the end of the campaign. I say that as a Luton fan of course but when I reflect on things objectively there are one or two others around the head of the market that are weaker man for man. I don’t need to back the Hornets to go down as I’d be perfectly happy were they to depart without needing money on it!
The Contenders
Brighton and Hove Albion also defied the odds to stay up last season and now Chris Hughton has signed well in a bid to make things a little easier on themselves this time around. Brighton are 5/2 for the drop but they look like a side who will continue to progress to me rather than one who will stall. I’m not interested in them.
I can’t say I’m interested in Fulham either at the same price. They have signed well and have money to go again in January if they need to. They will play some nice football and have good quality in both boxes. I would be surprised if they end up in trouble. Burnley are just under 4/1 for the drop. Unless their Europa League campaign gets the better of them they will be absolutely fine.
Bournemouth begin the season as 9/2 shots for the drop. It is unusual for a club to make a record signing to then be relegated but the Cherries would want a solid start to stave off any concerns that some might have. They have enough goals in them to be fine I would imagine.
Outsiders
Newcastle are 5/1 for the drop and that actually isn’t a price I would put anyone off of taking. You get the feeling that the strained relations between Rafael Benitez and owner Mike Ashley will come to a head at some point in the next nine months and if it is the Spaniard who goes Newcastle could very well go with him.
Crystal Palace are 11/2 to go down but under Roy Hodgson I don’t see that happening unless their injury list from last season returns to dog them. Now that they have kept hold of Wilfried Zaha I’m near enough certain the Eagles will guarantee another season in the top flight beyond this one.
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Betting
A case can be made for the majority of those named above but the value could well lie in a side who were in deep trouble for much of last season and who only guaranteed their safety in the final week of the campaign in Southampton.
I don’t think Southampton are much stronger than last season. In fact with Sofiane Boufal and Dusan Tadic having left I don’t think it is going too far to say they could even be weaker even allowing for the arrivals of Stuart Armstrong and Mohamed Edyounoussi. Danny Ings is the interesting one for me. He could be an inspired signing but without regular football for going on two years he could just as easily be a flop. Mark Hughes played a major part in Stoke going down last season and at 7/1 I don’t think it can be ruled out that he takes the Saints down too.
Tips
Back Southampton to be relegated for a 2/10 stake at 8.00 with William Hill
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